Sugar Bowl Preview: Alabama (11-1) vs Oklahoma (10-2)

        This should be fun to watch, even if a little lopsided. Alabama is, of course, disgruntled to play in this one, but that doesn't mean they won't put on a show. Remember, they were one made field goal away from playing in (and probably winning) a third national championship. So really we can't expect anything but a thorough whupping from the Tide. Very few folks think otherwise.

Ah for the days of Landry Jones, huh Sooners fans?
As it is, we have no clue who this guy is.

        AJ McCarron almost did it. He almost won 3 national titles, and perhaps even a Heisman. Hopefully, with the help of an upcoming 8 digit NFL contract, a super model girlfriend, and national prominence, he can cope with this crushing despair. We're all pulling for the guy, in these tough times. Anyways, ideally he will end his career leaving no doubt that he is a dominant college football force, thereby allowing the zealous Tide fan base to probably forgive him, despite one of the biggest losses in school history. I'd say if he drops a 40 spot on January 2, they bury the hatchet and call it even. Helping him do that will be an explosive receiving core, led by sophomore Amari Cooper. This group did not graduate a single senior last year, and this game should be the culmination of a season's worth of improvement.

        Youth aside, people are hailing this squad to have "one of the most distinguished senior classes in college football history." Among those playing their final college football games in New Orleans on Thursday are McCarron, C.J. Mosely, wide receivers Kenny Bell and Kevin Norwood, guard Anthony Steen and even punter Cody Mandell. That's a lot of talent, all determined to leave on a good note. Of course, just because T.J. Yeldon isn't in that group doesn't mean he won't feature prominently here. Here's hoping to another money sign double throat slash…

         And the Sooners. I wince, as I write this, but they have scrabbled together their requisite 10 wins this season by rotating 3 starting quarterbacks. 3! In fact, as of this writing (48 hours before game time, about) they have yet to announce their starting quarterback for Thursday. Regardless of whether we see Trevor Knight or Blake Bell however (a duo somewhat optimistically deemed "the two headed monster") I don't see Alabama quaking in their boots. Meanwhile the Sooner defense has yet to really prove themselves against quality opponents. A casual glance at the numbers would suggest a formidable unit, but in two games this season (Baylor and Texas, the two toughest match ups) the Sooner defense have let up over 900 yards. This doesn't bode well.

Hang in there, big guy. Also, you have weird tattoos. 

        Quixotically, some are predicting the best performance we have ever seen from the Sooners, that they might rise to the occasion magnificently, on the coat tails of a bizarre berth-securing win in Bedlam over OSU that included an earthquake. Yet however fated they might think this win is, I can't agree. I have to go Tide, and not in a close one. Alabama 35-Oklahoma 17.

2013 Iron Bowl Preview

        3:30 pm, Eastern standard time, you can bet that the televisions of college football fans across the country will be tuned to one game. #1 Alabama @ #4 Auburn looks to be a decent showing, I think. This year's iron bowl is probably the biggest matchup ever between the two rivals, as in no previous game have both teams been ranked this high at the time they meet.

This year, "The mother of all Iron Bowls" is undoubtedly the best rivalry in the sport. Although the last two iron bowls have seen a total of Alabama 91-14 Auburn, we won't see another blowout this week. Interestingly for a game this huge and historically this crazy, the odds are very lopsided. Vegas sides heavily with the Tide (they opened as 9.5 point favorites, and have climbed high and quickly since then), as do most gurus. The Odds Shark computers see a 44-21 drubbing in store for the Tigers. All this is to be expected, as Alabama has done nothing this season to lose their reputation as the best team in college football, but I believe the game might be closer that that. Auburn has done nothing but trend upwards all season, and although this reasoning isn't popular with the number crunchers, this is always a crazy game. When so many Southerners get so worked up for one sporting event, in one state, to determine the undisputed rulers of said state, crazy stuff should happen. This game is bragging rights to a whole other level. As someone who's never been in Alabama I can't really understand it, but the impression I get is that this will be some sort of glorious, timeless war on a gridiron. Folks write poems, ballads, short plays even about this game, every year. Every player knows that a great performance will permanently cement his name in Alabama state history, not to mention guarantee him a drink in half the bars of the state forever. This game lasts and resonates forever. The winner not only wins for his half of Alabama, but punches their ticket to the national championship as well. We can't forget that, and I promise you these two teams have not. With this much emotion, pressure, and desire in one building at the same time, we really don't know what we'll see.

