Pre-season Heisman Watch List

With the AP top 25 just released, it appears that season is open on every possible college football analysis. With that in mind, I am inclined to present my Heisman watch list for the 2014 college football season. There are no real surprises on this list, but keep in mind that for two years running, the Heisman winner has been a freshman, so I give somewhere around a 60-40 chance that I have here given the winner.

Marcus Mariota: QB, Oregon
Mariota was the Heisman frontrunner for most of 2013 before fading down the stretch, suggesting he definitely has the potential to win the award. The athletic junior passed for over 3,600 yards last year and threw 31 touchdowns. Although he has to work on his consistency as a passer (3 games last season completing under 50% of his passes), he makes up for it with almost one rushing touchdown per game. The high powered spread offense around Mariota is of course enormously talented, and tailored almost perfectly to his skill set. Mariota will post Heisman numbers this season, but his campaign will hinge, as per usual, on big wins and big moments. He probably won't be able to win the Heisman if he loses a game, except a BCS playoff game.

Jameis Winston: QB, Florida State

"We strong:" They certainly are this year 

I don't think he'll repeat, but he'll come close. People tend now to forget just how exciting Winston was for all of last season, from the first game. With over 4,000 passing yards in a season and a national championship, he's definitely not the Messiah, but he can play football really well. He set freshman season records for the NCAA in passing yards and touchdowns (with 40, also an ACC single season record.) Winston will have great stats on a great team, behind what is probably the best offensive line in the country. In short, I don't have him first on this list simply because it would be a statistical anomaly.


Bryce Petty: QB, Baylor
Last year's first time starter dropped a casual 4,200 passing yards with 4 interceptions. Not a typo there. At the helm of a shiny and outrageous Baylor offense, which averaged 52.4 points per game, he went to a BCS bowl game and suffered a disappointing loss. Unfortunately, Petty's competition probably won't prove stiff enough to merit a Heisman award, but at one point his stats may speak simply for themselves. In a new stadium, with an upcoming team, Petty is definitely a player to watch this year.

TJ Yeldon: RB, Alabama
Yeldon isn't found close to this high on most lists, but most arguments against him hinge around one point: He has many talented backs behind him, and if his fumbling issues rear their ugly head early in the season, he may not get enough carries to fuel a Heisman campaign. This isn't really a legitimate argument, as that can be said about many players, regardless of depth chart. I hereby concede that yes, if Yeldon fumbles the ball a lot, he won't win a Heisman. That isn't rocket science, nor is it exclusive to the running back from Alabama. He is also vying for a national championship, which means a lot when considering this award. Ultimately, he will prove to be an offensive focal point for possibly the best team in the country, which screams Heisman candidate.

Count on seeing a lot of that this year. 

Brett Hundley: QB, UCLA
He moves, he passed for over 3,000 yards, he leads his team well, (a team which may be contending for the first time ever) and he isn't yet a finished product. He also has the strength of schedule to present the potential Heisman moment, notably against Oregon in week seven. All this means I'd be foolish not to put him on my list. While the hype was a little overdone last year, it wasn't that far off the mark. Definitely a player you'll hear a lot about this season, and in a great conference he should have his share of the limelight.

Dashing, there's no other word for it. 

My dark horse candidate has to be Maty Mauk, Missouri's quarterback for the second half of last season. Missouri was predicted to finish last in the SEC east at the beginning of last season, and instead behind Mauk they maintained a top 10 national ranking for several weeks, eventually reaching #5, and played in the SEC championship game after an 11-1 regular season. There they lost 59-42, but posting 42 points against Auburn's defense is a win when we're talking about Heisman potential. Although he isn't a topic of hot discussion, keep an eye on Mauk this season, as he finished up last season with an impressive win over Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.

Notable omissions:
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
"He's athletic, and they lost Aaron Murray so he'll get tons of carries." Both of these are true, but this is a distinctly lame argument. He was also injured last year, which allows people to point to his decent numbers and say they suggest greatness. He'll play well, but he won't win, or stay in the conversation late.
Braxton Miller: QB, Ohio State
Again, injuries shouldn't insert players into this conversation. He hurt his knee and as a result missed 3 games, but 2,094 passing yards, even over that a shorter interval, does not suggest a Heisman winner. Of course he runs well, and plays for a good team, but the prediction I have seen of 2,500 passing yards, 1,000 rushing yards and 40 combined TD's lies entirely outside the realm of likelihood, in my opinion. However that would probably win the Heisman this year.
Mike Davis: RB, South Carolina
Another great player who won't win a Heisman. Steve Spurrier will rely on him heavily this season, but he's coming off an injury last year, and didn't post spectacular numbers. He's definitely explosive, but we have to be wary of pointing to on field flashiness as a predictor of a Heisman award. He needs great numbers, and probably won't get them. I will say that of these three, I can most easily see Davis staying in the conversation late.

College Football Storylines: The SEC

If the Pac 12 isn't the best conference in the country, the SEC is without a doubt. Certainly in the last ten years there can be no debate as to the dominance of these schools, with a run of seven straight national championships. This year, I rank the SEC just below the PAC 12, owing to their loss of virtually every talented quarterback in the conference last year. That and a disappointing bowl showing, from the national championship loss to Alabama's (of all teams!) loss to Oklahoma. But of course there will still be anywhere from 2-5 teams from the SEC in the AP top 10 poll this season, and coming off a well publicized SEC media day (or week) the timing is perfect to look at some issues of note from the conference this season. Mind you, if you missed the coverage you didn't miss much (at one point, the merits of different tie knots were discussed-let's call it an off year.) But regardless, these are just several things to watch for this year coming out of the conference.

That didn't take long

Auburn's quarterback play: Nick Marshall's name was mentioned a lot during ESPN's coverage of the SEC media day, which is interesting because he did not speak. After an incident involving marijuana possession, Marshall was not allowed to appear before the press by Tiger coach Gus Malzahn. Apparently, Marshall will face "consequences" following last week's pot citation. Malzahn declined to specify whether a first game suspension would be in the works, which incidentally is a good matchup
against Arkansas. The trendy option of late has been the half game suspension, and realistically that will be the end result. However, we have to remember we are talking about the starting quarterback of the supposedly second best team in the country last year, so by virtue of that fact alone this is something to note. Moreover, Marshall may well be the best quarterback in his conference this year, and is arguably the conference's most prominent player. It remains to be seen if he'll meet expectations.


