2015-2016 Fantasy Football Love/Hate

I know it's been a while. You may not even remember me anymore. My name is Gabe Schmittlein. I'm back. Matthew Berry just came out with his Fantasy Football Love/Hate article for the upcoming season and I was inspired to give all the dedicated readers of the NFL Report my own view on the landscape of fantasy football. So -- Matthew Berry, my muse -- this one's for you.

Love:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers and Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts --

Rodgers and Luck can be looped in together because they are far-and-away the top two fantasy options at quarterback this year. Brady is suspended/not-suspended/who-the-hell-knows, Peyton Manning's arm strength is right down there with the Mark Sanchez's of the world (that's not good), and Drew Brees has a receiving core made up of guys who are not Jimmy Graham. Mid-level options behind Rodgers and Luck are there, but even guys like Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matthew Stafford represent steep drop-offs in value from Rodgers and Luck and don't represent extraordinarily higher values than their late draft quarterback counterparts like Ryan Tannehill or Sam Bradford. The first few rounds of fantasy football drafts are all about maximizing value in positions where value can be most effectively maximized (if ya see what I mean)... For example, running backs are often drafted so high because there tends to be a sharp drop-off in fantasy quality, while receivers are drafted lower because the difference between the 1st and 20th best receiver is marginal when compared to the difference between the 1st and 20th best running backs. So take Rodgers and Luck. Or Don't. But don't be a sucker and take Peyton Manning in the second round.

Wide Receivers in the Second/Third Round --

Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green. Alshon Jefferey. T.Y. Hilton. With the usual high splurge on running backs, those are all the wide receivers that could be available in rounds two and three. Picking up most of those guys in the second round would represent a good value and getting any of them in the third round would be incredible. Be aware that there is a decently sharp drop-off after these wideouts, so you don't want to be the one guy in your league to go quarterback in the second round (don't. pick. manning.) and have to draft after all of these guys are gone.

Jeremy Maclin --

He's going way way way too low right now. Maclin thrived last season with Mark Sanchez at the helm, and I don't see Alex Smith being a huge downgrade from him. Sure, Chip Kelly's scheme played a part, but Maclin was great under Andy Reid when he was in Philly too. Matthew Berry said that Maclin was going in the eighth round in most ESPN leagues, down with Mike Wallace, Jarvis Landry, and Allen Robinson. Ridiculous is what that is. Hey, if you can get Maclin in the eighth round, that represents awesome value, but I'd even be happy if you took him as early as the fifth or sixth round. Pro-tip - if you're playing with a bunch of guys on auto draft, he'll likely fall right into your hands in the eighth round, so at least there's some good news with him being ranked as low as he is.

Hate

Tight Ends Not Name Gronkowski or Graham --

Ugh. See Rodgers and Luck paragraph above. Or I'll just type it out in a slightly different way down here... Gronkowski and Graham represent a massive value gap between them and the rest of their position, so I'm fine with either of them in the first couple rounds. However, guys like Travis Kelce, Greg Olson, and Julius Thomas that are being drafted around the fifth round don't seem to be providing a maximized value over a tight end that you could be drafting in the tenth round (Zach Ertz is totally gonna get it going this year!!). On the other hand, the difference between a wide receiver/running back in the fifth round and the tenth round is going to be huge.

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions --

The Abdullah hype train has been very real the past couple weeks, but I struggle to see where his value is going to come. He's not going to get many touchdowns, as Joique Bell is one of the more accomplished goal line backs in the league, and he's not going to get as many touches as you'd hope, once again because of the aforementioned Joique Bell. I guess he provides some value as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but it isn't enough to warrant the sixth round (about) draft slot that he's been getting in most leagues. I do like Abdullah in the long term, but it's going to take time for him to win carries away from Bell, who I actually think is being drafted too low right now.

Defenses and Kickers --

Matthew Berry said this in his Love/Hate article, but I believe I said it in my Love/Hate article prior to last season, so if anything he's copying me. Please please please don't draft a defense or a kicker before the last couple rounds. Berry listed a whole catalog of people who he hates more than those who draft defenses and kickers in the first ten rounds, and it was all very cute. I'll say this, though, (and I mean it for real) I hate those sort of people more than I hate cleaning off the inside of peanut butter containers so they can go in the recycling. Sorry to one-up you Berry, but I hope you understand that I don't mean any harm because we're fighting on the same side. The opportunity for maximizing value in positions where value can most effectively be maximized is almost negligible when talking about defenses and kickers. In terms of defenses, it makes much more sense statistically to just pick up a defense that has an easy matchup every week, while for kickers, our ability to predict their year-to-year success is really really poor so you're better off (once again) keeping your eye on the waiver wire.