        But let's not get carried away. A few quick (and obvious) things to watch for…
McCarron needs to step up big if he wants a Heisman trophy in this one. He knows it, we know it, and the Auburn defense (a nasty unit allowing 22 points per game) knows it, for sure. If the Tigers win this one, it will be because of not only a stingy defense but a couple of big plays. I'd say they need to force two turnovers to stay in the game, but the occasional sack is also in order. Look for outside linebacker Dee Ford to have himself a day, as he leads his Tiger team in sacks, tackles for loss, and QB hurries, all  stats which put him close to the top of the SEC individually. The Tigers will only win if we hear his name, and hear it several times.
     
        Alabama has an explosive receiving core, one that can make you regret the blitz in a hurry. Look for sophomore sensation Amari Cooper and senior Kevin Norwood (leading the team with close to 500 receiving yards) to show up. However they have their work cut out for them, against a stingy secondary, led by future NFL stalwart cornerback Chris Davis. We all know TJ Yeldon will feature prominently in any Tide win, but we forget that AJ McCarron has a couple of great targets every play. Finally Auburn RB Tre Mason leads the SEC in rushing. Of course, a quarterback who gives you the ball all the time is nice for a running back's numbers, but regardless he is an impressive kid. That said, I don't see him having a huge day against Alabama's linebackers, including of course C.J. Mosley (just a scary man) and (I had to say his name) Ha-Ha Clinton Dix. These two on the field together go a long way towards stopping any team's offense.
     
        So I don't see the upset. Auburn's freshman quarterback Jeremy Johnson may fold under the pressure completely, but more likely he is simply shut down by a terrifying Alabama pass rush. So he won't have a terrible day at home, but he won't do anything special, and you need to do something really special to beat the Crimson Tide. Alabama's one weakness is an at-times suspect secondary, and they can be exposed when a talented quarterback has explosive outside threats (Johnny Manziel dropped 42 on them, if you recall.) Auburn's lack luster passing game won't do that, and forced to run the ball they will tire and lose it slowly. Crazier things have happened, and especially in this setting, so knowing full well that I may have to eat these words, I unconfidently predict Alabama 28-Auburn 10. 

Heisman Watch Week 12

I was let down this week, when I saw Marcus Mariota lay an egg for three quarters against Stanford. Of course, this makes my job easier as it clears out the top of my list a little, but I'm unwilling to banish the Hawaiian completely from the top 5, something of an overreaction. Anyways, call it unfair, but a loss for a quarterback is like a weight tied to his feet. It would be really tough for Mariota to shake it off and rise back to the top. Does he still have the best stats in college football? By a shade. But he has one important statistic that others may not: a 1 in the loss column. And so, I declare this

1) Jameis Winston's race to lose. He was previously second in my list, but now he has two huge victories this season (then 3 Clemson and then 7 Miami) he can point to, and in both of those games he stepped up big time. He has played his best football against his best opponents this season. That matters a lot in an MVP race, but more importantly his team won big, which is more than Marcus Mariota can say. Famous Jameis is simply looking like the best player in college football. While I could take some heat because everyone is saying this, Winston now controls his own destiny. If he wins out, even only semi-convincingly, he will most certainly find himself in New York, on a stage, stumbling through a speech written by a PR agent for the Seminoles. I tip my hat to the freshman, who is having a run for the ages. Although he is coming off a terrible day against Wake Forest (160 yards passing and a bad interception in a blow out victory) the only thing close to Winston in this race is his shadow, and even that he's beating by several lengths. I mean he is now 1-5 odds to win the race. For those who are confused, or simply less versed in the ways of the track, that means you'll make 1 dollar for every 5 you bet on him to win. In complete layman terms: he's such a lock that they won't give you much of a reward at all for picking him. Those are ridiculous odds. He is opening up a lead that we haven't in a long time for the Heisman: a true no doubter, like the Pats in the playoffs or Koji Uehara in the ninth. Get used to seeing his name up here.