TJ Yeldon's Heisman bid: This could well be the last season we enjoy the money sign double throat slash, but the good news is we'll be seeing it a lot. Yeldon's numbers last year: 1,235 yards rushing in over 200 attempts, with an average yards per carry of 6.0 and 14 touchdowns. He will flirt with the Heisman from the beginning this year, and expect at least one Tre Mason like game from him (the Auburn running back who had a 300 yard 4 touchdown game in the SEC championship.) Yeldon will be fun to watch this year, as a horse for yet another Alabama team with national title aspirations. Also keep an eye on Amari Cooper.

Dashing

Maty Mauk and Missouri's follow up: A conference that really lacks star power this year might find it in this bow tie sporting 195 lb sophomore, who stepped up brilliantly for Missouri after their starter James
Franklin went down halfway through the season. Mauk helped the Tigers to a spectacular 12-2 campaign, finishing the season ranked fifth in the country. Not many predicted this, but this year the Tigers will get a little more respect as they look to continue trending upwards. Look for Mauk to surprise plenty of defenses with his mobility, and without a really great quarterback in the conference he could perhaps lead Missouri to a conference championship. He caught everyone's attention with some self made comparisons to Johnny Manziel, so it'll be interesting to see if he can back it up.

LSU's offense will take a big step back this season. Led by Cam Cameron, they bid goodbye to Zach Mettenberger but can perhaps say hello to the run first offense so typical of an LSU team. Their star quarterback is not the only loss, as besides the 3,000 yard passer they lost 1,000 yards rushing in RB Jeremy Hill and 1,000 yards receiving each from Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. Their best returning receiver caught a grand total of seven passes last year. Say what you will about a strong freshman class, (highly praised Leonard Fournette was the best recruit at running back in the nation) they will score fewer points than last year's 35.8 per game, by a good margin.

The Iron Bowl will be a little less tame than usual, after last years astonishing Auburn victory-if you watch one college football game this year, make it this one, on November 29th in Tuscaloosa. Other games of note, in no particular order:
November 8th, Alabama at LSU (This game always seems to mean a lot, and look for LSU to improve upon last year's 38-17 defeat.)
September 13th, Georgia at South Carolina (Steve Spurrier's pre-season noise has been spot on)
November 29th, South Carolina at Clemson (The gamecocks have won five in a row in this one)
November 15th, Missouri at Texas A&M (I pick the Tigers, by a wide margin)

Heisman watch list: Maty Mauk, QB from Missouri, Alex Collins, RB from Arkansas, Mike Davis, RB from South Carolina, TJ Yeldon, RB from Alabama
Sleeper pick: Ole Miss Rebels
Conference champion: Alabama

In case you forgot..

My favorite part would be at the beginning, where he goes "And I guess if he misses it, Chris Davis can try to run it back…" Why yes, yes he can.

College Football Conference Power Rankings

It may seem out of place to start talking about college football in early July, I'll grant. But with the NBA and NHL playoffs in the books and what looks to be a profoundly depressing second half for the Red Sox, I find myself inexplicably drawn to that tab at the top of the ESPN home page. Yes, NCAAF is less than two months away! I'll be posting with more regularity as thing heat up, about specific teams and specific story lines, but for starters it seems fitting to give an overview of the conferences this year. I've ranked them below.

The PAC 12: Call me a homer, but I have gone and unseated the SEC as my top conference. This is probably because defense is harder to measure, and the SEC is a defensive conference, so at a cursory glance (mine) the PAC 12 just looks way sexier. Seriously though, the offensive hijinks coming to us from the west coast this year should be nothing short of spectacular, as we have come to expect. Marcus Mariota (I know!) is coming off a remarkable run at a Heisman for a freshman, and the Ducks offense looks to dazzle. They are also looking to unseat a Stanford team that has now repeated as PAC 12 champs. Oregon playing Stanford at home on November 1 is already a game to keep in mind. Other fascinating material from this conference to keep an eye on is a finally legit Oregon State team, a Lane Kiffin-less USC, and Washington and UCLA (with Brett Hundley returning), both teams that are finally coming into their own. Don't forget about Arizona State either. There's simply a lot of great football to be played here, after a conference record 9 teams qualified for bowls. That's a great conference, from top to bottom.

Marcus Mariota didn't go anywhere

The SEC: I'm a little turned off on the SEC this year. I can name five great quarterbacks who graduated last year. AJ McCarron from Alabama, Aaron Murray from Georgia, Zach Mettenberger from LSU, Conner Shaw from South Carolina, and of course Johnny Manziel from Texas A&M. An SEC without quarterbacks (Nick Marshall will probably be the best quarterback in the conference next year, which is frankly kinda lame) is like ordering Moose Tracks ice cream and finding out there's no reese's cups in there. (This actually happened to me once- no further comment) It can still be enjoyable of course, but there's something missing, and that something proves to be an essential element. A great athletic quarterback provides the sole source of unpredictability, and frankly makes a game fun to watch. Defense has always ruled in the SEC, but now that will be exaggerated to such an extent that I can already predict a solid 12-3 win for the Crimson Tide over LSU this year. (Just for the record, definitely not a prediction. I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.) So honestly I can't think of a single game that I am already looking forward to. Of course the Iron Bowl will be timeless, Alabama-LSU, but in all honestly none of those excite me like several teams and games in the PAC 12 do. There you have it. A strong conference but not a fun one. Now I know you'll say I'm not ranking "fun to watch," I'm ranking strength of the teams, but I see the PAC 12 as simply better this year. I'm not saying there won't be the usual contingent of scary top ten SEC teams, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if we had a national champion from outside the SEC this year. In fact the opposite is true, (I would be surprised, for those of you following at home) so I do predict now that the coaches' trophy will remain out of the conference.

Nick Marshall may be good, but he shouldn't be the best in your conference. 

