Heisman Watch: Week 4

With the season now well underway, talk about the Heisman race can really heat up. No surprises, really, at this point in the season. Besides of course that so far I was spot on in my preseason predictions. Here's a list of top five Heisman candidates, contingent upon not just their current performance but how I see them playing (and thus making their case) in the next couple of weeks. I also tried to spice it up a little, positionally. 

Absolute no doubter

Marcus Mariota is a no doubter at the top of this list. It was a couple of weeks ago when the to date biggest game of the year was on display in Michigan St. vs Oregon, and Mariota did not hurt his case. As I was taught when a wee lad, Heisman moments make Heisman campaigns. Well, Mariota had his moment. Down 24-18 at the half, with the world whispering of an upset in the making and the producers on sports center licking their chops at some "not so mighty ducks" puns, Mariota came out of the locker room and played one of the better halves of football we've seen in a while. He dropped a casual 28 in a half to finish with a resounding 46-27 win over the then 7th ranked Spartans. Suffice it to say this was an awesome game, in which Mariota finished with 318 yards and 3 touchdowns, against one of the better defenses in the country. To top that off, last week he missed a grand total of 4 passes against Wyoming en route to a 48-14 victory, with four total touchdowns, good for an almost perfect performance. Not hurting his chances, certainly. Watch for Mariota to make another statement this week as the Ducks travel to Washington St, a respectable Pac 12 foe. For now, he's miles ahead of the pack. 

Kenny Hill, the sophomore quarterback from Texas A&M is a surprising candidate for the award this year. In this horse race, they're coming around the far turn and he's starting to make his move on the heavy favorite. But the more you think about it, the more it looks like the Heisman is his for the taking. He absolutely has the team for it, (the Aggies are currently ranked sixth and they don't look like they want to stop any time soon) and in the SEC he certainly has the schedule, with the likes of Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Missouri. All those teams are national contenders, and if Hill and the Aggies run the table (I'm not saying that's going to happen) it will be hard to deny that he's the most valuable player in college football. He has already exhibited that uncanny penchant for dazzling, diverse displays of offensive fireworks we see from, for example, the Ducks. The only thing that separates Mariota from Hill is currently Mariota's history; we know Mariota can and will drop video game numbers, because he's been doing it for a while now. Hill, to his credit, has 11 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and 1,094 yards passing in 3 games this season, with a completion percentage nearing 70%, but the size of his sample size holds him back, for now. Still that's a trend we'd like to see continue. So watch him all season, because we'll see some great games in which he features as prominently as M&M's in trail mix. 

"Johnny Football who?"

Now we drop off a bit, but don't tell Jameis Winston that. Statistically, and unfairly, I don't think Winston has another trip to New York in him. He has of course been effective in two games so far this season, but has passed for only 3 touchdowns compared with 2 interceptions. Not a ratio that will win the award this season, with other outstanding quarterbacks in the mix. 

[Now the horses back here are gasping for breath, and we (the crowd) are vaguely aware that it is the same race, but on some level unsure if they're even viable contenders. We don't spend too much time worrying about them though, preferring the stallions who are something like 40 lengths ahead, for the moment.] 

He does that really, really well

Amari Cooper is the currently sexy Heisman pick, but he's by no one's measure the frontrunner. What he is is an outrageously athletic wideout on a great team, who made his debut a couple of years ago and has been in the back of mind ever since. He is also off to a blazing start, with 33 catches and 454 yards in three games. That's absolutely ridiculous on a team and under a coach that loves to run, against stingy SEC secondaries. He'll stay on my list of top five players until he cools off, and I can't predict when that'll happen. This guy's an animal. 

Todd Gurley is on my list as the best running back in contention. If I had my way, however, he wouldn't be up here. His sixth ranked Bulldogs just lost to rival 24 South Carolina, for starters, and that is a heavy mark against him already. He's averaging over 100 yards a game, and in the SEC that is worth watching of course, with statement performances brewing in the future, but that's a tough hit to take to your chances this early in the season. 

Pre-season Heisman Watch List

With the AP top 25 just released, it appears that season is open on every possible college football analysis. With that in mind, I am inclined to present my Heisman watch list for the 2014 college football season. There are no real surprises on this list, but keep in mind that for two years running, the Heisman winner has been a freshman, so I give somewhere around a 60-40 chance that I have here given the winner.

Marcus Mariota: QB, Oregon
Mariota was the Heisman frontrunner for most of 2013 before fading down the stretch, suggesting he definitely has the potential to win the award. The athletic junior passed for over 3,600 yards last year and threw 31 touchdowns. Although he has to work on his consistency as a passer (3 games last season completing under 50% of his passes), he makes up for it with almost one rushing touchdown per game. The high powered spread offense around Mariota is of course enormously talented, and tailored almost perfectly to his skill set. Mariota will post Heisman numbers this season, but his campaign will hinge, as per usual, on big wins and big moments. He probably won't be able to win the Heisman if he loses a game, except a BCS playoff game.

