2015-2016 Fantasy Football Love/Hate

I know it's been a while. You may not even remember me anymore. My name is Gabe Schmittlein. I'm back. Matthew Berry just came out with his Fantasy Football Love/Hate article for the upcoming season and I was inspired to give all the dedicated readers of the NFL Report my own view on the landscape of fantasy football. So -- Matthew Berry, my muse -- this one's for you.

Love:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers and Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts --

Rodgers and Luck can be looped in together because they are far-and-away the top two fantasy options at quarterback this year. Brady is suspended/not-suspended/who-the-hell-knows, Peyton Manning's arm strength is right down there with the Mark Sanchez's of the world (that's not good), and Drew Brees has a receiving core made up of guys who are not Jimmy Graham. Mid-level options behind Rodgers and Luck are there, but even guys like Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matthew Stafford represent steep drop-offs in value from Rodgers and Luck and don't represent extraordinarily higher values than their late draft quarterback counterparts like Ryan Tannehill or Sam Bradford. The first few rounds of fantasy football drafts are all about maximizing value in positions where value can be most effectively maximized (if ya see what I mean)... For example, running backs are often drafted so high because there tends to be a sharp drop-off in fantasy quality, while receivers are drafted lower because the difference between the 1st and 20th best receiver is marginal when compared to the difference between the 1st and 20th best running backs. So take Rodgers and Luck. Or Don't. But don't be a sucker and take Peyton Manning in the second round.

Wide Receivers in the Second/Third Round --

Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green. Alshon Jefferey. T.Y. Hilton. With the usual high splurge on running backs, those are all the wide receivers that could be available in rounds two and three. Picking up most of those guys in the second round would represent a good value and getting any of them in the third round would be incredible. Be aware that there is a decently sharp drop-off after these wideouts, so you don't want to be the one guy in your league to go quarterback in the second round (don't. pick. manning.) and have to draft after all of these guys are gone.

Jeremy Maclin --

He's going way way way too low right now. Maclin thrived last season with Mark Sanchez at the helm, and I don't see Alex Smith being a huge downgrade from him. Sure, Chip Kelly's scheme played a part, but Maclin was great under Andy Reid when he was in Philly too. Matthew Berry said that Maclin was going in the eighth round in most ESPN leagues, down with Mike Wallace, Jarvis Landry, and Allen Robinson. Ridiculous is what that is. Hey, if you can get Maclin in the eighth round, that represents awesome value, but I'd even be happy if you took him as early as the fifth or sixth round. Pro-tip - if you're playing with a bunch of guys on auto draft, he'll likely fall right into your hands in the eighth round, so at least there's some good news with him being ranked as low as he is.

Hate

Tight Ends Not Name Gronkowski or Graham --

Ugh. See Rodgers and Luck paragraph above. Or I'll just type it out in a slightly different way down here... Gronkowski and Graham represent a massive value gap between them and the rest of their position, so I'm fine with either of them in the first couple rounds. However, guys like Travis Kelce, Greg Olson, and Julius Thomas that are being drafted around the fifth round don't seem to be providing a maximized value over a tight end that you could be drafting in the tenth round (Zach Ertz is totally gonna get it going this year!!). On the other hand, the difference between a wide receiver/running back in the fifth round and the tenth round is going to be huge.

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions --

The Abdullah hype train has been very real the past couple weeks, but I struggle to see where his value is going to come. He's not going to get many touchdowns, as Joique Bell is one of the more accomplished goal line backs in the league, and he's not going to get as many touches as you'd hope, once again because of the aforementioned Joique Bell. I guess he provides some value as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but it isn't enough to warrant the sixth round (about) draft slot that he's been getting in most leagues. I do like Abdullah in the long term, but it's going to take time for him to win carries away from Bell, who I actually think is being drafted too low right now.

Defenses and Kickers --

Matthew Berry said this in his Love/Hate article, but I believe I said it in my Love/Hate article prior to last season, so if anything he's copying me. Please please please don't draft a defense or a kicker before the last couple rounds. Berry listed a whole catalog of people who he hates more than those who draft defenses and kickers in the first ten rounds, and it was all very cute. I'll say this, though, (and I mean it for real) I hate those sort of people more than I hate cleaning off the inside of peanut butter containers so they can go in the recycling. Sorry to one-up you Berry, but I hope you understand that I don't mean any harm because we're fighting on the same side. The opportunity for maximizing value in positions where value can most effectively be maximized is almost negligible when talking about defenses and kickers. In terms of defenses, it makes much more sense statistically to just pick up a defense that has an easy matchup every week, while for kickers, our ability to predict their year-to-year success is really really poor so you're better off (once again) keeping your eye on the waiver wire.

