Pre-season Heisman Watch List

With the AP top 25 just released, it appears that season is open on every possible college football analysis. With that in mind, I am inclined to present my Heisman watch list for the 2014 college football season. There are no real surprises on this list, but keep in mind that for two years running, the Heisman winner has been a freshman, so I give somewhere around a 60-40 chance that I have here given the winner.

Marcus Mariota: QB, Oregon
Mariota was the Heisman frontrunner for most of 2013 before fading down the stretch, suggesting he definitely has the potential to win the award. The athletic junior passed for over 3,600 yards last year and threw 31 touchdowns. Although he has to work on his consistency as a passer (3 games last season completing under 50% of his passes), he makes up for it with almost one rushing touchdown per game. The high powered spread offense around Mariota is of course enormously talented, and tailored almost perfectly to his skill set. Mariota will post Heisman numbers this season, but his campaign will hinge, as per usual, on big wins and big moments. He probably won't be able to win the Heisman if he loses a game, except a BCS playoff game.

Jameis Winston: QB, Florida State

"We strong:" They certainly are this year 

I don't think he'll repeat, but he'll come close. People tend now to forget just how exciting Winston was for all of last season, from the first game. With over 4,000 passing yards in a season and a national championship, he's definitely not the Messiah, but he can play football really well. He set freshman season records for the NCAA in passing yards and touchdowns (with 40, also an ACC single season record.) Winston will have great stats on a great team, behind what is probably the best offensive line in the country. In short, I don't have him first on this list simply because it would be a statistical anomaly.


Bryce Petty: QB, Baylor
Last year's first time starter dropped a casual 4,200 passing yards with 4 interceptions. Not a typo there. At the helm of a shiny and outrageous Baylor offense, which averaged 52.4 points per game, he went to a BCS bowl game and suffered a disappointing loss. Unfortunately, Petty's competition probably won't prove stiff enough to merit a Heisman award, but at one point his stats may speak simply for themselves. In a new stadium, with an upcoming team, Petty is definitely a player to watch this year.

TJ Yeldon: RB, Alabama
Yeldon isn't found close to this high on most lists, but most arguments against him hinge around one point: He has many talented backs behind him, and if his fumbling issues rear their ugly head early in the season, he may not get enough carries to fuel a Heisman campaign. This isn't really a legitimate argument, as that can be said about many players, regardless of depth chart. I hereby concede that yes, if Yeldon fumbles the ball a lot, he won't win a Heisman. That isn't rocket science, nor is it exclusive to the running back from Alabama. He is also vying for a national championship, which means a lot when considering this award. Ultimately, he will prove to be an offensive focal point for possibly the best team in the country, which screams Heisman candidate.

Count on seeing a lot of that this year. 

Brett Hundley: QB, UCLA
He moves, he passed for over 3,000 yards, he leads his team well, (a team which may be contending for the first time ever) and he isn't yet a finished product. He also has the strength of schedule to present the potential Heisman moment, notably against Oregon in week seven. All this means I'd be foolish not to put him on my list. While the hype was a little overdone last year, it wasn't that far off the mark. Definitely a player you'll hear a lot about this season, and in a great conference he should have his share of the limelight.

Dashing, there's no other word for it. 

My dark horse candidate has to be Maty Mauk, Missouri's quarterback for the second half of last season. Missouri was predicted to finish last in the SEC east at the beginning of last season, and instead behind Mauk they maintained a top 10 national ranking for several weeks, eventually reaching #5, and played in the SEC championship game after an 11-1 regular season. There they lost 59-42, but posting 42 points against Auburn's defense is a win when we're talking about Heisman potential. Although he isn't a topic of hot discussion, keep an eye on Mauk this season, as he finished up last season with an impressive win over Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.

Notable omissions:
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
"He's athletic, and they lost Aaron Murray so he'll get tons of carries." Both of these are true, but this is a distinctly lame argument. He was also injured last year, which allows people to point to his decent numbers and say they suggest greatness. He'll play well, but he won't win, or stay in the conversation late.
Braxton Miller: QB, Ohio State
Again, injuries shouldn't insert players into this conversation. He hurt his knee and as a result missed 3 games, but 2,094 passing yards, even over that a shorter interval, does not suggest a Heisman winner. Of course he runs well, and plays for a good team, but the prediction I have seen of 2,500 passing yards, 1,000 rushing yards and 40 combined TD's lies entirely outside the realm of likelihood, in my opinion. However that would probably win the Heisman this year.
Mike Davis: RB, South Carolina
Another great player who won't win a Heisman. Steve Spurrier will rely on him heavily this season, but he's coming off an injury last year, and didn't post spectacular numbers. He's definitely explosive, but we have to be wary of pointing to on field flashiness as a predictor of a Heisman award. He needs great numbers, and probably won't get them. I will say that of these three, I can most easily see Davis staying in the conversation late.