NFL Week 5 Predictions

Packers over Vikings (Correct): If Teddy Bridgewater had been healthy for this Week 5 matchup, the Thursday night game would have been a lot more interesting. Instead, the Packers offense, particularly Eddie Lacy, dominated the Vikings defense throughout the game, giving Green Bay an easy win at home.

Bears over Panthers: In the past two games for Carolina, the Panthers have been outscored 75-29, a horrible statistic seeing how the defense is supposed to be one of Carolina's strengths. Cam Newton is not playing like his former self since injuring his rib in the offseason, whereas the Bears have defeated both the 49ers and Jets on the road. Chicago looks like the early favorite.

Cowboys over Texans: While the Cowboys certainly receive plenty of criticism from football fans, there is no denying that their 38-17 victory over the New Orleans Saints is impressive. Among running backs with more than 50 attempts, Murray leads the league in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, yards per attempt, yards per game, and 1st downs. Plus, only giving up 17 points to the mighty New Orleans Saints is a sign of improvement on defense. The Texans should not be a problem.

Lions over Bills: The Lions have beaten both the Packers and the Jets within the past two weeks. Even though Calvin Johnson has struggled thus far, Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense have had no problem putting points on the board. The Buffalo Bills pass rush is pretty talented, but not enough to derail the Lions offense.

Colts over Ravens: Quarterback Andrew Luck is certainly deserving of the Most Valuable Player Award as of Week 4, seeing how he leads the league in both passing yards and touchdowns, as well as recording a 3-1 record. The Ravens are coming off of a dominant victory over the Carolina Panthers, where receiver Steve Smith played like his former self in Carolina. This game is sure to be a shoot-out, but the Colts have home-field advantage, thus giving them a slight edge over Baltimore.

Andrew Luck's NFL-high 13 TD passes are most in Super Bowl era by QB age 25 or younger thru 4 games #QuarterbackSCenter
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 1, 2014

Steelers over Jaguars: The Jacksonville Jaguars are undoubtedly the worst team in the NFL, whereas the Pittsburgh Steelers are playing well enough to earn a spot in the playoffs. Antonio Brown is worthy of a position on the All-Pro team through these past 4 games, and even with a loss against Tampa Bay last week, the Steelers are guaranteed to bounce back against Jacksonville.

Saints over Buccaneers: At 1-3, the New Orleans Saints did not start off the 2014 season the way they would have liked, but with a chance to be tied for second in the division, Drew Brees and the Saints look to beat Tampa Bay, a division rival. Tampa Bay beat Pittsburgh thanks to a last minute score, but after that emotional victory, the Bucs are bound to lose at the Superdome.

Rafael Bush RT @iTerrence @Saints who's going to start at the other safely since Byrd is out?
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 3, 2014

Giants over Falcons: The New York Giants are one of the more difficult teams to predict, but based on what we saw last week, it looks like Eli Manning is adjusting well to the West Coast offensive scheme. Atlanta just lost on the road to a rookie quarterback, and their road trip continues into New York. If Manning is able to play well, the Giants will beat the Atlanta Falcons.

Eagles over Rams: The Philadelphia Eagles were undefeated entering San Francisco last week, but in a close game, they were handed their first loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Rams remain winless on the year, and I don't see them earning the win on the road this week.

Browns over Titans: The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 thus far with Brian Hoyer as quarterback, where all three games were decided by three points or less against legitimate playoff contenders. The Titans have home field advantage, but the Browns have more talent on both sides of the ball.

Broncos over Cardinals: Not many people guessed at the start of the year that one of the only remaining undefeated teams by Week 5 would be the Arizona Cardinals; however, that is the case for this season. The Denver Broncos now have the best opportunity to give Arizona the first loss of the season. Even though Arizona's defense has been one of the best in the league within the past two seasons, they will be no match for the best offense in all of football.

Chargers over Jets (OT): This game is a classic example of offense vs. defense, as Philip Rivers and the high-flying San Diego offense takes on the young, talented defensive line of the New York Jets. Sunday's game will be very close, but the deciding factor will be Geno Smith's continuing struggles on offense.