Chances are, that ball's a completion

2) Bryce Petty is second now just because I wanted him to have a big day against a good defense, it looked like he wasn't going to, but then he pulled it out. And by pulling it out, I mean a 41-12 curb-stomping of the Sooners. Oklahoma fields a pretty darn good football team, but Petty left no doubt about the superiority of his squad. He has now passed for close to 2,700 yards in 8 games, and is at the head of a beautiful offense. It is truly a pleasure to watch the Bears march down the field. For over a quarter, they had me scared with their ineffectiveness last Thursday, but when they found their rhythm… oh boy. Petty passed for 3 touchdowns and ran for 2, and he is looking like, dare I say it, a fairly NFL ready quarterback. He just showed up in a major way, and looks to continue the magic against OSU this weekend. His odds went from 28-1 to 8-1, so he remains a long shot. Interestingly, Vegas prefers Johnny Football (at a 3-1 pick). Obviously I disagree.

3) AJ McCarron is a little overrated, to be honest, but that's just making up for 2 years of neglect, so I suppose it's fair. I have to hand it to him, he proved his quality against a good LSU team in a terrific game. If you missed it, it was tied in Tuscaloosa midway through the third when the Tide decided to win the game. They proceeded to score 21 unanswered points en route to a comfortable 38-17 victory. The latest great installment in this rivalry was not only enormously entertaining, but demonstrative of McCarron's (and his team's) ability to take over a game, even against a great opponent. This wasn't a perfect game for 'Bama, but McCarron's 3 touchdown passes proved to be the difference maker and they ended up winning big. LSU looked ready to make a statement against Alabama, but the Tide responded by playing their best half of college football this season, in the words of Nick Saban. McCarron was obviously a major factor in this, and I have to agree. As for LSU, fumbling on your first 2 processions is not how you beat a great team.

4) Johnny Manziel has now passed for 3,313 yards this season. That is flatly ridiculous, and beats other (present and former) frontrunners Mariota and Winston by several hundred yards. How then, is he not at the top of this prestigious list? Two losses (due to a now completely pathetic, floating belly-up defense) in big games this season are keeping Johnny from the trophy. Two losses to Alabama and Auburn in which he scored a combined 83 points, but two losses all the same. That, plus the general sense of somewhat sloppy play at times (11 picks) will keep Johnny Football from repeating the feat this year. To the Dallas columnists crying out that he should be the lock this year, I point out those two facts.

5) Marcus Mariota will not win the Heisman this year. He has yet to throw a pick, (for a nice 22:0 touchdown to interception ratio) a fact I have always found remarkable and repeated often, but all of a sudden he has fumbled the ball 8 times. A couple of those (including one in the red zone) proved ultimately costly against Stanford last week in a 6 point in-conference loss. Ah well, I guess Alabama Oregon wasn't the game we all wanted to see after all. Unfortunately for Mariota, a late loss in a thinning Heisman crowd will lose you the race. Manziel is above him, because his losses occurred earlier in the season. Call it what you like (unfair, perhaps?), that's college football. Oregon's offense lost that sense of otherworldliness this week, that sheen of perfection which seemed to drive them forward no matter what the opponent. They were stopped just enough times against Stanford, simply put. As the offense goes, so go Mariota's Heisman hopes. Still a great football team, still a great player, but only up here because no one else really fills the 5 hole.

And there you have my top 5 for Heisman week 12, although really only the top 1 is relevant.
Just as an interesting side note, this has been bouncing around the college football universe this week.
Player of the week:
UCLA Bruin Myles Jack: six carries for 120 yards and a touchdown, 8 tackles, a tackle for a loss, a fumble recovery and 2 passes broken up.
That's right. He played linebacker and running back last week against Arizona. My initial reaction was very "You've got to be kidding…" But there it is on the stat sheet. Good Lord. This freshman is probably destined for something special. He is won the Pac 12 offensive player of the week award… despite being a linebacker.

Heisman Watch Week 11

Unless you like Army-Air Force (and trust me, you don't) this past week was intensely boring, and this coming from a dedicated college football fan. There were two games of big ranked opponents, but as it turned out neither one was very close; OSU beat Texas Tech big, and the 'Noles dropped 41 on an angry Miami team. Does Jameis Winston now deserve the 1 spot? That remains to be seen, but personally I think he'll lose it after Mariota's humongous day against Stanford this coming Thursday night. So remember, these are subject to change. I think the Duck will win the Heisman race. Plus, I like saying that. The Duck for Heisman! Just a thought, but for a team that's all about swagger, sick uniforms, recruits, and being the coolest team on the field, a duck is kinda a lame mascot. You have to embrace it, I guess.