Heisman Watch (Week 10)

A shallow foray into the plethora of college football coverage out there (googling "Heisman watch") quickly reveals the flavor of our Heisman week after last Saturday, a day where the top 5 or so prospects shined, some on bigger stages than others. AJ McCarron is finally making some noise, proving my point that for a quarterback candidate (so, any candidate) team success is almost as important as the numbers. There's a new guy who's cracked my list here, hello Bryce Petty, and though he has yet to prove himself in a big game he'll shortly be getting the call, which should be fun to watch. Without further ado…

1) Marcus Mariota had an off week, I'll be the first to admit. I had him pegged for 400 yards through the air against the Bruins last Saturday, but he fell back to earth with a mediocre 21-28 for 230 yards passing yards, with 1 TD and nothing really going on the ground. That being said, you don't lose Heisman races with average performances, and we can look at what Mariota didn't do: He didn't turn the ball over in a big game, and he didn't lose. In fact, he won big, a 42-14 stomping over the much lauded Bruin defense. Without a bad performance, I can't bring myself to drop the Hawaiian from my one spot, keeping my eye on his so far video-game like numbers. Numbers like 2281 yards through the air, 20 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions through 8 games. Oregon remains unbeaten, and two studly running backs (DeAnthony Thomas and Byron Marshall, who combined for five TD's last week) will keep the pressure off Mariota, allowing him to go deep for big plays and run the ball a fair amount (we know Heisman voters love their dual threat QB's) As long as Oregon is winning big, (and they don't look like they're planning on stopping)  Mariota will reign supreme. Back to my theory that a winning team will keep it's quarterback in the Heisman picture, even after an off day.

2) Jameis Winston had a 35 point first quarter against the Wolfpack. Now had NCST looked like anything but a half decent middle school flag football team out there, Winston would be getting more praise and we would be hearing more about his deserving the #1 ranking. However the Wolfpack could have run their cheerleaders out there to show some proper tackling technique, and so this week, tough luck Jameis, but you stay in the two hole. Winston gets the opportunity this week in a huge game against #7 Miami (almost everyone else will be at home, watching during a bye week, including Mariota) so check next week to see if these two have traded places. Winston has already stepped up big against Clemson, but this game is, if possible, as important. An in state traditional rival, a top 10 team, a big conference matchup… Keep in mind as well that almost every other team in the top 10 has a bye week, and so all eyes on famous Jameis this Saturday. He could very well have his (second) Heisman moment.

3) AJ McCarron: I am not a huge fan of McCarron, but at this point you have to hand it to the guy. He's the leader of what is really looking like an unstoppable team. Alabama will play in the national championship this year, and chances are McCarron will win his third national title. No wonder his girlfriend's… well… 3 national titles! Just the sound of that makes you imagine sports center exploding. Here come the dynasty montages, here comes the historical perspective, here come the interviews, and more interviews, and more montages, the "Best Ever?" tab on the left hand side of the screen...but I digress. McCarron has looked like an NFL quarterback this year, simply put, against for the most part very impressive SEC defenses. With a great receiving core at his disposal (see an earlier article) and every quarterback's best friend in TJ Yeldon (money sign double throat slash), McCarron has clawed himself into this race. He's still about 400 passing yards short of making my top spot, but as the big no doubter wins pile up, we have to ask "how much longer can he not be in the conversation?"

4) Johnny Manziel had some choice words last Saturday on the Jumbotron down in College Station this week, (really? Tiger Woods? Did anyone else find that kind of strange?) but Heisman voters will grudgingly give him this: the kid can play. No matter what he does off the field, short of second degree murder, he will remain on the field, and when he's on the field there's a sense that anything can happen. This is why he's so much fun to watch. He dazzled again against Vanderbilt this week, a nice 53 spot which featured 4 touchdowns.  However with 2 losses, (in which he scored a combined 83 points against Alabama and Auburn defenses) his team has dragged him almost out of the race. Some people still love the kid for number one, but for me you need to be leading your team to undefeated greatness. Many would disagree with that standard, but when there are Marcus Mariota's and Jameis Winston's out there, I know who goes in my top spots.

5) Bryce Petty: Here's an easy way to drag yourself into the national conversation: Score an average 63.7 points a game. The junior quarterback down in Baylor has long had reason to quietly raise his hand and ask why he isn't being talked about, but apparently one Heisman quarterback from Baylor is enough for the next several years. Petty had big shoes (or big socks) to fill after RGIII's Heisman career at Baylor, but he has proved he's more than up to the task. For now, this guy still isn't in the elite category simply because his schedule has been softer than mashed potatoes, but he must be licking his chops: The next 3 weeks (after a bye this time around) bring Baylor some real football teams, in #13 Oklahoma, #15 Texas Tech, and #18 Oklahoma State. The entire Bears team has been waiting for these three games, to put on an offensive show like they are capable of, but in particular this is Petty's time to step up. If he does, I don't know what will do in the BCS or the Heisman conversation.