49ers over Chiefs: Last week served as a must-win game for the San Francisco 49ers against the Philadelphia Eagles, and after the Week 4 win, the Niners are just two games out of first place in the division. Kansas City trounced a struggling New England Patriots last week, but if anyone can suppress the now-healthy Jamaal Charles, it would be the 49ers.

Bengals over Patriots: The New England Patriots are coming off one of their worst performances during the Brady-era. While Brady's statistics have dropped, the contributing factor has been a horrible offensive line that is not giving their quarterback enough time in the pocket. The Cincinnati Bengals are an incredible force on the defensive side of the ball, and while the Patriots should have cornerback Brandon Browner return from his suspension, the Bengals look like the all-around better team in this matchup.

Seahawks over Redskins: Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins lost in an embarrassing performance against the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football, and even though the Redskins are at home against Seattle, the superior talent on the Seahawks roster will help give Seattle an easy win.

Marking his cleats. RT @allygirrl221: Emmanuel Acho #51 pic.twitter.com/CuAIAHkH9P
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) October 5, 2014

#Texans won’t have 1st pick Jadeveon Clowney today. Sources tell me his target return date from his torn meniscus is Oct. 20 vs. #Steelers
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 5, 2014

#ThisIsOurHouse #CINvsNE https://t.co/zHFT9l5ygr
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 4, 2014

College Football-NFL Comparisons: Blake Bortles

        Some are saying Bortles will now go second overall, if the Browns trade up for the pick. Houston is another likely suitor, and with all the permutations there are even mock drafts where he goes first overall. This is a quarterback coming off one hell of a season, in which he took a mid major (read: mediocre) program to a BCS bowl game, and there stunned the 5 ranked Bears in the Tostitos Fiesta bowl. A great end to a great career for Bortles, and since then (and really the whole stellar season he had, with well north of 3,500 passing yards) everyone has realized that he may well become pretty important pretty quickly in the NFL. That said, a comparison I recently saw drawn with Andrew Luck is one of the silliest symptoms of draft hype I have seen in recent memory. Blake Bortles does not have the athleticism (a 4.93 40, vs a 4.6 from Luck), passing ability, composure in the pocket, or big game experience of Andrew Luck. That list could easily go on for a paragraph. Of course, Luck sets a shockingly high bar, as he has already proved to be a Pro-Bowl caliber player at his age. Luck played on a vastly superior team outside of Palo Alto and simply had much more to his résumé going into the draft. He may be an all time great; That can't be said at all about Bortles.

        A much more reasonable comparison to make would be with Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. This is generous, certainly, but both players are slow, fairly accurate, and struggle with the long ball. Ryan wins games, and Bortles has proven he can do that, even on a team like UCF. Game management matters, and that I am happy to give to Bortles. Both quarterbacks excel in the quick, short game, and are just athletic enough to occasionally extend plays with their feet, but surprise everyone when they do so. In sum Bortles is a good player, in fact he may have won the best quarterback of the draft status, but most have rightly pointed out that we can by no means call him elite. He will go very high in the draft, and likely have a solid career as a starter in the NFL. Wherever he goes, he will almost definitely be starting as soon as he arrives, so we don't have long to wait to see how a good college season (and player) translates into the NFL.

(His girlfriend, I will give elite status. A ludicrous amount of hits on google.)

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em (Week 13)

Start 'Em:
Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers
After seven straight weeks of ten or more fantasy points, Gore has failed to reach this mark in each of his last two games, registering a mere 79 yards and no touchdowns.  His week 11 output of just four points was understandable as Gore was going up against the tough Saints defense.  However, last week against the woeful redskins, Gore put up just three points.  Hopefully, for fantasy owners, week 12 was an outlier as opposed to the normal.  Gore will have a great opportunity to redeem himself in a matchup against the 31st ranked Rams defense.

Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Floyd has broken out in a huge way over the past two weeks, posting 297 yards and a touchdown. With Carson Palmer's resurgent season, the Cardinals finally have a solid quarterback to throw to their stud wide receivers.  Additionally, Fitzgerald will command a lot of the coverage, allowing Floyd to run one-on-one against the secondary cornerback.  That secondary cornerback will be a member of the feeble Eagle's secondary.  Chances are, the Cardinals will tear up the Eagle's defense, and Floyd will be a big part of that attack.

Josh McCown, QB, Chicago Bears
McCown has performed fantastically in replacing the injured Jay Cutler, and the fun shouldn't stop now with an easy matchup against a Viking's defense, which has allowed more than 12 points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks in every week so far this year.  This may be McCown's last week as a starter, but he will look to go out with a bang.

