Pre-season Heisman Watch List

With the AP top 25 just released, it appears that season is open on every possible college football analysis. With that in mind, I am inclined to present my Heisman watch list for the 2014 college football season. There are no real surprises on this list, but keep in mind that for two years running, the Heisman winner has been a freshman, so I give somewhere around a 60-40 chance that I have here given the winner.

Marcus Mariota: QB, Oregon
Mariota was the Heisman frontrunner for most of 2013 before fading down the stretch, suggesting he definitely has the potential to win the award. The athletic junior passed for over 3,600 yards last year and threw 31 touchdowns. Although he has to work on his consistency as a passer (3 games last season completing under 50% of his passes), he makes up for it with almost one rushing touchdown per game. The high powered spread offense around Mariota is of course enormously talented, and tailored almost perfectly to his skill set. Mariota will post Heisman numbers this season, but his campaign will hinge, as per usual, on big wins and big moments. He probably won't be able to win the Heisman if he loses a game, except a BCS playoff game.

Jameis Winston: QB, Florida State

"We strong:" They certainly are this year 

I don't think he'll repeat, but he'll come close. People tend now to forget just how exciting Winston was for all of last season, from the first game. With over 4,000 passing yards in a season and a national championship, he's definitely not the Messiah, but he can play football really well. He set freshman season records for the NCAA in passing yards and touchdowns (with 40, also an ACC single season record.) Winston will have great stats on a great team, behind what is probably the best offensive line in the country. In short, I don't have him first on this list simply because it would be a statistical anomaly.


Bryce Petty: QB, Baylor
Last year's first time starter dropped a casual 4,200 passing yards with 4 interceptions. Not a typo there. At the helm of a shiny and outrageous Baylor offense, which averaged 52.4 points per game, he went to a BCS bowl game and suffered a disappointing loss. Unfortunately, Petty's competition probably won't prove stiff enough to merit a Heisman award, but at one point his stats may speak simply for themselves. In a new stadium, with an upcoming team, Petty is definitely a player to watch this year.

TJ Yeldon: RB, Alabama
Yeldon isn't found close to this high on most lists, but most arguments against him hinge around one point: He has many talented backs behind him, and if his fumbling issues rear their ugly head early in the season, he may not get enough carries to fuel a Heisman campaign. This isn't really a legitimate argument, as that can be said about many players, regardless of depth chart. I hereby concede that yes, if Yeldon fumbles the ball a lot, he won't win a Heisman. That isn't rocket science, nor is it exclusive to the running back from Alabama. He is also vying for a national championship, which means a lot when considering this award. Ultimately, he will prove to be an offensive focal point for possibly the best team in the country, which screams Heisman candidate.

Count on seeing a lot of that this year. 

Brett Hundley: QB, UCLA
He moves, he passed for over 3,000 yards, he leads his team well, (a team which may be contending for the first time ever) and he isn't yet a finished product. He also has the strength of schedule to present the potential Heisman moment, notably against Oregon in week seven. All this means I'd be foolish not to put him on my list. While the hype was a little overdone last year, it wasn't that far off the mark. Definitely a player you'll hear a lot about this season, and in a great conference he should have his share of the limelight.

Dashing, there's no other word for it. 

My dark horse candidate has to be Maty Mauk, Missouri's quarterback for the second half of last season. Missouri was predicted to finish last in the SEC east at the beginning of last season, and instead behind Mauk they maintained a top 10 national ranking for several weeks, eventually reaching #5, and played in the SEC championship game after an 11-1 regular season. There they lost 59-42, but posting 42 points against Auburn's defense is a win when we're talking about Heisman potential. Although he isn't a topic of hot discussion, keep an eye on Mauk this season, as he finished up last season with an impressive win over Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.