1) Jameis Winston created quite the conundrum for those of us trying to put together a Heisman watch list. On an off week for frontrunner Marcus Mariota, Winston threw for 325 yards (good) but also 2 picks (bad) and only 1 touchdown (also bad). However his squad came up with a statement win, and so he's batting leadoff this week. I had to give it to him. Again, I believe that a team's success is essential in determining the value of a quarterback candidate. Not to mention he has now broken the 2500 yards passing mark, in 8 games, as a freshman. The one misgiving I have about Winston up here (it's getting pretty lonely) is his 6 picks on the season. This doesn't sound like a problem, until you realize...

Mariota has thrown for 20 touchdowns in 8 games this season

2) Marcus Mariota has 0. That's right, he hasn't thrown an interception yet this season. That, along with his 29 total touchdowns, put him in a prime position to seize the top spot next week. Life must be pretty good for the Ducks. They are looking forward to a thrashing of another wanna be PAC 12 champ this week in the Cardinal, and they are set on cruising to an undefeated season. I'm a little too confident they'll win, but see my next article for predictions in that and other games this upcoming week. Meanwhile Mariota can look forward to his Heisman moment, feasting on the Stanford secondary. If, of course, his offensive line can keep him off his back, because a very scary Stanford front 7 needs to be contained if Mariota wants to win big, on the field and in my rankings.

3) Bryce Petty is also coming off a bye (this week really, really sucked) but other 2nd tier candidates had byes as well, and so here he is. A schedule of pathetic caliber cannot negate entirely what the junior QB has done down in Waco this season. His Bear squad are averaging 63.9 points a game, and in 7 games so far he has passed for 2453 yards. Thank God he has 3 ranked opponents in the next three weeks. Baylor vs Oklahoma, also on Thursday night, will be a great game during Oregon-Stanford commercials, but again see the next article folks. Petty is about to force himself into the elite conversation or entirely eliminate himself from it, but we'll see if his ridiculous numbers translate against an actual football team.

4) AJ McCarron is the lucky candidate this week, as he moves up after a bye, but more and more people are talking about him simply because Alabama has looked so, so good. We also can't forget that for the most part, an SEC schedule is really tough on a quarterback. That being said, I will never subscribe to the "an average quarterback in the SEC would dominate in any other conference" school of thought. I disagree with this because, although the SEC is the best conference in college football, the PAC 12 and Big 12 can now kinda contest that, and although McCarron has had some nasty defenses to play this year, he has also had the opportunity to feast on the likes of Colorado St, Georgia St, and Kentucky. So strength of schedule balances out in the end, and McCarron does not deserve the Heisman this year, yet. Sorry, college football trend setters.

5) Johnny Manziel wins the award for strangest 57 point performance by a quarterback this week.  Obviously he could relax a little, but his seasonal numbers may have taken a hit as he passed for only 273 yards against UTEP. In less than 3 quarters however, he scored 6 touchdowns. Go figure. Manziel remains out of the true contending conversation, and barring huge conference performances against LSU and Missouri, he doesn't have the numbers or the record to repeat the feat this year. He still remains behind Bryce Petty at least, if Mariota and Winston ever stop being awesome. This is unfair, as he has had some great moments and some great games, but still 2 losses condemn him. Manziel's defense is floating belly-up at this point, and seems to have given up on the whole "don't let them score" philosophy against any ranked opponent. It is bad in College Station, but Manziel keeps me watching Aggie games when I can.

College Football Power Rankings (Week 10)

After a week of bizarre upsets (with 5 teams in the top 10 losing) some order was restored last Saturday, as favorites rolled and everyone else sputtered along. A couple of teams unused to top 10 status were knocked back down to their rightful spots (Missouri and Texas Tech) and in all it was a more or less predictable set of games. I suppose game 3 of the fall classic used up all of the ridiculousness in sports allowed for one day… but I digress.
Easily the enjoyable race to watch this year has become the matchup between FSU and Oregon. Both have young QB's dominating the Heisman conversation, and both are desperate for big wins to push them into the 2 slot, battling for the opportunity to pit their considerable talent against that perennial behemoth, the mighty Crimson Tide. The BCS and the AP poll last week were divided, with the computers preferring the Seminoles by a shade. Every week the 2 and 3 rankings seem like a toss-up, but personally I am going with the Ducks in the two hole after a nice, "cute, but we're the big boys of the Pac 12"message sending type of win over the straight-out-of-highschool Bruins.

