Pre-season Heisman Watch List

With the AP top 25 just released, it appears that season is open on every possible college football analysis. With that in mind, I am inclined to present my Heisman watch list for the 2014 college football season. There are no real surprises on this list, but keep in mind that for two years running, the Heisman winner has been a freshman, so I give somewhere around a 60-40 chance that I have here given the winner.

Marcus Mariota: QB, Oregon
Mariota was the Heisman frontrunner for most of 2013 before fading down the stretch, suggesting he definitely has the potential to win the award. The athletic junior passed for over 3,600 yards last year and threw 31 touchdowns. Although he has to work on his consistency as a passer (3 games last season completing under 50% of his passes), he makes up for it with almost one rushing touchdown per game. The high powered spread offense around Mariota is of course enormously talented, and tailored almost perfectly to his skill set. Mariota will post Heisman numbers this season, but his campaign will hinge, as per usual, on big wins and big moments. He probably won't be able to win the Heisman if he loses a game, except a BCS playoff game.

Jameis Winston: QB, Florida State

"We strong:" They certainly are this year 

I don't think he'll repeat, but he'll come close. People tend now to forget just how exciting Winston was for all of last season, from the first game. With over 4,000 passing yards in a season and a national championship, he's definitely not the Messiah, but he can play football really well. He set freshman season records for the NCAA in passing yards and touchdowns (with 40, also an ACC single season record.) Winston will have great stats on a great team, behind what is probably the best offensive line in the country. In short, I don't have him first on this list simply because it would be a statistical anomaly.


Bryce Petty: QB, Baylor
Last year's first time starter dropped a casual 4,200 passing yards with 4 interceptions. Not a typo there. At the helm of a shiny and outrageous Baylor offense, which averaged 52.4 points per game, he went to a BCS bowl game and suffered a disappointing loss. Unfortunately, Petty's competition probably won't prove stiff enough to merit a Heisman award, but at one point his stats may speak simply for themselves. In a new stadium, with an upcoming team, Petty is definitely a player to watch this year.

TJ Yeldon: RB, Alabama
Yeldon isn't found close to this high on most lists, but most arguments against him hinge around one point: He has many talented backs behind him, and if his fumbling issues rear their ugly head early in the season, he may not get enough carries to fuel a Heisman campaign. This isn't really a legitimate argument, as that can be said about many players, regardless of depth chart. I hereby concede that yes, if Yeldon fumbles the ball a lot, he won't win a Heisman. That isn't rocket science, nor is it exclusive to the running back from Alabama. He is also vying for a national championship, which means a lot when considering this award. Ultimately, he will prove to be an offensive focal point for possibly the best team in the country, which screams Heisman candidate.

Count on seeing a lot of that this year. 

Brett Hundley: QB, UCLA
He moves, he passed for over 3,000 yards, he leads his team well, (a team which may be contending for the first time ever) and he isn't yet a finished product. He also has the strength of schedule to present the potential Heisman moment, notably against Oregon in week seven. All this means I'd be foolish not to put him on my list. While the hype was a little overdone last year, it wasn't that far off the mark. Definitely a player you'll hear a lot about this season, and in a great conference he should have his share of the limelight.

Dashing, there's no other word for it. 

My dark horse candidate has to be Maty Mauk, Missouri's quarterback for the second half of last season. Missouri was predicted to finish last in the SEC east at the beginning of last season, and instead behind Mauk they maintained a top 10 national ranking for several weeks, eventually reaching #5, and played in the SEC championship game after an 11-1 regular season. There they lost 59-42, but posting 42 points against Auburn's defense is a win when we're talking about Heisman potential. Although he isn't a topic of hot discussion, keep an eye on Mauk this season, as he finished up last season with an impressive win over Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.

Notable omissions:
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
"He's athletic, and they lost Aaron Murray so he'll get tons of carries." Both of these are true, but this is a distinctly lame argument. He was also injured last year, which allows people to point to his decent numbers and say they suggest greatness. He'll play well, but he won't win, or stay in the conversation late.
Braxton Miller: QB, Ohio State
Again, injuries shouldn't insert players into this conversation. He hurt his knee and as a result missed 3 games, but 2,094 passing yards, even over that a shorter interval, does not suggest a Heisman winner. Of course he runs well, and plays for a good team, but the prediction I have seen of 2,500 passing yards, 1,000 rushing yards and 40 combined TD's lies entirely outside the realm of likelihood, in my opinion. However that would probably win the Heisman this year.
Mike Davis: RB, South Carolina
Another great player who won't win a Heisman. Steve Spurrier will rely on him heavily this season, but he's coming off an injury last year, and didn't post spectacular numbers. He's definitely explosive, but we have to be wary of pointing to on field flashiness as a predictor of a Heisman award. He needs great numbers, and probably won't get them. I will say that of these three, I can most easily see Davis staying in the conversation late.