Notable omissions:
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
"He's athletic, and they lost Aaron Murray so he'll get tons of carries." Both of these are true, but this is a distinctly lame argument. He was also injured last year, which allows people to point to his decent numbers and say they suggest greatness. He'll play well, but he won't win, or stay in the conversation late.
Braxton Miller: QB, Ohio State
Again, injuries shouldn't insert players into this conversation. He hurt his knee and as a result missed 3 games, but 2,094 passing yards, even over that a shorter interval, does not suggest a Heisman winner. Of course he runs well, and plays for a good team, but the prediction I have seen of 2,500 passing yards, 1,000 rushing yards and 40 combined TD's lies entirely outside the realm of likelihood, in my opinion. However that would probably win the Heisman this year.
Mike Davis: RB, South Carolina
Another great player who won't win a Heisman. Steve Spurrier will rely on him heavily this season, but he's coming off an injury last year, and didn't post spectacular numbers. He's definitely explosive, but we have to be wary of pointing to on field flashiness as a predictor of a Heisman award. He needs great numbers, and probably won't get them. I will say that of these three, I can most easily see Davis staying in the conversation late.

Fiesta Bowl Preview: Baylor (11-1) vs UCF (11-1)

        Ok, this is going to be good. Before you dismiss this as one of the more lopsided BCS bowls in recent memory, (I was tempted to, before I did a little research) consider this: The 15th ranked Knights (not bad, you must admit) have dropped just one game this year, and have a couple big wins over decent opponents such as Louisville and Rutgers, in a 41-17 upset. So this isn't as laughable a matchup as it might immediately seem, if one were to only look at the conferences from which the teams hail, or their histories. This is the biggest game in Knight history, and by virtue of that fact they probably deserve some respect for getting here. All that being said, a 17 point spread is telling, even on such a big stage as a BCS bowl. I won't let the suspense kill you, dear reader. I go Bears, in a shootout for the ages.

Petty will put on a show, make no mistake.

      And I do so in large part because of one young man down in Waco. Bryce Petty did not get as much national or Heisman attention as most now feel he deserved, in retrospect. He was a great player on a great team, he had great moments, and his stats were stratospheric. But New York and the players who were there is now of no concern to the Bears, whose attention can now solely lie in Arizona. This is a high powered offense, a smooth running, well oiled, perfectly drilled machine. The Mercedes Benz of college football offenses, one might say. This isn't even an arguable point by now, as with the regular season in the books the Bears scored on average a whopping 53.3 points. Unheard of, and easily good enough for first in the nation. So  while I won't declare them the best offense in college football (strength of schedule is certainly questionable) it can't be denied that they are good at scoring points. They like doing it, they do it early, often, and they do it well, even against the occasional good team. If the Bears score under 40 points in this game I will be shocked. They should be firing on all cylinders, Petty on the same page as his happy band of talented, explosive receivers, and it will make good watching. Of course that's not to mention running back Lache Seastrunk (makes the list of great running back names, one of the best I'd say) who rushed for 1,000 yards again this season and had 11 touchdowns for the Bears. He will feature prominently as well, I should imagine.

       Now UCF's defense is a major cause of concern, to be sure. Little talent and almost no spine have me thinking Baylor will score when they want to, as stated above. However, this team as well can score points. They dropped 38 on the previously vaunted Louisville defense early in the season, and they scored 41 against Rutgers. Those are two good defenses there, in fact I seem to remember ESPN wanted to crown Louisville one of the best in the country. So both those wins are statement wins, testaments to this offensive power. They are led by junior Blake Bortles, a talented young lad who is actually projected to go top 10 in the 2014 NFL draft should he forgo his senior season. How's that for no name recognition, especially as a great player? So make no mistake, this is a good, well coached offense led by an excellent quarterback. They will score a lot of points as well. Let's say under 30 would have me genuinely, sincerely shocked.

Can the Knights rise to the occasion? I suspect victory is beyond their grasp.

        They will score a lot, but it won't be enough. This one goes to the Bears, easily, but I will watch without a doubt, as this could easily be one of the highest scoring BCS bowl games in recent memory. Seriously, this might bring you back to West Virginia 70 -Clemson 33, or perhaps the less lopsided but no less exciting Boise St. 43- Oklahoma 42. It's definitely possible that this game would match, or even dare I say surpass, such ludicrous days of yore. So who doesn't want to see, as I predict, Baylor 53 UCF 38?

