Five College Football Games to Watch (Week 13)

Well it's not the best week I've ever seen, but this Saturday in the world of collegiate pigskin deserves your attention for several reasons. As the season comes to a close, every game is an opportunity not to earn a berth, but to lose one. What a twisted world. Anyways, that's the way it goes, so if you're favorite team is in the top 10 right now, hold your breath and cross every appendage of your body that they'll run the table at this point. It's been a great season, with some memorable games, but these next 3 weeks should be the most exciting part, as per usual. Here are 5 games to watch this weekend, in no particular order, with my (humble) predictions:

9 Texas A&M @ 18LSU: The Tigers are coming off a loss to be proud of, while the Aggies look to secure a BCS bid, perhaps. While they are more or less out of the SEC title game running, they can still finish the season well, despite a poor defense. That soft defense has plagued them all season, leading to losses in games where their studly young quarterback puts up 41 (ahem, Alabama.) Speaking of whom,  Johnny Manziel is definitely another reason to watch this one, as all of a sudden some are questioning Jameis Winston's stranglehold on New York glory. I am not one to call for Winston's head just yet, (I reserve judgement, if you were interested) but we will have to see how it plays out. Regardless, the Winston case has thrown a wrinkle into the perfect little Heisman world, and for Johnny Manziel that means hope, if he can do something incredible against LSU and then Missouri next week. Closing out the season with 2 top 10 opponents means 2 oppurtunities to prove his legitimacy. Johnny Football knows this, and you can bet he wants to secure his status as frontrunner. Now is when one wins a Heisman race. I think we'll see Manziel do just that (not win per se, but at least make a good case), and people forget, as good as LSU is, they have lost thrice this season! Zach Mettenberger let me down last week, and though his two big outside threats (Jarvis Landry and Odell Becham) had some big plays, they couldn't finish the game against the Tide. I won't fall for LSU again, and say Texas A&M 31 - LSU 17

BYU @ Notre Dame: Call me a homer, but I've watched every ND game this season, as I'm a big fan. While their season ended with a loss to Pitt a couple of weeks ago, this should prove to be a good one. These are simply two traditionally powerful football teams, and while neither has lived up to potential this year, that doesn't mean we won't see great talent on display. I'll be watching for several reasons: It's Senior Day in Southbend, usually emotional, and BYU plays well against the Irish, every time. Regardless of rankings, or lack thereof, this is a good game without fail, and I go ND 27 - BYU 21

19 Arizona St. @ 14 UCLA: The Bruins have played their best in losses this season, while the Sun Devils have won 5 straight. We should see some great Pac 12 football, especially in the wake of Stanford and Oregon losses. Now these teams have something big to play for. I give this one to a high powered Sun Devil offense, although it should be an excellent matchup against the Bruin defense that contained even the mighty Ducks for a half this season. Arizona St. 24 - UCLA 16

8 Missouri @ 24 Ole Miss: For whatever reason, almost every college football guru has the Rebels in this one. I don't see that, as even with the Rebels at home there is clearly a superior team here. The Tigers have dropped one game all season in the mighty SEC and incredibly they are this close to an SEC title game. I can't see 13 year veteran head coach Gary Pinkel letting his fine Mizzou squad drop a game of this importance. They've stepped up big in some huge games already this year, including wins over Georgia and Florida. So I go against the grain and back the favorite? I guess so. Missouri 31 Ole Miss 20 

Bryce Petty's been doing that a lot this season. 

3 Baylor @ 11 OSU: This is the one to watch this weekend. It could easily be the most fun I have this college football season. I honestly can't begin to say how excited I am for this Big 12 matchup. I have been eyeing (and writing about) this game for three weeks now, as Baylor went into the only tough stretch of the season not having faced a quality opponent up to that point. Now the Bears are on the other side of games against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, and have two nice wins on the record. So this game is it, for Bryce Petty's Heisman hopes (again, we're waiting on Jameis Winston's eligibility) and Baylor's BCS title bid. Granted, even if they win in convincing fashion, they need Alabama or the Seminoles to drop a game to make it, but if, no when the Bears win this one big they can say without a doubt they are for real. This is a team that can score. They do it, early, often, and well. They seem to enjoy it, and now we've seen they can do it against pretty good football teams. The Cowboys qualify as such, so this game is huge. The Bears are now undoubtedly a team of national prominence, and I must say it suits them. It's gonna be great, and I see Baylor 42 OSU 27. 