Jameis Winston: QB, Florida State

"We strong:" They certainly are this year 

I don't think he'll repeat, but he'll come close. People tend now to forget just how exciting Winston was for all of last season, from the first game. With over 4,000 passing yards in a season and a national championship, he's definitely not the Messiah, but he can play football really well. He set freshman season records for the NCAA in passing yards and touchdowns (with 40, also an ACC single season record.) Winston will have great stats on a great team, behind what is probably the best offensive line in the country. In short, I don't have him first on this list simply because it would be a statistical anomaly.


Bryce Petty: QB, Baylor
Last year's first time starter dropped a casual 4,200 passing yards with 4 interceptions. Not a typo there. At the helm of a shiny and outrageous Baylor offense, which averaged 52.4 points per game, he went to a BCS bowl game and suffered a disappointing loss. Unfortunately, Petty's competition probably won't prove stiff enough to merit a Heisman award, but at one point his stats may speak simply for themselves. In a new stadium, with an upcoming team, Petty is definitely a player to watch this year.

TJ Yeldon: RB, Alabama
Yeldon isn't found close to this high on most lists, but most arguments against him hinge around one point: He has many talented backs behind him, and if his fumbling issues rear their ugly head early in the season, he may not get enough carries to fuel a Heisman campaign. This isn't really a legitimate argument, as that can be said about many players, regardless of depth chart. I hereby concede that yes, if Yeldon fumbles the ball a lot, he won't win a Heisman. That isn't rocket science, nor is it exclusive to the running back from Alabama. He is also vying for a national championship, which means a lot when considering this award. Ultimately, he will prove to be an offensive focal point for possibly the best team in the country, which screams Heisman candidate.

Count on seeing a lot of that this year. 

Brett Hundley: QB, UCLA
He moves, he passed for over 3,000 yards, he leads his team well, (a team which may be contending for the first time ever) and he isn't yet a finished product. He also has the strength of schedule to present the potential Heisman moment, notably against Oregon in week seven. All this means I'd be foolish not to put him on my list. While the hype was a little overdone last year, it wasn't that far off the mark. Definitely a player you'll hear a lot about this season, and in a great conference he should have his share of the limelight.

Dashing, there's no other word for it. 

My dark horse candidate has to be Maty Mauk, Missouri's quarterback for the second half of last season. Missouri was predicted to finish last in the SEC east at the beginning of last season, and instead behind Mauk they maintained a top 10 national ranking for several weeks, eventually reaching #5, and played in the SEC championship game after an 11-1 regular season. There they lost 59-42, but posting 42 points against Auburn's defense is a win when we're talking about Heisman potential. Although he isn't a topic of hot discussion, keep an eye on Mauk this season, as he finished up last season with an impressive win over Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.

Notable omissions:
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
"He's athletic, and they lost Aaron Murray so he'll get tons of carries." Both of these are true, but this is a distinctly lame argument. He was also injured last year, which allows people to point to his decent numbers and say they suggest greatness. He'll play well, but he won't win, or stay in the conversation late.
Braxton Miller: QB, Ohio State
Again, injuries shouldn't insert players into this conversation. He hurt his knee and as a result missed 3 games, but 2,094 passing yards, even over that a shorter interval, does not suggest a Heisman winner. Of course he runs well, and plays for a good team, but the prediction I have seen of 2,500 passing yards, 1,000 rushing yards and 40 combined TD's lies entirely outside the realm of likelihood, in my opinion. However that would probably win the Heisman this year.
Mike Davis: RB, South Carolina
Another great player who won't win a Heisman. Steve Spurrier will rely on him heavily this season, but he's coming off an injury last year, and didn't post spectacular numbers. He's definitely explosive, but we have to be wary of pointing to on field flashiness as a predictor of a Heisman award. He needs great numbers, and probably won't get them. I will say that of these three, I can most easily see Davis staying in the conversation late.

Heisman Watch Week 12

I was let down this week, when I saw Marcus Mariota lay an egg for three quarters against Stanford. Of course, this makes my job easier as it clears out the top of my list a little, but I'm unwilling to banish the Hawaiian completely from the top 5, something of an overreaction. Anyways, call it unfair, but a loss for a quarterback is like a weight tied to his feet. It would be really tough for Mariota to shake it off and rise back to the top. Does he still have the best stats in college football? By a shade. But he has one important statistic that others may not: a 1 in the loss column. And so, I declare this