Five College Football Games to Watch (Week 13)

Well it's not the best week I've ever seen, but this Saturday in the world of collegiate pigskin deserves your attention for several reasons. As the season comes to a close, every game is an opportunity not to earn a berth, but to lose one. What a twisted world. Anyways, that's the way it goes, so if you're favorite team is in the top 10 right now, hold your breath and cross every appendage of your body that they'll run the table at this point. It's been a great season, with some memorable games, but these next 3 weeks should be the most exciting part, as per usual. Here are 5 games to watch this weekend, in no particular order, with my (humble) predictions:

9 Texas A&M @ 18LSU: The Tigers are coming off a loss to be proud of, while the Aggies look to secure a BCS bid, perhaps. While they are more or less out of the SEC title game running, they can still finish the season well, despite a poor defense. That soft defense has plagued them all season, leading to losses in games where their studly young quarterback puts up 41 (ahem, Alabama.) Speaking of whom,  Johnny Manziel is definitely another reason to watch this one, as all of a sudden some are questioning Jameis Winston's stranglehold on New York glory. I am not one to call for Winston's head just yet, (I reserve judgement, if you were interested) but we will have to see how it plays out. Regardless, the Winston case has thrown a wrinkle into the perfect little Heisman world, and for Johnny Manziel that means hope, if he can do something incredible against LSU and then Missouri next week. Closing out the season with 2 top 10 opponents means 2 oppurtunities to prove his legitimacy. Johnny Football knows this, and you can bet he wants to secure his status as frontrunner. Now is when one wins a Heisman race. I think we'll see Manziel do just that (not win per se, but at least make a good case), and people forget, as good as LSU is, they have lost thrice this season! Zach Mettenberger let me down last week, and though his two big outside threats (Jarvis Landry and Odell Becham) had some big plays, they couldn't finish the game against the Tide. I won't fall for LSU again, and say Texas A&M 31 - LSU 17

BYU @ Notre Dame: Call me a homer, but I've watched every ND game this season, as I'm a big fan. While their season ended with a loss to Pitt a couple of weeks ago, this should prove to be a good one. These are simply two traditionally powerful football teams, and while neither has lived up to potential this year, that doesn't mean we won't see great talent on display. I'll be watching for several reasons: It's Senior Day in Southbend, usually emotional, and BYU plays well against the Irish, every time. Regardless of rankings, or lack thereof, this is a good game without fail, and I go ND 27 - BYU 21

19 Arizona St. @ 14 UCLA: The Bruins have played their best in losses this season, while the Sun Devils have won 5 straight. We should see some great Pac 12 football, especially in the wake of Stanford and Oregon losses. Now these teams have something big to play for. I give this one to a high powered Sun Devil offense, although it should be an excellent matchup against the Bruin defense that contained even the mighty Ducks for a half this season. Arizona St. 24 - UCLA 16

8 Missouri @ 24 Ole Miss: For whatever reason, almost every college football guru has the Rebels in this one. I don't see that, as even with the Rebels at home there is clearly a superior team here. The Tigers have dropped one game all season in the mighty SEC and incredibly they are this close to an SEC title game. I can't see 13 year veteran head coach Gary Pinkel letting his fine Mizzou squad drop a game of this importance. They've stepped up big in some huge games already this year, including wins over Georgia and Florida. So I go against the grain and back the favorite? I guess so. Missouri 31 Ole Miss 20 

Bryce Petty's been doing that a lot this season. 

3 Baylor @ 11 OSU: This is the one to watch this weekend. It could easily be the most fun I have this college football season. I honestly can't begin to say how excited I am for this Big 12 matchup. I have been eyeing (and writing about) this game for three weeks now, as Baylor went into the only tough stretch of the season not having faced a quality opponent up to that point. Now the Bears are on the other side of games against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, and have two nice wins on the record. So this game is it, for Bryce Petty's Heisman hopes (again, we're waiting on Jameis Winston's eligibility) and Baylor's BCS title bid. Granted, even if they win in convincing fashion, they need Alabama or the Seminoles to drop a game to make it, but if, no when the Bears win this one big they can say without a doubt they are for real. This is a team that can score. They do it, early, often, and well. They seem to enjoy it, and now we've seen they can do it against pretty good football teams. The Cowboys qualify as such, so this game is huge. The Bears are now undoubtedly a team of national prominence, and I must say it suits them. It's gonna be great, and I see Baylor 42 OSU 27. 