Sit 'Em
Bobby Rainey, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After his huge week 11 performance, Rainey failed to impress in week 12, only registering 35 yards. The reality is, his performance should be expected to be a middle ground between these two weeks. However with a tough matchup against the Panthers, I don't think that Rainey will put up a significant amount of points.  He is going to get fed the ball a lot, but if he only gets around 2 yards per carry (like last week), your fantasy team could be in trouble.

Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers
Allen is having a breakout season, recording four 100 plus yard games already.  However, his inability to be an effective red zone threat for the Chargers has reduced his fantasy value, and against a tough Cincinnati Bengal's defense, I wouldn't expect this disappointing theme to change.

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Don't get me wrong, Andrew Luck is always a decent fantasy start.  But, this week, if you have a solid backup quarterback (see: Josh McCown) available, it may be worth it to start him over Luck.  He is going up against a Titans defense that has allowed just two passing touchdowns over the last seven weeks.  One of these games included a matchup against Luck, himself, where he didn't manage to register a passing touchdown.  It is always difficult to sit a guy with the credentials that Luck has, but there are simply better options out there this week.

Russell Wilson vs Robert Griffin III vs Andrew Luck

     The 2012 NFL Draft class produced one of the best group of quarterbacks in recent memory, where an astounding five quarterbacks from this particular draft class started on opening day last season. Three quarterbacks in particular were able to find success within their first season: Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, and Andrew Luck. With their second season quickly approaching, we will predict which quarterback will have the best statistical year in 2013.

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, the 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year, was clearly the most dominant rookie of the 2012 draft class. RGIII now holds the record for the highest passer rating of any rookie in NFL history (102.4), as he threw for 3,200 yards and 20 touchdowns. One of RGIII's most dangerous qualities is his ability to run; Griffin ran for 815 yards and 7 touchdowns, but his days of escaping the pocket may soon be over. RGIII underwent surgery on January 9th to repair a torn ACL and LCL, and though he will miss all four preseason games, RGIII will likely return by Week 1. Unfortunately for Griffin, head coach Mike Shanahan will certainly limit his quarterback's rushing attempts. RGIII is rather small considering how frequently he runs the ball, so injury will likely follow RGIII until he transforms into a pocket passer. Robert Griffin III has all the qualities needed to be a successful pocket passer, and with offensive weapons such as Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis, RGIII has the potential to be one of the best passing quarterbacks in the league.
2013 Projection: 3,850 yards, 30 touchdowns, 11 interceptions


Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: Entering the 2012 Draft, Andrew Luck was the clear favorite to be picked first overall by the Indianapolis Colts. With a big arm, the ability to evade tacklers, and leadership qualities, it was no surprise Andrew Luck was considered the number one prospect of the 2012 draft class. Andrew Luck was the opening day starter, and his most important accomplishment was an 11-5 record, earning Indianapolis a Wild Card berth. Andrew Luck broke the record for passing yards by a rookie in a single season after throwing for 4,374 yards. Other parts of his game need drastic improvement if he looks to win a Super Bowl with the Colts. Luck's completion percentage stood at just 54.1%, and his 76.5 passer rating put him behind quarterbacks such as Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder. The Indianapolis Colts rely heavily on their offense, and if Andrew Luck turns the ball over 28 times as he did last season, this offense will not get the chance to succeed.
2013 Projection: 4,350 yards, 29 touchdowns, 16 interceptions


Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: As a rookie, Russell Wilson gradually improved over the course of the season, and by year's end, he challenged RGIII as the league's best offensive rookie. In his final eight regular season games, Wilson passed for 1,652 yards with 16 touchdowns and just two interceptions. By the end of the regular season, Russell Wilson tied Peyton Manning's record for the most passing touchdowns by a rookie (26). Wilson's spectacular play carried over into the playoffs, as he led the Seahawks past Washington in the first round, yet despite passing for 385 yards with two touchdowns in the divisional round, Seattle lost 30-28 to the Atlanta Falcons. Wilson is an intelligent quarterback with great accuracy and impeccable mechanics. Wilson also uses his speed only when necessary, but it would be dangerous for him to consistently run the ball at just 5 feet 11 inches. The Seattle Seahawks traded for wide receiver Percy Harvin in the offseason, but a hip injury will keep Harvin on the sidelines until the playoffs. If Wilson is able to play all 16 games, the Seattle Seahawks will be a serious threat to dethrone San Francisco as the NFC West champion.
2013 Projection: 3,900 yards, 28 touchdowns, 14 interceptions


Bottom Line: Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III will both have great second seasons, with the advantage going to RGIII if he can stay healthy. As for Andrew Luck, we predict Luck will make great strides in his level of improvement, but he still needs more time to mature. 