1) Jameis Winston's race to lose. He was previously second in my list, but now he has two huge victories this season (then 3 Clemson and then 7 Miami) he can point to, and in both of those games he stepped up big time. He has played his best football against his best opponents this season. That matters a lot in an MVP race, but more importantly his team won big, which is more than Marcus Mariota can say. Famous Jameis is simply looking like the best player in college football. While I could take some heat because everyone is saying this, Winston now controls his own destiny. If he wins out, even only semi-convincingly, he will most certainly find himself in New York, on a stage, stumbling through a speech written by a PR agent for the Seminoles. I tip my hat to the freshman, who is having a run for the ages. Although he is coming off a terrible day against Wake Forest (160 yards passing and a bad interception in a blow out victory) the only thing close to Winston in this race is his shadow, and even that he's beating by several lengths. I mean he is now 1-5 odds to win the race. For those who are confused, or simply less versed in the ways of the track, that means you'll make 1 dollar for every 5 you bet on him to win. In complete layman terms: he's such a lock that they won't give you much of a reward at all for picking him. Those are ridiculous odds. He is opening up a lead that we haven't in a long time for the Heisman: a true no doubter, like the Pats in the playoffs or Koji Uehara in the ninth. Get used to seeing his name up here.

Chances are, that ball's a completion

2) Bryce Petty is second now just because I wanted him to have a big day against a good defense, it looked like he wasn't going to, but then he pulled it out. And by pulling it out, I mean a 41-12 curb-stomping of the Sooners. Oklahoma fields a pretty darn good football team, but Petty left no doubt about the superiority of his squad. He has now passed for close to 2,700 yards in 8 games, and is at the head of a beautiful offense. It is truly a pleasure to watch the Bears march down the field. For over a quarter, they had me scared with their ineffectiveness last Thursday, but when they found their rhythm… oh boy. Petty passed for 3 touchdowns and ran for 2, and he is looking like, dare I say it, a fairly NFL ready quarterback. He just showed up in a major way, and looks to continue the magic against OSU this weekend. His odds went from 28-1 to 8-1, so he remains a long shot. Interestingly, Vegas prefers Johnny Football (at a 3-1 pick). Obviously I disagree.

3) AJ McCarron is a little overrated, to be honest, but that's just making up for 2 years of neglect, so I suppose it's fair. I have to hand it to him, he proved his quality against a good LSU team in a terrific game. If you missed it, it was tied in Tuscaloosa midway through the third when the Tide decided to win the game. They proceeded to score 21 unanswered points en route to a comfortable 38-17 victory. The latest great installment in this rivalry was not only enormously entertaining, but demonstrative of McCarron's (and his team's) ability to take over a game, even against a great opponent. This wasn't a perfect game for 'Bama, but McCarron's 3 touchdown passes proved to be the difference maker and they ended up winning big. LSU looked ready to make a statement against Alabama, but the Tide responded by playing their best half of college football this season, in the words of Nick Saban. McCarron was obviously a major factor in this, and I have to agree. As for LSU, fumbling on your first 2 processions is not how you beat a great team.

4) Johnny Manziel has now passed for 3,313 yards this season. That is flatly ridiculous, and beats other (present and former) frontrunners Mariota and Winston by several hundred yards. How then, is he not at the top of this prestigious list? Two losses (due to a now completely pathetic, floating belly-up defense) in big games this season are keeping Johnny from the trophy. Two losses to Alabama and Auburn in which he scored a combined 83 points, but two losses all the same. That, plus the general sense of somewhat sloppy play at times (11 picks) will keep Johnny Football from repeating the feat this year. To the Dallas columnists crying out that he should be the lock this year, I point out those two facts.

5) Marcus Mariota will not win the Heisman this year. He has yet to throw a pick, (for a nice 22:0 touchdown to interception ratio) a fact I have always found remarkable and repeated often, but all of a sudden he has fumbled the ball 8 times. A couple of those (including one in the red zone) proved ultimately costly against Stanford last week in a 6 point in-conference loss. Ah well, I guess Alabama Oregon wasn't the game we all wanted to see after all. Unfortunately for Mariota, a late loss in a thinning Heisman crowd will lose you the race. Manziel is above him, because his losses occurred earlier in the season. Call it what you like (unfair, perhaps?), that's college football. Oregon's offense lost that sense of otherworldliness this week, that sheen of perfection which seemed to drive them forward no matter what the opponent. They were stopped just enough times against Stanford, simply put. As the offense goes, so go Mariota's Heisman hopes. Still a great football team, still a great player, but only up here because no one else really fills the 5 hole.

And there you have my top 5 for Heisman week 12, although really only the top 1 is relevant.
Just as an interesting side note, this has been bouncing around the college football universe this week.
Player of the week:
UCLA Bruin Myles Jack: six carries for 120 yards and a touchdown, 8 tackles, a tackle for a loss, a fumble recovery and 2 passes broken up.
That's right. He played linebacker and running back last week against Arizona. My initial reaction was very "You've got to be kidding…" But there it is on the stat sheet. Good Lord. This freshman is probably destined for something special. He is won the Pac 12 offensive player of the week award… despite being a linebacker.