1. Alabama: People forget what an impressive receiving core AJ McCarron has at his disposal: not a single player graduated at wide receiver last year, and several studs returned from an injury plagued 2012, possibly rendering WR the Tide's deepest position this year. It really seems like they never run out of weapons, from true-sophomore sensation Amari Cooper (5 receptions for 75 yards and a TD) to Kevin Norwood (6 receptions for 112 yards) to DeAndrew White and Kenny Bell, how on earth do you defend a team that can hurt you in so many ways? Tennessee would have liked to have found the answer to that question. Of course I couldn't write about Bama without mentioning TJ Yeldon and his 3 TD's yesterday, the latest in a dynasty of great running backs. To those who toy with the idea of dethroning Alabama from the 1 spot, I say these guys aren't going anywhere, except the national championship in January.

2. Oregon: The Oregon Ducks had me worried, I'll admit, when they went into the half tied at 14. Both of UCLA's touchdowns came off of big defensive plays, however, and it was that half of the Bruin team that kept them in the game. When Brett Hundley's offense couldn't buy a first down in the second half, Oregon ran wild on the Bruins and the game quickly got out of hand, ending 42-14, shockingly close to my prediction of, I believe, 45-10 last week. However, I was way off in one respect: I called Mariota to have a monster game, and he really didn't. It was the return of DeAnthony Thomas, not to mention Byron Marshall's 3 TD's on the ground that proved decisive here. But Mariota's mediocre 230 yard day actually revealed a further strength about this squad. If their remarkable quarterback is having his brand of off day, they will hurt you badly on the ground. They did this against a previously vaunted UCLA run defense. You need a balanced team to win big, and the Ducks proved without a doubt that they have just that.

3. Florida St: I got excited when I tuned to FSU vs. NCST, ready for a big day from my now favorite Heisman candidate. I was keeping tabs on other games, but each time I changed the channel back, I saw the 'Noles put up another TD, until by the end, Winston had 3 TD's and his offense had 35 points. The end of the first quarter, that is. Yes, in 15 minutes, the Seminoles scored 5 times, 2 TD's being beautiful 40 yard passes to the end zone, Winston's big moments. This 49-17 rout of a truly pathetic tackling Wolfpack didn't say much about the Seminoles, except perhaps that they appreciate their former head coach. But with sixth ranked Miami next week, it's good to see they didn't lose sight of the present. That's a great game coming up, by the way, the ACC is back!

4. Ohio St: Ok, pass the humble pie please. I was not a huge fan of the Buckeyes this year, and after two lackluster wins over bad opponents, I picked them to be upset by Penn St. this week, in my one unorthodox call. Plenty of good teams were losing to bad ones, the Nittany Lions were coming off a bye (and before that an emotional 4 OT win over the Wolverines)… all the stars seemed aligned for Urban Meyer's squad to tumble, finally. My hunch proved slightly incorrect. The only thing upset in this game was Penn St. freshman Christian Hackenburg's balance, as he was sacked 4 times in a lopsided 63-14 loss, Penn St.'s worst in over 100 years. OSU proved superiority in every sense, playing a great physical brand of football. 238 lb RB Carlos Hyde moves like he's 30 lbs smaller, and he kept up his impressive streak of games with another 2 TD's. Braxton Miller was phenomenal despite a slight injury scare, running for 2 touchdowns and passing for 3. No big deal, as OSU finally gets the statement win they were looking for.

5. Baylor: Another week, another 60 spot from the boys in green. To be exact, they are averaging 63.9 points a game, led by junior QB Bryce Petty. In less than 3 quarters (saving his arm, perhaps, for a big home game against Oklahoma next week) he threw for 430 yards, 3 touchdowns and ran for another against the Kansas defense, this week's victims to the sports car/tank that is the Baylor offense. They took two series to warm up, but boy, when they get going there is very little that gets in their way. Of course, the cupcake schedule so far for the Bears has set them against everything short of a Pop Warner team, but still, to put up the type of numbers this team puts up every week is shocking. Thankfully, they will face 3 ranked opponents in the next 3 weeks, and if they win those 3 convincingly, I do not know what we'll do at the top of the rankings. The playoff can't come soon enough… but for now, the Bears can worry about #9 Oklahoma, #15 Texas Tech, and #12 Oklahoma St. They are probably relishing the chance to prove themselves against 3 legit squads. Three great games are coming our way from this Baylor team, but that's my next article.