Seriously, watch that game if no other. If you're a fan of college football, or even just sports, or, nay, just excitement, watch this game. After Winston's semi allegations exploded, Bryce Petty's odds to win the Heisman surged correspondingly. We'll have to wait and see.

Heisman Watch Week 12

I was let down this week, when I saw Marcus Mariota lay an egg for three quarters against Stanford. Of course, this makes my job easier as it clears out the top of my list a little, but I'm unwilling to banish the Hawaiian completely from the top 5, something of an overreaction. Anyways, call it unfair, but a loss for a quarterback is like a weight tied to his feet. It would be really tough for Mariota to shake it off and rise back to the top. Does he still have the best stats in college football? By a shade. But he has one important statistic that others may not: a 1 in the loss column. And so, I declare this

1) Jameis Winston's race to lose. He was previously second in my list, but now he has two huge victories this season (then 3 Clemson and then 7 Miami) he can point to, and in both of those games he stepped up big time. He has played his best football against his best opponents this season. That matters a lot in an MVP race, but more importantly his team won big, which is more than Marcus Mariota can say. Famous Jameis is simply looking like the best player in college football. While I could take some heat because everyone is saying this, Winston now controls his own destiny. If he wins out, even only semi-convincingly, he will most certainly find himself in New York, on a stage, stumbling through a speech written by a PR agent for the Seminoles. I tip my hat to the freshman, who is having a run for the ages. Although he is coming off a terrible day against Wake Forest (160 yards passing and a bad interception in a blow out victory) the only thing close to Winston in this race is his shadow, and even that he's beating by several lengths. I mean he is now 1-5 odds to win the race. For those who are confused, or simply less versed in the ways of the track, that means you'll make 1 dollar for every 5 you bet on him to win. In complete layman terms: he's such a lock that they won't give you much of a reward at all for picking him. Those are ridiculous odds. He is opening up a lead that we haven't in a long time for the Heisman: a true no doubter, like the Pats in the playoffs or Koji Uehara in the ninth. Get used to seeing his name up here.

Chances are, that ball's a completion

2) Bryce Petty is second now just because I wanted him to have a big day against a good defense, it looked like he wasn't going to, but then he pulled it out. And by pulling it out, I mean a 41-12 curb-stomping of the Sooners. Oklahoma fields a pretty darn good football team, but Petty left no doubt about the superiority of his squad. He has now passed for close to 2,700 yards in 8 games, and is at the head of a beautiful offense. It is truly a pleasure to watch the Bears march down the field. For over a quarter, they had me scared with their ineffectiveness last Thursday, but when they found their rhythm… oh boy. Petty passed for 3 touchdowns and ran for 2, and he is looking like, dare I say it, a fairly NFL ready quarterback. He just showed up in a major way, and looks to continue the magic against OSU this weekend. His odds went from 28-1 to 8-1, so he remains a long shot. Interestingly, Vegas prefers Johnny Football (at a 3-1 pick). Obviously I disagree.

3) AJ McCarron is a little overrated, to be honest, but that's just making up for 2 years of neglect, so I suppose it's fair. I have to hand it to him, he proved his quality against a good LSU team in a terrific game. If you missed it, it was tied in Tuscaloosa midway through the third when the Tide decided to win the game. They proceeded to score 21 unanswered points en route to a comfortable 38-17 victory. The latest great installment in this rivalry was not only enormously entertaining, but demonstrative of McCarron's (and his team's) ability to take over a game, even against a great opponent. This wasn't a perfect game for 'Bama, but McCarron's 3 touchdown passes proved to be the difference maker and they ended up winning big. LSU looked ready to make a statement against Alabama, but the Tide responded by playing their best half of college football this season, in the words of Nick Saban. McCarron was obviously a major factor in this, and I have to agree. As for LSU, fumbling on your first 2 processions is not how you beat a great team.

4) Johnny Manziel has now passed for 3,313 yards this season. That is flatly ridiculous, and beats other (present and former) frontrunners Mariota and Winston by several hundred yards. How then, is he not at the top of this prestigious list? Two losses (due to a now completely pathetic, floating belly-up defense) in big games this season are keeping Johnny from the trophy. Two losses to Alabama and Auburn in which he scored a combined 83 points, but two losses all the same. That, plus the general sense of somewhat sloppy play at times (11 picks) will keep Johnny Football from repeating the feat this year. To the Dallas columnists crying out that he should be the lock this year, I point out those two facts.