NFL Midseason Predictions: Super Bowl Update

While the final seeding for the playoffs is hazy, it becomes easier to predict the teams who will earn a spot in the postseason by the halfway point of the season. At this point in time, the Seahawks, 49ers, and Saints are all on track to miss the postseason, whereas the Bills, Cardinals, and Cowboys are all projected to finish the regular season with a spot in the playoffs. While this is certain to change, the NFL is not surprising in that there will always be surprises. At the beginning of the season, we predicted the New England Patriots to beat Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers by a final score of 24-23. While we still believe that the Patriots will make an appearance in the Super Bowl (if, and only if, Rob Gronkowski is healthy throughout the playoffs), we are changing the NFC Champion after watching football for the past 8 weeks from San Fran to the Green Bay Packers. Now, let's go into further detail regarding this quarterback battle for the ages, as well as predicting the new champions of football.

Patriots Offense
Tom Brady experienced a statistically historic October. With Rob Gronkowski returning from injury at the start of the season, the Patriots offense has gradually improved over the course of the year. Julian Edelman remains Tom Brady’s favorite target, but Bill Belicheck is slowly increasing Gronk’s workload in the offense, which is directly proportional to the Patriots improving record overtime. Recently acquired targets Brandon LaFell and Tim Wright have both had their bright spots in 2014, and it will be interesting to see how the fare later in the season. While running back Steven Ridley may be out for the rest of the season, Jonas Gray and Shane Vereen have stepped up nicely to fill the void.

Packers Offense
While the Packers are not currently atop the NFC North standings right now, Green Bay is always a threat to win the division as long as Aaron Rodgers is leading this offense. Wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are both experiencing incredible seasons thus far, where Cobb is averaging one touchdown per game. Running back Eddie Lacy is experiencing a down year as of this point in time, but seeing how outstanding his season was in 2013, we at least understand that the potential to do well is present.

Patriots Defense

The New England Patriots secondary might just be the best we've seen from head coach Bill Belichick since he took over for the Patriots nearly 15 years ago. Darrelle Revis is beginning to look like his former self, and fellow cornerback Brandon Browner has already recorded 6 tackles and an interception. While Jerard Mayo's injury will be significant in the long run, the Patriots certainly managed to shut down the Denver Broncos offense last week. The win over Denver was even without their best pass rusher Chandler Jones, but luckily, he will be ready to go come playoff time.

Packers Defense
The Green Bay Packers run defense currently ranks dead last in the entire National Football League. There are currently several big names on this defensive roster, such as Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, and AJ Hawk, who are all very talented defensive players, but clearly, they add little to the run defense.  Meanwhile, the secondary is incredibly youthful, where four out of the five members of the secondary are 25 years old or younger. Yet clearly, it has paid off, seeing how they rank eighth in passing yards allowed, as well as fourth in passing touchdowns allowed.

Quarterback Tom Brady is on a mission to win his fourth Super Bowl after losing in both 2007 and 2011. The New England Patriots showed they are capable of limiting great quarterbacks, as seen with the game against Denver, so count on Bill Belichick on creating a game plan meant to suppress Aaron Rodgers as much as possible. Meanwhile, Tom Brady will be able to pick away at this young Green Bay secondary, as New England manages to win their fourth Super Bowl in 14 years.
Patriots over Packers 30-27 

College Football-NFL Comparisons: Teddy Bridgewater

        Teddy Bridgewater has been on everyone's minds for two full seasons now, as a couple of years ago he went on a tear and rose to national prominence. Since then, people expected a Heisman out of him (not really close) and definitely a high draft pick, perhaps even first overall (much closer). Bridgewater's is a slight frame by NFL standards, at a combine 6'2" and 214 lbs. Other than this however, (a weakness easily remedied by an NFL strength program which could probably add 10 or 15 solid pounds to his collegiate frame) Bridgewater does not have many things going against him. While there is no stand out quarterback in this draft, Bridgewater is widely accepted to come closest to an Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin type player this year. He is by no means at their level, but he is closest. He, for one, believes that "I'm the best quarterback in the NFL draft."  He won't go first overall in all probability, but he will likely be taken top 5. Potential suitors definitely include the Jaguars who are looking for a quarterback and are intrigued by the former Cardinal. Obviously Houston at the top of the draft could spring for him as well, but most agree that in a relatively bad quarterback year the Texans might wait on that position. 