Madden 25 Cover Vote Round 2 Picks (New School)

(1) Colin Kaepernick over (8) A.J. Green: As a number one seed, Kaepernick will have to watch out for the upset against A.J. Green. The San Francisco quarterback led his team to a Super Bowl, but the road to the cover may be a bit more difficult.

(4) Arian Foster over (5) Julio Jones: Arian Foster's impressive statistics in 2012 were overshadowed by Adrian Peterson and his quest for 2,000 rushing yards. Foster won 88% of the voting in the first round, and though Jones will likely put up a fight, Foster will be one step closer towards the Madden 25 cover.

(3) Russell Wilson over (6) Von Miller: While Von Miller wheezed into the second round, Russell Wilson easily beat Justin Blackmon in the first. Wilson did not win Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2012, but his Seahawks have one of the most reliable fan bases in the league. Wilson is guaranteed to beat Miller.

(2) Andrew Luck over (10) Clay Mathews: Green Bay Packers fans were well represented in the voting when Mathews upset Trent Richardson in the first round. His next opponent, Andrew Luck, revived a struggling Indianapolis franchise last season, and his accomplishments did not go unnoticed. 

(1) Robert Griffin III over (8) Doug Martin: Reining Rookie of the Year Robert Griffin III will face a fellow rookie player in Doug Martin. Doug Martin made a legitimate case for ROTY, but it was RGIII who won the prize in the end. RGIII will end up winning this match up, too.

(5) Ray Rice over (4) Dez Bryant: Flacco was credited with the majority of Baltimore's post season success, but Ray Rice guided this team into the playoffs. His opponent, Dez Bryant, did not become hot until the final few weeks of the regular season. Rice's tremendous performance in the first round of voting will continue into the second.

(3) Rob Gronkowski over (11) Darrelle Revis: Both competitors missed a significant amount of games in 2012 due to injury, but somehow, they find themselves in a second round match up. Gronkowski appears to be a fan favorite, and will likely beat Revis in a lopsided victory.

(2) Adrian Peterson over (10) LeSean McCoy: Out of all the players competing in the 'New School' bracket, reigning MVP Adrian Peterson is the favorite to come out as champion. McCoy's 2012 campaign was not strong enough to dethrone Peterson's monster season.

NFL Award Predictions: Offensive Rookie of the Year

     Last April's draft class proved to have one of the more talented trio of passers in recent memory. Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck all wish to take home Offensive Rookie of the Year on February 2nd, but unfortunately, their can only be one winner.

QB Robert Griffin III: Out of the three quarterbacks competing, RGIII appeared to be the most disciplined, where he showed off his extraordinary accuracy by obtaining a 102.4 quarterback rating. Unlike Andrew Luck, RGIII threw just 5 interceptions in 15 games, as well as rush for over 800 yards with 7 scores. The former Heisman winner resurrected the Redskins franchise, bringing them back into contention before being bumped by Seattle in the Wild Card round. RGIII managed to stay consistent throughout the year, and if not for several injuries, he may have won this award in a landslide. 

QB Andrew Luck: The most impressive of Andrew Luck's statistics might be his ability to succeed even when the odds are against him. Luck was forced to play while a franchise coped with their head coach, Chuck Pagano, battling cancer. Andrew Luck had seven fourth quarter comebacks in 2012, and was also able to break the rookie record for passing yards with 4,374. The only problem with Andrew Luck was the high interception total (18 interceptions compared to 20 touchdowns). A fantastic rookie season will be followed by many more years of success, but it is unlikely Luck will win Rookie of the Year over Wilson and RGIII.

QB Russell Wilson: Unlike RGIII and Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson was the only rookie quarterback to make it into the Divisional Round of this season's playoffs. Wilson likely has the most talented team surrounding him, meaning out of the three quarterbacks, Russell Wilson had to do the least amount of work in order to lead Seattle back into the playoffs. Wilson did manage to tie Peyton Manning's rookie passing touchdown record at 26, and maintained a 100.0 passer rating throughout the season. Wilson is capable of scrambling when needed, similar to RGIII, but his slow start to the year hurts his case for Rookie of the Year.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction: Robert Griffin III