5) Marcus Mariota will not win the Heisman this year. He has yet to throw a pick, (for a nice 22:0 touchdown to interception ratio) a fact I have always found remarkable and repeated often, but all of a sudden he has fumbled the ball 8 times. A couple of those (including one in the red zone) proved ultimately costly against Stanford last week in a 6 point in-conference loss. Ah well, I guess Alabama Oregon wasn't the game we all wanted to see after all. Unfortunately for Mariota, a late loss in a thinning Heisman crowd will lose you the race. Manziel is above him, because his losses occurred earlier in the season. Call it what you like (unfair, perhaps?), that's college football. Oregon's offense lost that sense of otherworldliness this week, that sheen of perfection which seemed to drive them forward no matter what the opponent. They were stopped just enough times against Stanford, simply put. As the offense goes, so go Mariota's Heisman hopes. Still a great football team, still a great player, but only up here because no one else really fills the 5 hole.

And there you have my top 5 for Heisman week 12, although really only the top 1 is relevant.
Just as an interesting side note, this has been bouncing around the college football universe this week.
Player of the week:
UCLA Bruin Myles Jack: six carries for 120 yards and a touchdown, 8 tackles, a tackle for a loss, a fumble recovery and 2 passes broken up.
That's right. He played linebacker and running back last week against Arizona. My initial reaction was very "You've got to be kidding…" But there it is on the stat sheet. Good Lord. This freshman is probably destined for something special. He is won the Pac 12 offensive player of the week award… despite being a linebacker.

Heisman Watch Week 11

Unless you like Army-Air Force (and trust me, you don't) this past week was intensely boring, and this coming from a dedicated college football fan. There were two games of big ranked opponents, but as it turned out neither one was very close; OSU beat Texas Tech big, and the 'Noles dropped 41 on an angry Miami team. Does Jameis Winston now deserve the 1 spot? That remains to be seen, but personally I think he'll lose it after Mariota's humongous day against Stanford this coming Thursday night. So remember, these are subject to change. I think the Duck will win the Heisman race. Plus, I like saying that. The Duck for Heisman! Just a thought, but for a team that's all about swagger, sick uniforms, recruits, and being the coolest team on the field, a duck is kinda a lame mascot. You have to embrace it, I guess.

1) Jameis Winston created quite the conundrum for those of us trying to put together a Heisman watch list. On an off week for frontrunner Marcus Mariota, Winston threw for 325 yards (good) but also 2 picks (bad) and only 1 touchdown (also bad). However his squad came up with a statement win, and so he's batting leadoff this week. I had to give it to him. Again, I believe that a team's success is essential in determining the value of a quarterback candidate. Not to mention he has now broken the 2500 yards passing mark, in 8 games, as a freshman. The one misgiving I have about Winston up here (it's getting pretty lonely) is his 6 picks on the season. This doesn't sound like a problem, until you realize...

Mariota has thrown for 20 touchdowns in 8 games this season

2) Marcus Mariota has 0. That's right, he hasn't thrown an interception yet this season. That, along with his 29 total touchdowns, put him in a prime position to seize the top spot next week. Life must be pretty good for the Ducks. They are looking forward to a thrashing of another wanna be PAC 12 champ this week in the Cardinal, and they are set on cruising to an undefeated season. I'm a little too confident they'll win, but see my next article for predictions in that and other games this upcoming week. Meanwhile Mariota can look forward to his Heisman moment, feasting on the Stanford secondary. If, of course, his offensive line can keep him off his back, because a very scary Stanford front 7 needs to be contained if Mariota wants to win big, on the field and in my rankings.

3) Bryce Petty is also coming off a bye (this week really, really sucked) but other 2nd tier candidates had byes as well, and so here he is. A schedule of pathetic caliber cannot negate entirely what the junior QB has done down in Waco this season. His Bear squad are averaging 63.9 points a game, and in 7 games so far he has passed for 2453 yards. Thank God he has 3 ranked opponents in the next three weeks. Baylor vs Oklahoma, also on Thursday night, will be a great game during Oregon-Stanford commercials, but again see the next article folks. Petty is about to force himself into the elite conversation or entirely eliminate himself from it, but we'll see if his ridiculous numbers translate against an actual football team.