        I have seen one intriguing comparison this year, and it is certainly generous to a fault, but NFL.com holds that Bridgewater reminds us of an Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was picked late in the first round, and is 6'2" 225 lbs. Beyond similar size, when he is at the top of his game Bridgewater absolutely reminds me of an elite quarterback. Like a Rodgers, he has an impressive ability to move up in the pocket and extend plays with his feet, keeping his eyes downfield. He throws a great long ball, (sometimes it is nothing short of stunning) and his accuracy, especially into tight windows on quick plays, is excellent. Bridgewater also limits his picks very effectively, with a grand total of 4 last season. Not only does Bridgewater make for a great highlight reel, but he has a consistently high level of play and manages games well. All this is not to say that Bridgewater will enjoy the NFL success of Aaron Rodgers, but rather that that is his ceiling. He promises to be an exciting NFL player, at the least. 

2013 Fantasy Football Winners and Losers

Winners:

Anybody on the Denver Broncos Offense

Before the season started, many fantasy football players questioned how productive any single player on the Denver Broncos offense would be; there are just too many weapons.  Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, and Knowshon Moreno are all superstar-caliber players, and it seemed impossible for them all to provide consistent fantasy performances within the same offense. The remedy for the overcrowded nature of this offense was one we should have seen all along: Peyton Manning.  I guess 5211 yards and 51 touchdowns (plus any stats that he compiles in week 17) was enough to go around.

Defenses Going Against the Giants, Jets, or Jags

The quickest thing to go every week on the waiver wire this year was any defense facing up against the Giants, Jets, or Jags.  The Giant's Eli Manning threw a league high 26 interceptions, while the Jet's Geno Smith was right behind him with 21 interceptions and was also sacked 43 times (third in the league). The Jags dynamic quarterback combo of Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne also never failed to impress, racking up an impressive 20 total interceptions.  Don't be surprised if you find yourself constantly picking up defenses playing any of these three teams next year too.

Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns
Give me one person who thought that Josh Gordon would have more fantasy points than Calvin Johnson after week 16 and I'll give you a liar.  Megatron has had an incredible season, but Gordon's has been just as good if not better, despite playing in one fewer game.  Nine touchdowns and seven games with more than one hundred receiving yards (two with more than two hundred) make for a pretty damn impressive season.  Congrats if you jumped on the bandwagon early; I'm dearly sorry to those of you who passed on this gem of a player.

Top Tier Tight Ends
Receiving tight ends are making a comeback in the NFL, and it is largely thanks to an elite group of a few truly special tight ends.  Included in this remarkable group are the likes of Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Vernon Davis, Julius Thomas, Tony Gonzalez, and Jason Witten (fringe stars include James Cameron, Charles Clay, Greg Olsen, and Antonio Gates). Jimmy Graham has caught an incredible 15 touchdowns, while Vernon Davis has managed 12, Julius Thomas has recorded 11, and Gronk got 4 in just 6.5 games.  The immense consistency of Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten cannot be overlooked either. We may never see a group of tight ends as productive in fantasy terms, so enjoy it while it lasts.

Losers:
Running Backs outside of the Elite
By elite I mean AP, Jamaal Charles, Shady McCoy, and Marshawn Lynch.  Outside of them, this year's running back group has disappointing.  Sure, there have been a few bright spots, like the emergences of Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Knowshon Moreno, and DeMarco Murray as good fantasy producers.  However, first round running backs like C.J. Spiller, Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, and Steven Jackson have failed to perform.  Where did the projected breakout seasons of David Wilson and Lamar Miller go? Why are Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, and Reggie Bush so inconsistent? Why won't the Redskins give Alfred Morris the ball in the red zone? Where is MJD? Sorry to be cliché, but there are so many questions and really so few answers.

Injures
The NFL has a real problem, and it is the injury bug. Injured quarterbacks have included Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, and Tony Romo.  Meanwhile the injury list for running backs is much larger, including Adrian Peterson, C.J. Spiller, Arian Foster, Doug Martin, Steven Jackson, Stevan Ridley, MJD, David Wilson, Darren McFadden, Eddie Lacy, Reggie Bush, and pretty much anybody else that you can name outside of Ryan Mathews (how weird is that).  The list goes on and on for wide receivers and tight ends too, but I'm not going to make you read through another long list of injured players.  All I'll say is that something needs to change in the NFL.