The Big 12: Now besides a beautiful victory by the Sooners over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl that rang resoundingly with a certain poetic justice, the Big 12 didn't fare all that well in bowls last season. An ugly loss by what was previously a very exciting Baylor team was disappointing to everyone but Blake Bortles and his girlfriend, as well as losses from Texas and Oklahoma State. But all those teams, as well as a Texas Tech team that was lots of fun last year, are teams to watch this season. This conference might be my favorite in terms of rivalries, (Red River, for starters) but it does lack that elite level team, the Oregon or Alabama, and that is a knock against it for sure. Keep an eye out for Bryce Petty as well, on sports center top 10s and Heisman watch lists. You heard it here first. Ok definitely not first, but he'll flirt with video game numbers this year, like that entire Bear offense always does.

The ACC: First, let me pause. Thank you, Jameis. You might behave questionably off the field. Then again, you might not, which I guess is sort of the point. But you gave us one of the most poignantly simultaneously quotable and not quotable moments in the history of sports. I myself have brought this up on many an occasion, from a pick up soccer game to an argument about the academic standards for collegiate athletes. "And I said, we strong? And he said, we strong if you strong. *pause* We strong."  Even that's iffy, but I am fairly sure we got the point. (The pause there is my favorite part.) Anyways of course the important point is that this conference took the coaches' trophy out of the SEC for the first time in seven years. I don't say this because I hate the SEC, but simply because it is worth noting and testifies to the strength of the conference. Depth is what's missing here, but Duke looked strong (sorry, I had to) out of nowhere, BC gave some teams some good tough games, and of course the perennially relevant Clemson Tigers and Miami are a big plus. Louisville sans Teddy Bridgewater will take a step back, but they are headed in the right direction, as is this entire conference. Also keep in mind that Notre Dame's non football teams have moved into the ACC officially now, and for many (not all) intents and purposes their football team has as well, so that'll be fun.

The Big 10: Here, I am a homer. A huge Notre Dame fan, I relish on some level dumping Michigan last on a list, even though I know it's not just Michigan and I know they're fifth on the list, and many other conferences would be happy to be here. Still. That was fun. I do have some legitimacy here though. The Big 10 had a losing bowl record for the fourth straight season, at 2-5, which is the worst for any automatic BCS qualifying conference by a good margin. This is a conference that is not doing well, and besides a Michigan State upset over Stanford in the Rose bowl, a good ground out 24-20 win what was fun to watch, there weren't many highlights for these guys last year. Ohio State will be a good team of course with Braxton Miller, and I'm not burying the conference as whole, (Michigan Ohio State will always be great, though they won't top last year's obscenities) but the level of play and the caliber of team has declined considerably. Here's hoping they ramp it back up, so that they can be mentioned in the same breath as the PAC 12 and the SEC, just like the good old days.

Sugar Bowl Preview: Alabama (11-1) vs Oklahoma (10-2)

        This should be fun to watch, even if a little lopsided. Alabama is, of course, disgruntled to play in this one, but that doesn't mean they won't put on a show. Remember, they were one made field goal away from playing in (and probably winning) a third national championship. So really we can't expect anything but a thorough whupping from the Tide. Very few folks think otherwise.

Ah for the days of Landry Jones, huh Sooners fans?
As it is, we have no clue who this guy is.

        AJ McCarron almost did it. He almost won 3 national titles, and perhaps even a Heisman. Hopefully, with the help of an upcoming 8 digit NFL contract, a super model girlfriend, and national prominence, he can cope with this crushing despair. We're all pulling for the guy, in these tough times. Anyways, ideally he will end his career leaving no doubt that he is a dominant college football force, thereby allowing the zealous Tide fan base to probably forgive him, despite one of the biggest losses in school history. I'd say if he drops a 40 spot on January 2, they bury the hatchet and call it even. Helping him do that will be an explosive receiving core, led by sophomore Amari Cooper. This group did not graduate a single senior last year, and this game should be the culmination of a season's worth of improvement.

        Youth aside, people are hailing this squad to have "one of the most distinguished senior classes in college football history." Among those playing their final college football games in New Orleans on Thursday are McCarron, C.J. Mosely, wide receivers Kenny Bell and Kevin Norwood, guard Anthony Steen and even punter Cody Mandell. That's a lot of talent, all determined to leave on a good note. Of course, just because T.J. Yeldon isn't in that group doesn't mean he won't feature prominently here. Here's hoping to another money sign double throat slash…

         And the Sooners. I wince, as I write this, but they have scrabbled together their requisite 10 wins this season by rotating 3 starting quarterbacks. 3! In fact, as of this writing (48 hours before game time, about) they have yet to announce their starting quarterback for Thursday. Regardless of whether we see Trevor Knight or Blake Bell however (a duo somewhat optimistically deemed "the two headed monster") I don't see Alabama quaking in their boots. Meanwhile the Sooner defense has yet to really prove themselves against quality opponents. A casual glance at the numbers would suggest a formidable unit, but in two games this season (Baylor and Texas, the two toughest match ups) the Sooner defense have let up over 900 yards. This doesn't bode well.

Hang in there, big guy. Also, you have weird tattoos. 

        Quixotically, some are predicting the best performance we have ever seen from the Sooners, that they might rise to the occasion magnificently, on the coat tails of a bizarre berth-securing win in Bedlam over OSU that included an earthquake. Yet however fated they might think this win is, I can't agree. I have to go Tide, and not in a close one. Alabama 35-Oklahoma 17.

2013 Iron Bowl Preview

        3:30 pm, Eastern standard time, you can bet that the televisions of college football fans across the country will be tuned to one game. #1 Alabama @ #4 Auburn looks to be a decent showing, I think. This year's iron bowl is probably the biggest matchup ever between the two rivals, as in no previous game have both teams been ranked this high at the time they meet.