Seriously, watch that game if no other. If you're a fan of college football, or even just sports, or, nay, just excitement, watch this game. After Winston's semi allegations exploded, Bryce Petty's odds to win the Heisman surged correspondingly. We'll have to wait and see.

Heisman Watch Week 12

I was let down this week, when I saw Marcus Mariota lay an egg for three quarters against Stanford. Of course, this makes my job easier as it clears out the top of my list a little, but I'm unwilling to banish the Hawaiian completely from the top 5, something of an overreaction. Anyways, call it unfair, but a loss for a quarterback is like a weight tied to his feet. It would be really tough for Mariota to shake it off and rise back to the top. Does he still have the best stats in college football? By a shade. But he has one important statistic that others may not: a 1 in the loss column. And so, I declare this

1) Jameis Winston's race to lose. He was previously second in my list, but now he has two huge victories this season (then 3 Clemson and then 7 Miami) he can point to, and in both of those games he stepped up big time. He has played his best football against his best opponents this season. That matters a lot in an MVP race, but more importantly his team won big, which is more than Marcus Mariota can say. Famous Jameis is simply looking like the best player in college football. While I could take some heat because everyone is saying this, Winston now controls his own destiny. If he wins out, even only semi-convincingly, he will most certainly find himself in New York, on a stage, stumbling through a speech written by a PR agent for the Seminoles. I tip my hat to the freshman, who is having a run for the ages. Although he is coming off a terrible day against Wake Forest (160 yards passing and a bad interception in a blow out victory) the only thing close to Winston in this race is his shadow, and even that he's beating by several lengths. I mean he is now 1-5 odds to win the race. For those who are confused, or simply less versed in the ways of the track, that means you'll make 1 dollar for every 5 you bet on him to win. In complete layman terms: he's such a lock that they won't give you much of a reward at all for picking him. Those are ridiculous odds. He is opening up a lead that we haven't in a long time for the Heisman: a true no doubter, like the Pats in the playoffs or Koji Uehara in the ninth. Get used to seeing his name up here.

Chances are, that ball's a completion

2) Bryce Petty is second now just because I wanted him to have a big day against a good defense, it looked like he wasn't going to, but then he pulled it out. And by pulling it out, I mean a 41-12 curb-stomping of the Sooners. Oklahoma fields a pretty darn good football team, but Petty left no doubt about the superiority of his squad. He has now passed for close to 2,700 yards in 8 games, and is at the head of a beautiful offense. It is truly a pleasure to watch the Bears march down the field. For over a quarter, they had me scared with their ineffectiveness last Thursday, but when they found their rhythm… oh boy. Petty passed for 3 touchdowns and ran for 2, and he is looking like, dare I say it, a fairly NFL ready quarterback. He just showed up in a major way, and looks to continue the magic against OSU this weekend. His odds went from 28-1 to 8-1, so he remains a long shot. Interestingly, Vegas prefers Johnny Football (at a 3-1 pick). Obviously I disagree.

3) AJ McCarron is a little overrated, to be honest, but that's just making up for 2 years of neglect, so I suppose it's fair. I have to hand it to him, he proved his quality against a good LSU team in a terrific game. If you missed it, it was tied in Tuscaloosa midway through the third when the Tide decided to win the game. They proceeded to score 21 unanswered points en route to a comfortable 38-17 victory. The latest great installment in this rivalry was not only enormously entertaining, but demonstrative of McCarron's (and his team's) ability to take over a game, even against a great opponent. This wasn't a perfect game for 'Bama, but McCarron's 3 touchdown passes proved to be the difference maker and they ended up winning big. LSU looked ready to make a statement against Alabama, but the Tide responded by playing their best half of college football this season, in the words of Nick Saban. McCarron was obviously a major factor in this, and I have to agree. As for LSU, fumbling on your first 2 processions is not how you beat a great team.