4) AJ McCarron is the lucky candidate this week, as he moves up after a bye, but more and more people are talking about him simply because Alabama has looked so, so good. We also can't forget that for the most part, an SEC schedule is really tough on a quarterback. That being said, I will never subscribe to the "an average quarterback in the SEC would dominate in any other conference" school of thought. I disagree with this because, although the SEC is the best conference in college football, the PAC 12 and Big 12 can now kinda contest that, and although McCarron has had some nasty defenses to play this year, he has also had the opportunity to feast on the likes of Colorado St, Georgia St, and Kentucky. So strength of schedule balances out in the end, and McCarron does not deserve the Heisman this year, yet. Sorry, college football trend setters.

5) Johnny Manziel wins the award for strangest 57 point performance by a quarterback this week.  Obviously he could relax a little, but his seasonal numbers may have taken a hit as he passed for only 273 yards against UTEP. In less than 3 quarters however, he scored 6 touchdowns. Go figure. Manziel remains out of the true contending conversation, and barring huge conference performances against LSU and Missouri, he doesn't have the numbers or the record to repeat the feat this year. He still remains behind Bryce Petty at least, if Mariota and Winston ever stop being awesome. This is unfair, as he has had some great moments and some great games, but still 2 losses condemn him. Manziel's defense is floating belly-up at this point, and seems to have given up on the whole "don't let them score" philosophy against any ranked opponent. It is bad in College Station, but Manziel keeps me watching Aggie games when I can.

Heisman Watch (Week 9)

Well, it's that time of the year again. When Mark May and Lou Holtz finally stop pretending to like each other and we see all out warfare on our TV screens, when the air gets cold and 2nd string quarterbacks get colder, when, finally, teams with one loss are allowed to be in the top 5. In short, college football is past the halfway mark, and we're closing in on the game we've all been waiting for, but more on that later. After a week 8 which saw 5 top 10 teams fall, the crowd is thin at the top, and the Heisman race is thinner. However, although it may seem like a 2, maybe a 3 pony race for now, one mediocre performance can see the latest flavor of the week tumble. In short, the fact that this is pretty boring right now does not mean that it will finish that way. Keep that in mind as you read these rankings.

1) Marcus Mariota: A couple of fun facts about the young lad who hails from Honolulu. Well, there's one already. He can only hope his Heisman candidacy (and his draft stock) will fare better than that of another famous Hawaiian born college football player. Anyways, Mariota was offered 2 scholarships coming out of high school (a team on which he did not start as QB until his senior year). He wisely chose Oregon over the University of Memphis, and at Oregon he became the first freshman to start the season opener for the Ducks in 22 years. To cut a long story short, as an athletic 18 year old (what have I done with my life?) he led the Ducks to a 11-1 season and a #2 final season ranking in the AP poll. But the Heisman is, of course, about production during this season. Mariota has improved by leaps and bounds this season. He has scored 403 points in 7 games this season, a tidy 57.6 for those of you keeping score at home. He has thrown for 2051 yards, 19 TD's, and no picks, though he has fumbled the ball twice. He has rushed for 493 yards and 9 TD's, averaging 10.1 yards a carry. These are not stats from a video game, or from the end of the season. He has accounted for 4 TD's a game. Admittedly, he has done this against for the most part cupcake opposition, but 2 big games against #12 UCLA and #6 Stanford should give the guy a chance to prove his mettle on the big stage. I have no doubt that he will, and thus, I proclaim this still his race to lose.

2) I know, bold words, especially after Jameis Winston's 51 points against Clemson, the most ever dropped on the Tigers in Death Valley. If you watch any respectable amount of ESPN, you know this about their college football coverage: Boy, do they love them a "Heisman moment." In fact, it seems at times that all they care about is getting a good "Heisman moment." Well Jimmy boy undoubtedly had his last week; In a top 5 matchup within his conference, as a freshman, he embarrassed a very good football team. But a closer look at the numbers reveals a case for the Heisman way beyond one game. He has a 71.3% completion rate, 1885 yards through the air, and 20 TD's. Notice, as impressive as these statistics are, they fall short of Mariota's, against a schedule with a little more spine.

3) Teddy Bridgewater started the season as a favorite to win this year's Heisman, and his stats have held up remarkably. 2213 yards through the air and 20 TD's through 7 games will never eliminate you from a Heisman race, but when a quarterback candidate has a soft schedule, he absolutely has to run the table to lead the pack. It is unfair to pin last weeks 38-35 loss against UCF on Bridgewater, but that's just how it goes. The tough luck candidate this year, but you sympathize less when you hear that, of every opponent he has played so far, only Rutgers has received a vote in an AP poll this year. 2, in fact.