College Football Storylines: Pac 12

Over the next couple of weeks, I will be going conference by conference to give you, dear reader, some collegiate material to chew on before this upcoming season. These are a few things in the Pac 12 that I think are important to note and watch for, in no particular order.

Oregon's offense: Marcus Mariota's Heisman campaign is officially underway, and with nine returning starters on offense we can again count on an absolutely prolific offensive showing from Oregon this year. Out of the backfield, it seems like we are constantly talking about Oregon running backs and their astonishing penchant for 200 yd games. This year, they are without Kenjon Barner from a couple of years ago and De'Anthony Thomas now a Kansas City Chief, but make no mistake. There are several men on this football team who are capable of making exactly the same impact as those two. The most obvious candidate to fill those ridiculously fast and agile shoes would be Byron Marshall. In his third season, he will be vying for the starting spot for the first time as a Duck, but last year proved himself more than capable, with over 1,000 yds rushed and 5 consecutive 100 yd games. That in particular suggests that he can play every Saturday. Another player to watch in Eugene this year is Thomas Tyner, the sophomore who in his debut season last year seemed to get better game by game. He averaged 6.2 yds per carry, scored nine touchdowns, and had a highlight reel 66 run against Washington St. to make a statement. Of course, the last two running backs for the Ducks were the rare sort of players that make an impact regardless of the opponent, but defensive coordinators of the Pac 12 might be forced to admit grudgingly that that sort of one-two combo might be the case again for Oregon. If it is, count on their averaging well north of 40 points per game, as last year's 45.5 would suggest. This should be as fun as it has always been.

Marcus Mariota will lead the Ducks to a probable playoff spot.

UCLA? The Pac 12 championship game is a relatively recent development, and so it's not outrageous that no team but Stanford and Oregon has ever won it. Still, because both of the best Pac 12 teams play in the North division, they cannot meet in the final, and so the rest of the conference is ensured a spot in the game. Coming out of the Pac 12 South, the obvious frontrunner to beat either one in the championship game would be UCLA, led by Brett Hundley. This team has top 10 potential this year according to many. I myself cannot bring myself to agree with that, simply because they have yet to prove themselves against a quality opponent. Last season, UCLA was the flavor of the week... for about a month. By week 8, they had climbed all the way to ninth in the AP top 25, an impressive feat of course for a team not traditionally up there. Everyone was talking about them as a national contender, but after two prompt losses to Stanford and Oregon, 24-10 and 42-14, respectively, they fell out of the spotlight. Until they start winning those sorts of games against top 10 opponents, they are not a true top 10 team. Still, watch for them to build on an overall strong season last year, a 9-3 bid that ended with a good bowl win over Virginia Tech. This team is trending the right way. Also remember the name Miles Jack, a sophomore linebacker and at times running back who will undoubtedly be on sportscenter at one point this season.

Brett Hundley can make a good run at the Heisman this year.

Some random notes, and teams to watch for:
Arizona St. lost 27 seniors last season, by far the most in the conference, so expect them to have an off year to rebuild. They are coming off a great season where it was in fact they who represented the south in the conference championship game, but won't be able to repeat that feat... Cal's defense can't get any worse...can it? Last season they allowed 529.6 yards per game and almost 46 points. That is of course the type of season that loses defensive coordinators their job, and the new Art Kauffman looks to turn things around on that side of the ball for the Golden Bears, who will also appreciate the return of a couple key players. These include defensive end Brennan Scarlett who has missed 17 months and tackle Mustafa Jalil. Those two, plus several junior college prospects, should mean a much improved defensive showing this season. Speaking of which, Oregon's defense will take a step back this year. Last year they were in fact extremely underrated, but with only five returning starters they will not be the same solid front they were last year. There are a couple of question marks here, but mainly up front as they wave goodbye to Wade Keliikipi, Taylor Hart and Ricky Heimuli, all of whom were important parts of a strong defensive unit... Washington is another team on the rise, coming off a respectable 9-4 season. The Huskies, seemingly out of nowhere, gave Stanford a hard time with a 31-28 loss, Oregon a decent 45-24 showing, and UCLA a great game at 41-31. Of course they aren't a great team until we start talking about great wins, but still these testify to the strength of an up and coming team. Watch the Huskies this year. There is something of a question mark at quarterback, and they have a new head coach, but with a solid core of 14 returning starters they can do as well as they did last season or better.