This year, "The mother of all Iron Bowls" is undoubtedly the best rivalry in the sport. Although the last two iron bowls have seen a total of Alabama 91-14 Auburn, we won't see another blowout this week. Interestingly for a game this huge and historically this crazy, the odds are very lopsided. Vegas sides heavily with the Tide (they opened as 9.5 point favorites, and have climbed high and quickly since then), as do most gurus. The Odds Shark computers see a 44-21 drubbing in store for the Tigers. All this is to be expected, as Alabama has done nothing this season to lose their reputation as the best team in college football, but I believe the game might be closer that that. Auburn has done nothing but trend upwards all season, and although this reasoning isn't popular with the number crunchers, this is always a crazy game. When so many Southerners get so worked up for one sporting event, in one state, to determine the undisputed rulers of said state, crazy stuff should happen. This game is bragging rights to a whole other level. As someone who's never been in Alabama I can't really understand it, but the impression I get is that this will be some sort of glorious, timeless war on a gridiron. Folks write poems, ballads, short plays even about this game, every year. Every player knows that a great performance will permanently cement his name in Alabama state history, not to mention guarantee him a drink in half the bars of the state forever. This game lasts and resonates forever. The winner not only wins for his half of Alabama, but punches their ticket to the national championship as well. We can't forget that, and I promise you these two teams have not. With this much emotion, pressure, and desire in one building at the same time, we really don't know what we'll see.

        But let's not get carried away. A few quick (and obvious) things to watch for…
McCarron needs to step up big if he wants a Heisman trophy in this one. He knows it, we know it, and the Auburn defense (a nasty unit allowing 22 points per game) knows it, for sure. If the Tigers win this one, it will be because of not only a stingy defense but a couple of big plays. I'd say they need to force two turnovers to stay in the game, but the occasional sack is also in order. Look for outside linebacker Dee Ford to have himself a day, as he leads his Tiger team in sacks, tackles for loss, and QB hurries, all  stats which put him close to the top of the SEC individually. The Tigers will only win if we hear his name, and hear it several times.
     
        Alabama has an explosive receiving core, one that can make you regret the blitz in a hurry. Look for sophomore sensation Amari Cooper and senior Kevin Norwood (leading the team with close to 500 receiving yards) to show up. However they have their work cut out for them, against a stingy secondary, led by future NFL stalwart cornerback Chris Davis. We all know TJ Yeldon will feature prominently in any Tide win, but we forget that AJ McCarron has a couple of great targets every play. Finally Auburn RB Tre Mason leads the SEC in rushing. Of course, a quarterback who gives you the ball all the time is nice for a running back's numbers, but regardless he is an impressive kid. That said, I don't see him having a huge day against Alabama's linebackers, including of course C.J. Mosley (just a scary man) and (I had to say his name) Ha-Ha Clinton Dix. These two on the field together go a long way towards stopping any team's offense.
     
        So I don't see the upset. Auburn's freshman quarterback Jeremy Johnson may fold under the pressure completely, but more likely he is simply shut down by a terrifying Alabama pass rush. So he won't have a terrible day at home, but he won't do anything special, and you need to do something really special to beat the Crimson Tide. Alabama's one weakness is an at-times suspect secondary, and they can be exposed when a talented quarterback has explosive outside threats (Johnny Manziel dropped 42 on them, if you recall.) Auburn's lack luster passing game won't do that, and forced to run the ball they will tire and lose it slowly. Crazier things have happened, and especially in this setting, so knowing full well that I may have to eat these words, I unconfidently predict Alabama 28-Auburn 10. 

Heisman Watch Week 12

I was let down this week, when I saw Marcus Mariota lay an egg for three quarters against Stanford. Of course, this makes my job easier as it clears out the top of my list a little, but I'm unwilling to banish the Hawaiian completely from the top 5, something of an overreaction. Anyways, call it unfair, but a loss for a quarterback is like a weight tied to his feet. It would be really tough for Mariota to shake it off and rise back to the top. Does he still have the best stats in college football? By a shade. But he has one important statistic that others may not: a 1 in the loss column. And so, I declare this

1) Jameis Winston's race to lose. He was previously second in my list, but now he has two huge victories this season (then 3 Clemson and then 7 Miami) he can point to, and in both of those games he stepped up big time. He has played his best football against his best opponents this season. That matters a lot in an MVP race, but more importantly his team won big, which is more than Marcus Mariota can say. Famous Jameis is simply looking like the best player in college football. While I could take some heat because everyone is saying this, Winston now controls his own destiny. If he wins out, even only semi-convincingly, he will most certainly find himself in New York, on a stage, stumbling through a speech written by a PR agent for the Seminoles. I tip my hat to the freshman, who is having a run for the ages. Although he is coming off a terrible day against Wake Forest (160 yards passing and a bad interception in a blow out victory) the only thing close to Winston in this race is his shadow, and even that he's beating by several lengths. I mean he is now 1-5 odds to win the race. For those who are confused, or simply less versed in the ways of the track, that means you'll make 1 dollar for every 5 you bet on him to win. In complete layman terms: he's such a lock that they won't give you much of a reward at all for picking him. Those are ridiculous odds. He is opening up a lead that we haven't in a long time for the Heisman: a true no doubter, like the Pats in the playoffs or Koji Uehara in the ninth. Get used to seeing his name up here.

Chances are, that ball's a completion

2) Bryce Petty is second now just because I wanted him to have a big day against a good defense, it looked like he wasn't going to, but then he pulled it out. And by pulling it out, I mean a 41-12 curb-stomping of the Sooners. Oklahoma fields a pretty darn good football team, but Petty left no doubt about the superiority of his squad. He has now passed for close to 2,700 yards in 8 games, and is at the head of a beautiful offense. It is truly a pleasure to watch the Bears march down the field. For over a quarter, they had me scared with their ineffectiveness last Thursday, but when they found their rhythm… oh boy. Petty passed for 3 touchdowns and ran for 2, and he is looking like, dare I say it, a fairly NFL ready quarterback. He just showed up in a major way, and looks to continue the magic against OSU this weekend. His odds went from 28-1 to 8-1, so he remains a long shot. Interestingly, Vegas prefers Johnny Football (at a 3-1 pick). Obviously I disagree.