4) Johnny Manziel has now passed for 3,313 yards this season. That is flatly ridiculous, and beats other (present and former) frontrunners Mariota and Winston by several hundred yards. How then, is he not at the top of this prestigious list? Two losses (due to a now completely pathetic, floating belly-up defense) in big games this season are keeping Johnny from the trophy. Two losses to Alabama and Auburn in which he scored a combined 83 points, but two losses all the same. That, plus the general sense of somewhat sloppy play at times (11 picks) will keep Johnny Football from repeating the feat this year. To the Dallas columnists crying out that he should be the lock this year, I point out those two facts.

5) Marcus Mariota will not win the Heisman this year. He has yet to throw a pick, (for a nice 22:0 touchdown to interception ratio) a fact I have always found remarkable and repeated often, but all of a sudden he has fumbled the ball 8 times. A couple of those (including one in the red zone) proved ultimately costly against Stanford last week in a 6 point in-conference loss. Ah well, I guess Alabama Oregon wasn't the game we all wanted to see after all. Unfortunately for Mariota, a late loss in a thinning Heisman crowd will lose you the race. Manziel is above him, because his losses occurred earlier in the season. Call it what you like (unfair, perhaps?), that's college football. Oregon's offense lost that sense of otherworldliness this week, that sheen of perfection which seemed to drive them forward no matter what the opponent. They were stopped just enough times against Stanford, simply put. As the offense goes, so go Mariota's Heisman hopes. Still a great football team, still a great player, but only up here because no one else really fills the 5 hole.

And there you have my top 5 for Heisman week 12, although really only the top 1 is relevant.
Just as an interesting side note, this has been bouncing around the college football universe this week.
Player of the week:
UCLA Bruin Myles Jack: six carries for 120 yards and a touchdown, 8 tackles, a tackle for a loss, a fumble recovery and 2 passes broken up.
That's right. He played linebacker and running back last week against Arizona. My initial reaction was very "You've got to be kidding…" But there it is on the stat sheet. Good Lord. This freshman is probably destined for something special. He is won the Pac 12 offensive player of the week award… despite being a linebacker.

College Football Picks (Week 11)

The best Thursday night in the history of college football, without a doubt. I guess the NCAA doesn't like making money, because if they did one of these games would be primetime Friday night, and another couple on Saturday. But I'll be watching anyways, and so should you, because this is the best week in college football this season. Here are the 5 biggest games, and my picks.

(In terms of predictions, I repeat my philosophy that fortune favors the bold. So if you see unorthodoxy here, or strangely specific calls, I don't expect to get them all right, it's just what I see possibly happening. A fair amount of analysis and statistics go into these, but for the most part I can only hope to be close.)

Stanford defense doing what they do best

2 Oregon @ 6 Stanford: This is going to be great Thursday night football, with the Ducks excited to demolish another wanna be PAC 12 champion (ahem, UCLA) and an incredibly tough, physical Stanford front 7 looking to put a certain Heisman frontrunner on his back. These guys are a scary group, but I believe Oregon's offensive line will rise to the occasion. We all remember the Cardinal's 17-14 OT win last year, the only thing keeping Oregon from a national championship. This looks to be another great game, with a more mature Mariota leading the Duck's charge. If Stanford wins this game it will be with huge defensive play, though that goes without saying. You can't beat the Ducks without defense, because they'll drop 28 on you in a half, no sweat. Between Byron Marshall and, of course, DeAnthony Thomas at running back and everyone's favorite Hawaiian at quarterback, I don't see even Stanford stopping this squad from scoring early and often. Stanford has been great against the run all year, and in total they've allowed only 19 points per game, but that won't stop me from betting the farm on the best offense in the country. Especially when headed by Mariota, who is looking for a big Heisman moment after a bye week. You can also count on Oregon's defense (a seriously underrated group) to not miss many tackles and not to blow much coverage. Oregon 31 Stanford 10

12 Oklahoma @ 5 Baylor: I have had Bryce Petty in my Heisman rankings for 3 weeks now, and it's getting kind of boring to see him score 60 points a game against 9 year old girl flag football teams. I am very excited to see if he can do it (and by "it" I mean score at least 35) against a team that can play some serious football, and Oklahoma is fielding just that. After an "out-of-nowhere-but-didn't-we-kinda-expect-that"loss in the crazy Red River rivalry to an unranked Longhorn team, Oklahoma has looked really, really good. I pick the Bears here because I'm Petty's biggest fan, but not by much. They win this one in a squeaker and a shootout. If both teams score their average points, this game will end with almost 100 points on the board. Of course that won't happen, but it'd be nice to see Baylor actually play some defense, and though this will be a high scoring game it will be the Bear's defense who wins it late, in their first big stand of a high scoring game. I'll be watching this during Oregon Stanford commercials, and I expect to see Baylor 42 Oklahoma 38