4) We of course can't forget about last year's winner. No amount of off field shenanigans will permanently taint what Johnny Manziel has going on down in College Station, and despite two losses now (2 losses, by the way, in which he scored a combined 83 points against SEC defenses) Manziel has to be in the race.  Impressively, his "Heisman moment" probably came in a loss to Alabam
a (which may well have been the game of the year). He threw for 5 TD's, and had one 30 yard scramble in which he escaped the clutches of several large, scary Alabama defensive linemen and ended up throwing for the 1st down. If you haven't seen this play yet, do.

5) AJ McCarron: Well here we get to the "if he goes down, he starts tanking, and he gets injured, this guy's a frontrunner" part of the list. AJ has been a great quarterback this season, especially against big bad SEC defenses, but Manziel has been better, and the other two fellas at the top of the list have completely outplayed him. We probably go with the game winning drive against the Aggies for the "Heisman moment" here, and it was impressive. If there was an award for most NFL-ready quarterback (some call it the first overall pick) it may go to McCarron. His sparkling resumé will probably include 3 national championships after this year, but with under 1600 yards so far, only 14 TD's, and no dual threat capability (which the Heisman voters love, for good reason) he seems like a long shot right now.

There you have my top 5, and thanks for reading!

2013 Heisman Prediction: Tajh Boyd

     Last night, football regained control of our TV screens for the first time since Alabama whooped Notre Dame in the National Title game. Saturday's biggest game of course featured two teams with very different football backgrounds; 5th ranked Georgia of the SEC and 8th ranked Clemson of the ACC. The game featured two high flying offenses, but in the end, Clemson's quarterback Tajh Boyd was able to overpower Georgia's defense, as Clemson upset the Bulldogs 38-35. Tajh Boyd is familiar with the spotlight, as he led his offense past LSU in last year's Chick-Fil-a Bowl. Boyd is extremely talented, with a strong, accurate arm, and the ability to make big plays with his feet. For this reason, we believe Tajh Boyd will take home the Heisman Trophy in 2013.

     Four minutes into the third quarter in last night's game against Georgia, Tajh Boyd faked the handoff to running back Roderick McDowell, hesitated, and then unleashed a 31-yard pass to wide receiver Zac Brooks. Brooks was draped by a Georgia defender, yet Boyd was able to place the ball where only his receiver could catch it. Once the ball landed in Brooks' hands, he was immediately tackled by the opposing cornerback in the end zone for the touchdown, which gave Clemson a 28-21 lead. This touchdown pass was just one of three for Tajh Boyd in last night's game, with an additional two touchdowns on the ground. His performance against Georgia perfectly reflects the skill-set in which Boyd possesses. Yes, Boyd is capable of running the ball, but unlike quarterbacks such as Marcus Mariota and Braxton Miller, Boyd is a pass-first type of quarterback. The accuracy on the deep throws is extremely inconsistent, but last night's game, especially Boyd's touchdown pass to Zac Brooks, is a posotive sign that Boyd has improved on the deep throws.

     In 2012, Tajh Boyd led his team to an 11-2 record, where both losses came against Top 25 teams (Florida State, South Carolina). By year's end, Boyd passed for 3,896 yards, 36 touchdowns, and just 13 interceptions. His passer rating of 165.6 ranked fourth in the nation last year behind pocket passers AJ McCarron, Aaron Murray, and David Fales. Unlike the three I just listed, Tajh Boyd is more than capable of running the ball, especially in the red zone. Boyd's 10 rushing touchdowns last season ranked 11th in the nation among quarterbacks, while he also ran for 514 yards on the ground. Clemson finished second in the ACC Atlantic, and faced off against LSU in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. After beating LSU on a last second field goal, Tajh Boyd was named MVP, passing for 346 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

     Clemson's offense lost wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins who left for the draft, but Boyd still has one of the best wide receivers in the nation, Sammy Watkins. Watkins is a deep threat with extraordinary speed, and this duo is more than likely to succeed if both players are able to stay on the field. Clemson's schedule in 2013 features games against division rival Florida State, as well as SEC powerhouse South Carolina in the last game of the season. Tajh Boyd and the Clemson Tigers are off to a great start, and Clemson playing for the National Title no longer seems so far fetched with Boyd leading the way. If Boyd is able to lead Clemson to one of the major BCS Bowls, we see Tajh Boyd being named the winner of the Heisman Trophy in 2013.