3) AJ McCarron is a little overrated, to be honest, but that's just making up for 2 years of neglect, so I suppose it's fair. I have to hand it to him, he proved his quality against a good LSU team in a terrific game. If you missed it, it was tied in Tuscaloosa midway through the third when the Tide decided to win the game. They proceeded to score 21 unanswered points en route to a comfortable 38-17 victory. The latest great installment in this rivalry was not only enormously entertaining, but demonstrative of McCarron's (and his team's) ability to take over a game, even against a great opponent. This wasn't a perfect game for 'Bama, but McCarron's 3 touchdown passes proved to be the difference maker and they ended up winning big. LSU looked ready to make a statement against Alabama, but the Tide responded by playing their best half of college football this season, in the words of Nick Saban. McCarron was obviously a major factor in this, and I have to agree. As for LSU, fumbling on your first 2 processions is not how you beat a great team.

4) Johnny Manziel has now passed for 3,313 yards this season. That is flatly ridiculous, and beats other (present and former) frontrunners Mariota and Winston by several hundred yards. How then, is he not at the top of this prestigious list? Two losses (due to a now completely pathetic, floating belly-up defense) in big games this season are keeping Johnny from the trophy. Two losses to Alabama and Auburn in which he scored a combined 83 points, but two losses all the same. That, plus the general sense of somewhat sloppy play at times (11 picks) will keep Johnny Football from repeating the feat this year. To the Dallas columnists crying out that he should be the lock this year, I point out those two facts.

5) Marcus Mariota will not win the Heisman this year. He has yet to throw a pick, (for a nice 22:0 touchdown to interception ratio) a fact I have always found remarkable and repeated often, but all of a sudden he has fumbled the ball 8 times. A couple of those (including one in the red zone) proved ultimately costly against Stanford last week in a 6 point in-conference loss. Ah well, I guess Alabama Oregon wasn't the game we all wanted to see after all. Unfortunately for Mariota, a late loss in a thinning Heisman crowd will lose you the race. Manziel is above him, because his losses occurred earlier in the season. Call it what you like (unfair, perhaps?), that's college football. Oregon's offense lost that sense of otherworldliness this week, that sheen of perfection which seemed to drive them forward no matter what the opponent. They were stopped just enough times against Stanford, simply put. As the offense goes, so go Mariota's Heisman hopes. Still a great football team, still a great player, but only up here because no one else really fills the 5 hole.

And there you have my top 5 for Heisman week 12, although really only the top 1 is relevant.
Just as an interesting side note, this has been bouncing around the college football universe this week.
Player of the week:
UCLA Bruin Myles Jack: six carries for 120 yards and a touchdown, 8 tackles, a tackle for a loss, a fumble recovery and 2 passes broken up.
That's right. He played linebacker and running back last week against Arizona. My initial reaction was very "You've got to be kidding…" But there it is on the stat sheet. Good Lord. This freshman is probably destined for something special. He is won the Pac 12 offensive player of the week award… despite being a linebacker.

College Football Picks (Week 11)

The best Thursday night in the history of college football, without a doubt. I guess the NCAA doesn't like making money, because if they did one of these games would be primetime Friday night, and another couple on Saturday. But I'll be watching anyways, and so should you, because this is the best week in college football this season. Here are the 5 biggest games, and my picks.

(In terms of predictions, I repeat my philosophy that fortune favors the bold. So if you see unorthodoxy here, or strangely specific calls, I don't expect to get them all right, it's just what I see possibly happening. A fair amount of analysis and statistics go into these, but for the most part I can only hope to be close.)

Stanford defense doing what they do best

2 Oregon @ 6 Stanford: This is going to be great Thursday night football, with the Ducks excited to demolish another wanna be PAC 12 champion (ahem, UCLA) and an incredibly tough, physical Stanford front 7 looking to put a certain Heisman frontrunner on his back. These guys are a scary group, but I believe Oregon's offensive line will rise to the occasion. We all remember the Cardinal's 17-14 OT win last year, the only thing keeping Oregon from a national championship. This looks to be another great game, with a more mature Mariota leading the Duck's charge. If Stanford wins this game it will be with huge defensive play, though that goes without saying. You can't beat the Ducks without defense, because they'll drop 28 on you in a half, no sweat. Between Byron Marshall and, of course, DeAnthony Thomas at running back and everyone's favorite Hawaiian at quarterback, I don't see even Stanford stopping this squad from scoring early and often. Stanford has been great against the run all year, and in total they've allowed only 19 points per game, but that won't stop me from betting the farm on the best offense in the country. Especially when headed by Mariota, who is looking for a big Heisman moment after a bye week. You can also count on Oregon's defense (a seriously underrated group) to not miss many tackles and not to blow much coverage. Oregon 31 Stanford 10

12 Oklahoma @ 5 Baylor: I have had Bryce Petty in my Heisman rankings for 3 weeks now, and it's getting kind of boring to see him score 60 points a game against 9 year old girl flag football teams. I am very excited to see if he can do it (and by "it" I mean score at least 35) against a team that can play some serious football, and Oklahoma is fielding just that. After an "out-of-nowhere-but-didn't-we-kinda-expect-that"loss in the crazy Red River rivalry to an unranked Longhorn team, Oklahoma has looked really, really good. I pick the Bears here because I'm Petty's biggest fan, but not by much. They win this one in a squeaker and a shootout. If both teams score their average points, this game will end with almost 100 points on the board. Of course that won't happen, but it'd be nice to see Baylor actually play some defense, and though this will be a high scoring game it will be the Bear's defense who wins it late, in their first big stand of a high scoring game. I'll be watching this during Oregon Stanford commercials, and I expect to see Baylor 42 Oklahoma 38

Jarvis Landry has almost 900 yards this season

10 LSU @ 1 Alabama: Could it be? Could this be the week we see the Tide tumble? No, it won't be. But I think this week many people will learn that this is not a perfect football team, by any stretch of the imagination. People always assume that without question Alabama's defense is flawless, but they have looked bad at times this season. Remember, they let Manziel score 42 against them earlier this season, and their secondary in particular has been at times suspect. This is a match made in heaven, then, because Zach Mettenberger (a good SEC quarterback who is always forgotten, somehow) has two explosive threats on the outside; Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. These two are his top targets, and I see both of them, especially Landry, teaming up with Metts to expose 'Bama's at times unexperienced secondary. Obviously this is a huge rivalry game, and the atmosphere alone should be reason enough to watch. In the end, however, this one will again be about AJ McCarron and his talented receiving core, TJ Yeldon and his money sign double throat slash, and Nick Saban and his creepy ability to outcoach anyone, even Les Miles. Tune in Saturday night to see an incredible football game. Alabama 31 LSU 24