Heisman Watch (Week 9)

Well, it's that time of the year again. When Mark May and Lou Holtz finally stop pretending to like each other and we see all out warfare on our TV screens, when the air gets cold and 2nd string quarterbacks get colder, when, finally, teams with one loss are allowed to be in the top 5. In short, college football is past the halfway mark, and we're closing in on the game we've all been waiting for, but more on that later. After a week 8 which saw 5 top 10 teams fall, the crowd is thin at the top, and the Heisman race is thinner. However, although it may seem like a 2, maybe a 3 pony race for now, one mediocre performance can see the latest flavor of the week tumble. In short, the fact that this is pretty boring right now does not mean that it will finish that way. Keep that in mind as you read these rankings.

1) Marcus Mariota: A couple of fun facts about the young lad who hails from Honolulu. Well, there's one already. He can only hope his Heisman candidacy (and his draft stock) will fare better than that of another famous Hawaiian born college football player. Anyways, Mariota was offered 2 scholarships coming out of high school (a team on which he did not start as QB until his senior year). He wisely chose Oregon over the University of Memphis, and at Oregon he became the first freshman to start the season opener for the Ducks in 22 years. To cut a long story short, as an athletic 18 year old (what have I done with my life?) he led the Ducks to a 11-1 season and a #2 final season ranking in the AP poll. But the Heisman is, of course, about production during this season. Mariota has improved by leaps and bounds this season. He has scored 403 points in 7 games this season, a tidy 57.6 for those of you keeping score at home. He has thrown for 2051 yards, 19 TD's, and no picks, though he has fumbled the ball twice. He has rushed for 493 yards and 9 TD's, averaging 10.1 yards a carry. These are not stats from a video game, or from the end of the season. He has accounted for 4 TD's a game. Admittedly, he has done this against for the most part cupcake opposition, but 2 big games against #12 UCLA and #6 Stanford should give the guy a chance to prove his mettle on the big stage. I have no doubt that he will, and thus, I proclaim this still his race to lose.

2) I know, bold words, especially after Jameis Winston's 51 points against Clemson, the most ever dropped on the Tigers in Death Valley. If you watch any respectable amount of ESPN, you know this about their college football coverage: Boy, do they love them a "Heisman moment." In fact, it seems at times that all they care about is getting a good "Heisman moment." Well Jimmy boy undoubtedly had his last week; In a top 5 matchup within his conference, as a freshman, he embarrassed a very good football team. But a closer look at the numbers reveals a case for the Heisman way beyond one game. He has a 71.3% completion rate, 1885 yards through the air, and 20 TD's. Notice, as impressive as these statistics are, they fall short of Mariota's, against a schedule with a little more spine.

3) Teddy Bridgewater started the season as a favorite to win this year's Heisman, and his stats have held up remarkably. 2213 yards through the air and 20 TD's through 7 games will never eliminate you from a Heisman race, but when a quarterback candidate has a soft schedule, he absolutely has to run the table to lead the pack. It is unfair to pin last weeks 38-35 loss against UCF on Bridgewater, but that's just how it goes. The tough luck candidate this year, but you sympathize less when you hear that, of every opponent he has played so far, only Rutgers has received a vote in an AP poll this year. 2, in fact.

4) We of course can't forget about last year's winner. No amount of off field shenanigans will permanently taint what Johnny Manziel has going on down in College Station, and despite two losses now (2 losses, by the way, in which he scored a combined 83 points against SEC defenses) Manziel has to be in the race.  Impressively, his "Heisman moment" probably came in a loss to Alabam
a (which may well have been the game of the year). He threw for 5 TD's, and had one 30 yard scramble in which he escaped the clutches of several large, scary Alabama defensive linemen and ended up throwing for the 1st down. If you haven't seen this play yet, do.

5) AJ McCarron: Well here we get to the "if he goes down, he starts tanking, and he gets injured, this guy's a frontrunner" part of the list. AJ has been a great quarterback this season, especially against big bad SEC defenses, but Manziel has been better, and the other two fellas at the top of the list have completely outplayed him. We probably go with the game winning drive against the Aggies for the "Heisman moment" here, and it was impressive. If there was an award for most NFL-ready quarterback (some call it the first overall pick) it may go to McCarron. His sparkling resumé will probably include 3 national championships after this year, but with under 1600 yards so far, only 14 TD's, and no dual threat capability (which the Heisman voters love, for good reason) he seems like a long shot right now.

There you have my top 5, and thanks for reading!