And some predictions:
Heisman watch list: Oregon's Marcus Mariota, UCLA's Brett Hundley, Washington's Cyler Miles, Stanford's Kevin Hogan, UCLA's LB/RB Miles Jack, Arizona State's Taylor Kelly
Sleeper pick: Washington
Conference champion: Oregon

2015 NFL Mock Draft

1. Oakland Raiders: QB Marcus Mariota: As of right now, Matt Schaub is atop the Oakland Raiders depth chart for quarterback, a quarterback with several great seasons in the past, but has struggled to stay healthy as of late. The Raiders will likely need a new quarterback after this year, and Marcus Mariota out of Oregon will be the answer. Mariota could have potentially been the first quarterback off of the draft board this season, but has decided to stay for one more year. The dual-threat quarterback amounted 4,380 total yards with 40 total touchdowns last season, and is the favorite to take home the Heisman trophy this season.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE/OLB Randy Gregory: Randy Gregory and Leonard Williams are considered to be the two best defenders in this year's draft class, where both are feared pass rushers expected to be taken in the first round of the draft. Gregory recorded 10.5 sacks last season for Nebraska, including a three sack performance against Michigan, as he has the skill set that Jacksonville needs in order to improve their atrocious pass rush.

3. Minnesota Vikings: DE Leonard Williams: Former USC coach Lane Kiffin truly believed that Leonard Williams will be one of the best defenders to go through the program, as he is one of the favorites to be the first defender taken in next year's draft. Leonard Williams' six sacks last season are nothing extraordinary, but scouts have high hopes for Williams in 2014.

4. Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo): OT Cedric Ogbuehi: If Ogbuehi were to be a top-10 pick, like we predict, he would be the fifth consecutive player from Texas A&M to do so. Ogbuehi decided to stay for another year at the school, yet his name may no longer be in the spotlight now that star quarterback Johnny Manziel is gone. In order for Cleveland to protect Johnny Football, it would seem like a good idea to draft one of his many talented teammates in this year's draft class.

Keep an eye on Texas A&M OL Cedric Ogbuehi. He said after the CFA Bowl that he received a 1st Rd. grade from the draft advisory board.
— Alex Scarborough (@AlexS_ESPN) January 2, 2014

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Brett Hundley: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will likely need a quarterback by the end of this season, as it seems pretty obvious that Josh McCown and Josh Glennon are not the solution on offense. Hundley, like Mariota, is a dual threat passer with 35 total touchdowns last season.

6. Tennessee Titans: QB Jameis Winston: The reigning Heisman trophy winner and National Champion is expected to leave for the NFL after this season, and some teams will be willing to take the risk, considering his recent off the field allegations. It is also possible that Jameis Winston will fall out of the top 10 if teams are unwilling to deal with the risks, similarly to what took place for Johnny Manziel in this past draft.

7. New York Jets: OT Cameron Erving: Assuming that Michael Vick and Geno Smith do well next season as the starting quarterback, Rex Ryan will need to improve his offensive line in order to protect the passer. Cameron Erving, a member of Florida State's championship winning offensive line, did a great job protecting Winston last season, and could have been a a first round pick in this past draft.

8. Cleveland Browns: RB Todd Gurley: After drafting Johnny Manziel with the 22nd overall pick, the Browns have surrounded their new quarterback with enough talent at wide receiver that he will have plenty of receivers to choose from; however, it is difficult to have a successful passing game without some sort of talent at running back. Gurley is by far the best running back of this draft class, and a solid running game will take some pressure off of their young passer.

9. Miami Dolphins: OT Andrus Peat: The Miami Dolphins gave up the most sacks of any team in the NFL last season, and in this offensive line-heavy draft class, the Dolphins can easily find an answer to this problem. Andrus Peat may even be the first offensive line off the board next April, but we have him going ninth overall.

10. St. Louis Rams: DE Shilique Calhoun: Next season, star defensive end Chris Long will be a 30-year-old free agent, and who knows if the Rams will be willing to pay for a new contract. With Kaepernick and Wilson in the same division, the Rams will need to maintain a powerful pass rush if they want to win the division title.