Virginia Tech @ 14 Miami: Now three weeks ago this could easily have been a top 10 matchup, but just because both teams (in particular the Hokies) have gotten spanked recently doesn't mean this one won't be worth watching. I also just like the ACC, and like the idea of their being a relevant conference in college football. Between the 'Noles, Tigers, and 'Canes, even the SEC fans have to admit that some teams here can play. Logan Thomas has looked terrible in two losses to Duke and BC, but here's hoping he steps up against a humbled Miami team. 7 was the highest ranking in a long time for the Hurricanes, but an second half egg laying against FSU (they were down 21-14 after the first half, but ended up losing 41-14) banished them way down the rankings. This will be a better game than people expect, and a quarterback desperate to improve his spiraling draft stock in Logan Thomas will make some big plays, leading the Hokies to a big upset win, their first in 3 weeks. Virginia Tech 23 Miami 17

Nebraska @ Michigan: Two perennial Pac 10 powerhouses go at it Saturday afternoon, but it must be said that I hate to put a game between two unranked teams in my top 5. However these squads started the season ranked 18th and 17th, respectively, which shows the type of talent that will be on display this week. Nebraska is coming off a Hail Mary win against Northwestern, while Michigan looks to beat a conference rival. Both teams are limping into this game, as Nebraska's season was declared a wash after a loss to Minnesota and Michigan has lost twice this season, while barely beating Akron and UConn. Each squad has their fair share of injuries as well. Although things haven't gone as planned this season for either team, both are looking for defining moments here, and for both teams this would be one of the biggest wins of the season. This is a rematch of a great Sugar Bowl from a couple of years back, and this time around I see Devin Gardner coming back after a 7 sack day (not fun) against MSU and having a big game. Both teams are resilient, both will respond, making this fun to watch. Michigan 28 Nebraska 20

College Football Power Rankings (Week 10)

After a week of bizarre upsets (with 5 teams in the top 10 losing) some order was restored last Saturday, as favorites rolled and everyone else sputtered along. A couple of teams unused to top 10 status were knocked back down to their rightful spots (Missouri and Texas Tech) and in all it was a more or less predictable set of games. I suppose game 3 of the fall classic used up all of the ridiculousness in sports allowed for one day… but I digress.
Easily the enjoyable race to watch this year has become the matchup between FSU and Oregon. Both have young QB's dominating the Heisman conversation, and both are desperate for big wins to push them into the 2 slot, battling for the opportunity to pit their considerable talent against that perennial behemoth, the mighty Crimson Tide. The BCS and the AP poll last week were divided, with the computers preferring the Seminoles by a shade. Every week the 2 and 3 rankings seem like a toss-up, but personally I am going with the Ducks in the two hole after a nice, "cute, but we're the big boys of the Pac 12"message sending type of win over the straight-out-of-highschool Bruins.

1. Alabama: People forget what an impressive receiving core AJ McCarron has at his disposal: not a single player graduated at wide receiver last year, and several studs returned from an injury plagued 2012, possibly rendering WR the Tide's deepest position this year. It really seems like they never run out of weapons, from true-sophomore sensation Amari Cooper (5 receptions for 75 yards and a TD) to Kevin Norwood (6 receptions for 112 yards) to DeAndrew White and Kenny Bell, how on earth do you defend a team that can hurt you in so many ways? Tennessee would have liked to have found the answer to that question. Of course I couldn't write about Bama without mentioning TJ Yeldon and his 3 TD's yesterday, the latest in a dynasty of great running backs. To those who toy with the idea of dethroning Alabama from the 1 spot, I say these guys aren't going anywhere, except the national championship in January.

2. Oregon: The Oregon Ducks had me worried, I'll admit, when they went into the half tied at 14. Both of UCLA's touchdowns came off of big defensive plays, however, and it was that half of the Bruin team that kept them in the game. When Brett Hundley's offense couldn't buy a first down in the second half, Oregon ran wild on the Bruins and the game quickly got out of hand, ending 42-14, shockingly close to my prediction of, I believe, 45-10 last week. However, I was way off in one respect: I called Mariota to have a monster game, and he really didn't. It was the return of DeAnthony Thomas, not to mention Byron Marshall's 3 TD's on the ground that proved decisive here. But Mariota's mediocre 230 yard day actually revealed a further strength about this squad. If their remarkable quarterback is having his brand of off day, they will hurt you badly on the ground. They did this against a previously vaunted UCLA run defense. You need a balanced team to win big, and the Ducks proved without a doubt that they have just that.

3. Florida St: I got excited when I tuned to FSU vs. NCST, ready for a big day from my now favorite Heisman candidate. I was keeping tabs on other games, but each time I changed the channel back, I saw the 'Noles put up another TD, until by the end, Winston had 3 TD's and his offense had 35 points. The end of the first quarter, that is. Yes, in 15 minutes, the Seminoles scored 5 times, 2 TD's being beautiful 40 yard passes to the end zone, Winston's big moments. This 49-17 rout of a truly pathetic tackling Wolfpack didn't say much about the Seminoles, except perhaps that they appreciate their former head coach. But with sixth ranked Miami next week, it's good to see they didn't lose sight of the present. That's a great game coming up, by the way, the ACC is back!

4. Ohio St: Ok, pass the humble pie please. I was not a huge fan of the Buckeyes this year, and after two lackluster wins over bad opponents, I picked them to be upset by Penn St. this week, in my one unorthodox call. Plenty of good teams were losing to bad ones, the Nittany Lions were coming off a bye (and before that an emotional 4 OT win over the Wolverines)… all the stars seemed aligned for Urban Meyer's squad to tumble, finally. My hunch proved slightly incorrect. The only thing upset in this game was Penn St. freshman Christian Hackenburg's balance, as he was sacked 4 times in a lopsided 63-14 loss, Penn St.'s worst in over 100 years. OSU proved superiority in every sense, playing a great physical brand of football. 238 lb RB Carlos Hyde moves like he's 30 lbs smaller, and he kept up his impressive streak of games with another 2 TD's. Braxton Miller was phenomenal despite a slight injury scare, running for 2 touchdowns and passing for 3. No big deal, as OSU finally gets the statement win they were looking for.