Jarvis Landry has almost 900 yards this season

10 LSU @ 1 Alabama: Could it be? Could this be the week we see the Tide tumble? No, it won't be. But I think this week many people will learn that this is not a perfect football team, by any stretch of the imagination. People always assume that without question Alabama's defense is flawless, but they have looked bad at times this season. Remember, they let Manziel score 42 against them earlier this season, and their secondary in particular has been at times suspect. This is a match made in heaven, then, because Zach Mettenberger (a good SEC quarterback who is always forgotten, somehow) has two explosive threats on the outside; Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. These two are his top targets, and I see both of them, especially Landry, teaming up with Metts to expose 'Bama's at times unexperienced secondary. Obviously this is a huge rivalry game, and the atmosphere alone should be reason enough to watch. In the end, however, this one will again be about AJ McCarron and his talented receiving core, TJ Yeldon and his money sign double throat slash, and Nick Saban and his creepy ability to outcoach anyone, even Les Miles. Tune in Saturday night to see an incredible football game. Alabama 31 LSU 24

Virginia Tech @ 14 Miami: Now three weeks ago this could easily have been a top 10 matchup, but just because both teams (in particular the Hokies) have gotten spanked recently doesn't mean this one won't be worth watching. I also just like the ACC, and like the idea of their being a relevant conference in college football. Between the 'Noles, Tigers, and 'Canes, even the SEC fans have to admit that some teams here can play. Logan Thomas has looked terrible in two losses to Duke and BC, but here's hoping he steps up against a humbled Miami team. 7 was the highest ranking in a long time for the Hurricanes, but an second half egg laying against FSU (they were down 21-14 after the first half, but ended up losing 41-14) banished them way down the rankings. This will be a better game than people expect, and a quarterback desperate to improve his spiraling draft stock in Logan Thomas will make some big plays, leading the Hokies to a big upset win, their first in 3 weeks. Virginia Tech 23 Miami 17

Nebraska @ Michigan: Two perennial Pac 10 powerhouses go at it Saturday afternoon, but it must be said that I hate to put a game between two unranked teams in my top 5. However these squads started the season ranked 18th and 17th, respectively, which shows the type of talent that will be on display this week. Nebraska is coming off a Hail Mary win against Northwestern, while Michigan looks to beat a conference rival. Both teams are limping into this game, as Nebraska's season was declared a wash after a loss to Minnesota and Michigan has lost twice this season, while barely beating Akron and UConn. Each squad has their fair share of injuries as well. Although things haven't gone as planned this season for either team, both are looking for defining moments here, and for both teams this would be one of the biggest wins of the season. This is a rematch of a great Sugar Bowl from a couple of years back, and this time around I see Devin Gardner coming back after a 7 sack day (not fun) against MSU and having a big game. Both teams are resilient, both will respond, making this fun to watch. Michigan 28 Nebraska 20

Heisman Watch Week 11

Unless you like Army-Air Force (and trust me, you don't) this past week was intensely boring, and this coming from a dedicated college football fan. There were two games of big ranked opponents, but as it turned out neither one was very close; OSU beat Texas Tech big, and the 'Noles dropped 41 on an angry Miami team. Does Jameis Winston now deserve the 1 spot? That remains to be seen, but personally I think he'll lose it after Mariota's humongous day against Stanford this coming Thursday night. So remember, these are subject to change. I think the Duck will win the Heisman race. Plus, I like saying that. The Duck for Heisman! Just a thought, but for a team that's all about swagger, sick uniforms, recruits, and being the coolest team on the field, a duck is kinda a lame mascot. You have to embrace it, I guess.