5. Baylor: Another week, another 60 spot from the boys in green. To be exact, they are averaging 63.9 points a game, led by junior QB Bryce Petty. In less than 3 quarters (saving his arm, perhaps, for a big home game against Oklahoma next week) he threw for 430 yards, 3 touchdowns and ran for another against the Kansas defense, this week's victims to the sports car/tank that is the Baylor offense. They took two series to warm up, but boy, when they get going there is very little that gets in their way. Of course, the cupcake schedule so far for the Bears has set them against everything short of a Pop Warner team, but still, to put up the type of numbers this team puts up every week is shocking. Thankfully, they will face 3 ranked opponents in the next 3 weeks, and if they win those 3 convincingly, I do not know what we'll do at the top of the rankings. The playoff can't come soon enough… but for now, the Bears can worry about #9 Oklahoma, #15 Texas Tech, and #12 Oklahoma St. They are probably relishing the chance to prove themselves against 3 legit squads. Three great games are coming our way from this Baylor team, but that's my next article.

College Football Power Rankings (Week 8)

Another great weekend of college football games has come and gone, which means it's time for some top 10 power rankings. The deck has been reshuffled, as 5 teams in the top 10 lost. This definitely separates the men from the boys, which left us a nice slew of legitimate, elite squads in it for the long haul; the men. But first, the boys; teams that lost in lackluster showing this week, effectively eliminating themselves from both my top 10 and probably the national title conversation.

Clemson: Oh boy. More on this game later, but wow. An egg-laying of this enormity brings me back to Notre Dame in the National Championship against Alabama, a day I usually try to forget as an Irish fan. This was also a huge game, the first ever matchup between these two teams when both were ranked in the top5. Tajh Boyd will probably be a decent NFL quarterback, but for now he should work on those ACC defenses. He struggled with BC earlier this season. Good bid, Clemson, but see ya.

Louisville: Teddy Bridgewater's slim BCS chances ended with an ugly loss to University of Central Florida, though maybe his Heisman credentials didn't. He did nothing to hurt his cause there, not to mention his draft stock, but his 341 passing yards with 2 TDs were not enough. With a commanding 28-7 lead midway through the 3rd quarter, cruising to victory, the previously 2nd best defense in the country decided that the game wasn't interesting enough, and proceeded to give up 3 Td's in the next 4:20. Not how you win a football game, boys.

UCLA: Not a horrible loss by any means, but a wakeup call to a program that is definitely on the rise. Everyone drinking the "Bears for the BCS Championship" kool aid can calm down a little, after a 24-10 loss to the Stanford Cardinals.

LSU: Zach Mettenberger may not shave his legs, but absolutely hobbled Ole Miss team (they were missing 5 defensive starters) taught him a thing or two. He threw 3 picks in the first half, including 2 in the end zone, on the way to a 27-24 defeat to the Rebels. Previously sixth ranked LSU can stop dreaming of the SEC title game, if they were before.

Texas A&M: Despite some tough hits from a surprising Auburn team, Johnny Football still managed to drop a 41 spot, but it wasn't enough for the Aggies to pull out the win, in a 45-41 loss to an Auburn team that looks very good without Gene Chizik.

So there you have the top 10 teams who fell this week. So here is my updated top 10:

1. Alabama: AJ McCarron is averaging 40.7 points a game, while a stingy SEC defense is allowing 9.7, good enough for 1st in college football. They're not stopping anytme soon, as Arkansas knows too well, as they lost 52-0 on Saturday.

2. Oregon: Another obvious pick, after a 62-38 point drubbing of Washington St. It seems like it's normal for Oregon to do this, sometimes I forget how ridiculous scoring 60 points is. It's not normal, I have decided.

3. Florida State: I'll admit, I toyed with the idea of bumping them into #2, after an incredible game against a vaunted Clemson team. I had picked the Tigers, as I'm never one to go with youth in big college football games, but boy was I wrong. Famous Jameis Winston had himself a nice 51 point day and the Seminole defense surprised everyone, limiting Heisman hopeful (no longer) Tajh Boyd to a paltry 14 points. The Seminoles, finally, are for real. I understand why they are now hailing this FSU freshman as the Messiah in the south. He threw for 44 yards, and his 51 points were the most points ever scored against Clemson in Death Valley.

Now here it gets really tough, but when you see some unimpressive teams up here, keep in mind how many good teams lost this past week.

4. Stanford: I know, I know, quite the jump (they have leap-frogged 9 teams in these power rankings) for a one loss team, but they easily handled an impressive UCLA this week, and despite a really ugly loss to Utah last week, they are one of the best teams in college football not named Alabama or Oregon. Stanford's running game and stellar defense showed up to play, as Tyler Gaffney ran for 171 yards and 2 TDs against the Bears. UCLA quarterback Brent Hundley was completely smothered by Stanford's defensive unit.

5. Baylor: My one very unorthodox pick, but a previously 12th ranked Baylor did nothing to hurt their cause. By nothing, I mean a 71-7 steamrolling of Iowa State. Considering the theme of this year has been good team struggling against terrible ones, Baylor is here by virtue of not messing it up. What an offense!

6. Missouri: A good looking win over a pretty tough Florida team (36-17) has the Tigers riding high, at least higher than their Detroit counterpart (sorry, the Red Sox fan in me...). Anyways, they are riding the momentum of 2 impressive wins over ranked opponents, and and are able to move up after so many teams lost this past Saturday. They are now at the top of the SEC East,  over Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia, 3 perennial powerhouses who have struggled so far this year.

7. Ohio State: Now I know some will say it's unfair to drop a team 3 slots, especially after 19 straight victories, but the Buckeye's strength of schedule (or lack there of) has condemned them here. They beat a 4-3 Iowa squad by just 10 points, but boy were thing interesting. Only a stellar 2nd half by studly RB Carlos Hyde (24 rushes for 149 yards and 2 second half touchdowns, including one highlight-of-the-year 19 yard run) could save Urban Meyer's unblemished record. This makes it 2 suspect wins in a row, after a 10 point victory over Northwestern squad that would then lose to Minnesota. For OSU fans, the 4 team playoff can;t get here soon enough, but for me, they can say goodbye to a top 5 spot. For now.

8. Miami: A generous jump (previously ranked 10th)for a team after a 27-23 win over North Carolina, but an upcoming interstate game against Florida State will quickly end Miami's undefeated season. Meanwhile, Miami has all the losers previously mentioned to thank for this ranking. Losers who are, coincidentally, better teams, but have to be dropped from the rankings for at least one week.

9. Texas Tech: Freshman quarterback Davis Webb made school history in his first road start, becoming the first Red Raider quarterback to throw for at least 400 yards in his first two starts. For now, these guys are up here because they are undefeated in the Big 12 and were ranked 16th before Saturday's win. I challenge you to find a better team to fit in here (You won't. I tried).

10. Texas A&M: Ok, I lied. I said they were out of my top 10, but between them and Fresno State, for example, I have to honestly go with the better team. A&M looked like the strongest loser this week, and no one is forgetting the scare they gave Alabama. A&M has 3 really soft opponents ahead, but then will finish the season at LSU, and then at Missouri. Circle those games on the calendar, as great SEC match ups that won't count for anything in the conference; however, the winner of those games will probably end up in a BCS bowl game, so some pretty darn good football will be played.

And there you have it, a week in college football about as crazy as I've seen. As a top 10 list, this feels more like a top 3, followed by everyone else. For the fans who want a wide open race, I'm sorry to say I don't see anything but Alabama-Oregon in the National Championship, but man is that going to be a good one. More on that later. Thanks for reading.

BCS National Championship Preview: Notre Dame vs. Alabama

     On January 7^th, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have the potential to dethrone the Southeastern Conference as the powerhouse of the BCS National Championship. The SEC has won the past six National Championships, two of which were won by Alabama, Notre Dame’s upcoming opponent. The only thing that stands in Notre Dame’s way from yet another national championship is Nick Saban’s sensational defense, similar to the one who took home the title in 2012. The two teams set to play are both steeped in history, but many college football fans are questioning whether or not the Fighting Irish deserve to battle Goliath for a National Championship. History has proven that the underdogs are capable of defeating the favorites, even on the world’s biggest stage (see Boise State, 2007 Fiesta Bowl), which is why the 2013 National Championship is worth watching.

           

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The 2011 season is still fresh in the minds of Notre Dame fans across the nation, where the Fighting Irish finished the year at 8-5, lost to Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl, and showed little promise for the upcoming season in August. After the fourth week of football, however, Notre Dame upset Michigan State on the road, and then trounced 18th ranked Michigan in South Bend. A dominant win over Miami led to the highlight of Notre Dame’s season; an overtime win over rival Stanford, thanks to an unbelievably defiant goal line stand. 8^th ranked Oklahoma could not stop the rolling Irish, who fell, at home, 30-13. After a triple overtime scare against Pitt, and two easy wins back to back, the final game on the schedule was against USC, a struggling team missing their star quarterback, Matt Barkley. Notre Dame kept the perfect season alive, and much of their surprising turnaround can be credited to their senior phenomenon, Mant Te’o. Te’o, the middle linebacker for Notre Dame, is destined to be one of the Heisman finalists in New York. This exceptional defender has proven to be an effective motivator, especially after what he was forced to endure. The death of his grandmother and girlfriend before the season began fueled the fire within him, and his stat line makes an amazing case for the Heisman Trophy over freshman sensation Johnny Manziel. Though Notre Dame’s offense is nothing extraordinary, quarterback Everett Golson is capable of scoring when the game is on the line. The difference maker for Notre Dame will be their sensational defense (ranked first in the nation in terms of points allowed), and whether or not they can shut down Alabama’s respectable offense.

Alabama Crimson Tide: Alabama’s season started off as projected--dominant wins over each and every opponent. An easy win over Michigan in their first game of the season led to a hot streak that carried them through the first nine weeks of football. Mississippi State, ranked 11^th at the time of their meeting, was unsuccessful in jumping out to an early lead, and Alabama went on to win the game with ease. The next game on the schedule was a modern day rivalry between Alabama and fellow SEC powerhouse LSU. Alabama’s 14-3 lead at halftime was not enough to hold off the Tigers of Louisiana, and before long, Alabama found themselves down, desperate to claw their way out. Quarterback AJ McCarron marched Alabama down the field, and eventually connected with running back TJ Yeldon for the game winning score. The following week, Alabama was caught in a similar situation, except this time, a 20 point deficit was too much  to overcome, as Johnny Manziel toppled the number one team, after a Texas A&M interception sealed a victory for Manziel’s squad. Back-to-back shutouts against unranked teams were not enough for Alabama to regain their number one spot in the rankings, at one point held by Kansas State, and then eventually Notre Dame. Finally, in one of the best college football games played in the 2012 season, Alabama beat Georgia for their second consecutive SEC title. In a game that came down to the last second on the clock, Alabama’s rushing attack proved too much for the Georgia defense, and the Crimson Tide held off Georgia for a final tally of 32 points to Georgia’s 28 points. Similar to Notre Dame, Alabama’s defense has proven to be stellar once again, ranking second behind, who else, but the Fighting Irish. The passing game under AJ McCarron has been less than stellar, but Sunday’s SEC showdown proved to football fans that Alabama’s running back tandem is capable of making big plays at the right moment. Both running backs, Eddie Lacy and TJ Yeldon, rushed for at least 150 yards and a score, but don’t expect the same numbers against Notre Dame’s defense.

Bottom Line: Notre Dame has been underestimated throughout the duration of the season, and they finally have the chance to prove themselves when they take on the heavily favored Crimson Tide. In yet another low scoring National Championship, Notre Dame challenges Nick Saban’s defense early on in the game, but the defending champs prove to be too much by the fourth quarter.

Alabama over Notre Dame 16-10