1) Jameis Winston created quite the conundrum for those of us trying to put together a Heisman watch list. On an off week for frontrunner Marcus Mariota, Winston threw for 325 yards (good) but also 2 picks (bad) and only 1 touchdown (also bad). However his squad came up with a statement win, and so he's batting leadoff this week. I had to give it to him. Again, I believe that a team's success is essential in determining the value of a quarterback candidate. Not to mention he has now broken the 2500 yards passing mark, in 8 games, as a freshman. The one misgiving I have about Winston up here (it's getting pretty lonely) is his 6 picks on the season. This doesn't sound like a problem, until you realize...

Mariota has thrown for 20 touchdowns in 8 games this season

2) Marcus Mariota has 0. That's right, he hasn't thrown an interception yet this season. That, along with his 29 total touchdowns, put him in a prime position to seize the top spot next week. Life must be pretty good for the Ducks. They are looking forward to a thrashing of another wanna be PAC 12 champ this week in the Cardinal, and they are set on cruising to an undefeated season. I'm a little too confident they'll win, but see my next article for predictions in that and other games this upcoming week. Meanwhile Mariota can look forward to his Heisman moment, feasting on the Stanford secondary. If, of course, his offensive line can keep him off his back, because a very scary Stanford front 7 needs to be contained if Mariota wants to win big, on the field and in my rankings.

3) Bryce Petty is also coming off a bye (this week really, really sucked) but other 2nd tier candidates had byes as well, and so here he is. A schedule of pathetic caliber cannot negate entirely what the junior QB has done down in Waco this season. His Bear squad are averaging 63.9 points a game, and in 7 games so far he has passed for 2453 yards. Thank God he has 3 ranked opponents in the next three weeks. Baylor vs Oklahoma, also on Thursday night, will be a great game during Oregon-Stanford commercials, but again see the next article folks. Petty is about to force himself into the elite conversation or entirely eliminate himself from it, but we'll see if his ridiculous numbers translate against an actual football team.

4) AJ McCarron is the lucky candidate this week, as he moves up after a bye, but more and more people are talking about him simply because Alabama has looked so, so good. We also can't forget that for the most part, an SEC schedule is really tough on a quarterback. That being said, I will never subscribe to the "an average quarterback in the SEC would dominate in any other conference" school of thought. I disagree with this because, although the SEC is the best conference in college football, the PAC 12 and Big 12 can now kinda contest that, and although McCarron has had some nasty defenses to play this year, he has also had the opportunity to feast on the likes of Colorado St, Georgia St, and Kentucky. So strength of schedule balances out in the end, and McCarron does not deserve the Heisman this year, yet. Sorry, college football trend setters.

5) Johnny Manziel wins the award for strangest 57 point performance by a quarterback this week.  Obviously he could relax a little, but his seasonal numbers may have taken a hit as he passed for only 273 yards against UTEP. In less than 3 quarters however, he scored 6 touchdowns. Go figure. Manziel remains out of the true contending conversation, and barring huge conference performances against LSU and Missouri, he doesn't have the numbers or the record to repeat the feat this year. He still remains behind Bryce Petty at least, if Mariota and Winston ever stop being awesome. This is unfair, as he has had some great moments and some great games, but still 2 losses condemn him. Manziel's defense is floating belly-up at this point, and seems to have given up on the whole "don't let them score" philosophy against any ranked opponent. It is bad in College Station, but Manziel keeps me watching Aggie games when I can.

Heisman Watch (Week 10)

A shallow foray into the plethora of college football coverage out there (googling "Heisman watch") quickly reveals the flavor of our Heisman week after last Saturday, a day where the top 5 or so prospects shined, some on bigger stages than others. AJ McCarron is finally making some noise, proving my point that for a quarterback candidate (so, any candidate) team success is almost as important as the numbers. There's a new guy who's cracked my list here, hello Bryce Petty, and though he has yet to prove himself in a big game he'll shortly be getting the call, which should be fun to watch. Without further ado…

1) Marcus Mariota had an off week, I'll be the first to admit. I had him pegged for 400 yards through the air against the Bruins last Saturday, but he fell back to earth with a mediocre 21-28 for 230 yards passing yards, with 1 TD and nothing really going on the ground. That being said, you don't lose Heisman races with average performances, and we can look at what Mariota didn't do: He didn't turn the ball over in a big game, and he didn't lose. In fact, he won big, a 42-14 stomping over the much lauded Bruin defense. Without a bad performance, I can't bring myself to drop the Hawaiian from my one spot, keeping my eye on his so far video-game like numbers. Numbers like 2281 yards through the air, 20 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions through 8 games. Oregon remains unbeaten, and two studly running backs (DeAnthony Thomas and Byron Marshall, who combined for five TD's last week) will keep the pressure off Mariota, allowing him to go deep for big plays and run the ball a fair amount (we know Heisman voters love their dual threat QB's) As long as Oregon is winning big, (and they don't look like they're planning on stopping)  Mariota will reign supreme. Back to my theory that a winning team will keep it's quarterback in the Heisman picture, even after an off day.

2) Jameis Winston had a 35 point first quarter against the Wolfpack. Now had NCST looked like anything but a half decent middle school flag football team out there, Winston would be getting more praise and we would be hearing more about his deserving the #1 ranking. However the Wolfpack could have run their cheerleaders out there to show some proper tackling technique, and so this week, tough luck Jameis, but you stay in the two hole. Winston gets the opportunity this week in a huge game against #7 Miami (almost everyone else will be at home, watching during a bye week, including Mariota) so check next week to see if these two have traded places. Winston has already stepped up big against Clemson, but this game is, if possible, as important. An in state traditional rival, a top 10 team, a big conference matchup… Keep in mind as well that almost every other team in the top 10 has a bye week, and so all eyes on famous Jameis this Saturday. He could very well have his (second) Heisman moment.

3) AJ McCarron: I am not a huge fan of McCarron, but at this point you have to hand it to the guy. He's the leader of what is really looking like an unstoppable team. Alabama will play in the national championship this year, and chances are McCarron will win his third national title. No wonder his girlfriend's… well… 3 national titles! Just the sound of that makes you imagine sports center exploding. Here come the dynasty montages, here comes the historical perspective, here come the interviews, and more interviews, and more montages, the "Best Ever?" tab on the left hand side of the screen...but I digress. McCarron has looked like an NFL quarterback this year, simply put, against for the most part very impressive SEC defenses. With a great receiving core at his disposal (see an earlier article) and every quarterback's best friend in TJ Yeldon (money sign double throat slash), McCarron has clawed himself into this race. He's still about 400 passing yards short of making my top spot, but as the big no doubter wins pile up, we have to ask "how much longer can he not be in the conversation?"

4) Johnny Manziel had some choice words last Saturday on the Jumbotron down in College Station this week, (really? Tiger Woods? Did anyone else find that kind of strange?) but Heisman voters will grudgingly give him this: the kid can play. No matter what he does off the field, short of second degree murder, he will remain on the field, and when he's on the field there's a sense that anything can happen. This is why he's so much fun to watch. He dazzled again against Vanderbilt this week, a nice 53 spot which featured 4 touchdowns.  However with 2 losses, (in which he scored a combined 83 points against Alabama and Auburn defenses) his team has dragged him almost out of the race. Some people still love the kid for number one, but for me you need to be leading your team to undefeated greatness. Many would disagree with that standard, but when there are Marcus Mariota's and Jameis Winston's out there, I know who goes in my top spots.

5) Bryce Petty: Here's an easy way to drag yourself into the national conversation: Score an average 63.7 points a game. The junior quarterback down in Baylor has long had reason to quietly raise his hand and ask why he isn't being talked about, but apparently one Heisman quarterback from Baylor is enough for the next several years. Petty had big shoes (or big socks) to fill after RGIII's Heisman career at Baylor, but he has proved he's more than up to the task. For now, this guy still isn't in the elite category simply because his schedule has been softer than mashed potatoes, but he must be licking his chops: The next 3 weeks (after a bye this time around) bring Baylor some real football teams, in #13 Oklahoma, #15 Texas Tech, and #18 Oklahoma State. The entire Bears team has been waiting for these three games, to put on an offensive show like they are capable of, but in particular this is Petty's time to step up. If he does, I don't know what will do in the BCS or the Heisman conversation.