Keeping the Same Defense for the Whole Season
It used to be common to draft a defense pretty high and use them consistently throughout the entire season.  To put it simply, there was a remarkable amount of scoring this year, and not even the best defenses were safe from a horrid performance.  The much more reliable technique has become to rotate defenses weekly based on matchups.  The reality is, not even the best defenses are a good start against a team like the Broncos.

Blair Walsh, K, Minnesota Vikings
Walsh was supposed to be the bee's knees this year, and through the first four games it looked like he was just that.  He had more than eight fantasy points in each of those four games, but it went sharply downhill after that, with consecutive fantasy performances of 4, 0, 7, and 5 points.  He has recovered to a certain extent, but still, we expected more out of Walsh.  The morale of the story is, kickers are about as unpredictable as they come, so don't go about drafting a kicker anywhere near the top/middle of the draft next year.

NFL Award Predictions: Offensive Player of the Year

     Finally, we are down to the three biggest awards to be handed out by the National Football League; Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and the grandaddy of them all, Most Valuable Player. Due to the large number of possible contenders, we will analyze the four best nominees for Offensive Player of the Year. Those nominees are Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Calvin Johnson.

Adrian Peterson

WR Calvin Johnson: After a relatively slow start, Calvin Johnson managed to finish the season strong, even though "strong" is a slight understatement. In the final nine games of the season, Johnson's stat line was absolutely incredible, and thanks to a 225 yard performance in a Week 16 game, Calvin Johnson was able to snap Jerry Rice's receiving yard record. If Johnson successfully eclipsed the 2,000 yard receiving record, he would be a more legitimate candidate for Offensive Player of the Year. However, because Calvin Johnson did not eclipse the 2,000 yard mark, he is not the favorite to win this award.

QB Aaron Rodgers: Even though Aaron Rodgers' stats saw a drop off from his stats in the 2011 season, a league leading 108.0 passer rating and 39 touchdowns keeps him in the competition for the Offensive Player of the Year Award. The Green Bay Packers, along with Aaron Rodgers, got off to a slow start in 2012, but the team as a whole built momentum towards the end of the season. Rodgers was sacked a mind boggling 45 times in 2012, but unfortunately, his fellow competition is too strong for him to win back to back offensive awards.

QB Peyton Manning: We believe Peyton Manning will take home Comeback Player of the Year Award, but the odds are not in his favor for Offensive Player of the Year. Manning's statistics were extremely consistent in 2012, where it appeared that after he adjusted to his new team, Manning became close to unstoppable. Manning not only recovered from a neck injury, but he resurrected a franchise in need of an elite quarterback. Manning makes a strong case for Offensive Player of the Year, but the case in favor of Adrian Peterson is even stronger.

RB Adrian Peterson: After Peterson suffered an ACL tear, many believed this talented running back would never be quite the same rusher as we saw earlier in his career. However, Peterson successfully proved history wrong, rushing for 2,097 yards, 12 touchdowns, and an incredible 6.0 rushing yards per carry. Offensive Player of the Year normally goes to the player with the best statistics, and Adrian Peterson's stat line is the best in the league.

Offensive Player of the Year Prediction: RB Adrian Peterson

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions (Full)

Wild Card Round:
AFC: 3. Texans over 6. Bengals
AFC: 4. Ravens over 5. Colts
NFC: 3. Packers over 6. Vikings
NFC: 5. Seahawks over 4. Redskins

Divisional Round:
AFC: 2. Patriots over 3. Texans
AFC: 1. Broncos over 4. Ravens
NFC: 3. Packers over 2. 49ers
NFC: 5. Seahawks over 1. Falcons (OT)

Championship Round:
AFC: 1. Broncos over 2. Patriots
NFC: 3. Packers over 5. Seahawks

Super Bowl: Secretly, everyone hopes to see Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl after a serious neck injury kept him from playing in 2011. However, the Packers will have momentum after rolling past the 49ers, and then the Seahawks, as they take home their 5th Super Bowl title.

Packers over Broncos 33-20

Fantasy Football: Quarterbacks (Week 8)

David Welker/Getty Images

1. Drew Brees: Even with a BYE week under his belt, Drew Brees, according to ESPN's standard scoring system, has the third most fantasy points as of Week 8. Unlike Rodgers and RGII whom are both ahead of him, Brees has yet to post single digit fantasy points. His average of 24.2 points per game is unprecedented, and with Jimmy Graham returning as a healthy starter, make sure your starting this guy for the next 10 games.
(Stats: 2,097 passing yards, 19 total TDs, 145 fantasy points)

2. Robert Griffin III: After seven weeks of football, there is no longer any dispute of who the better rookie quarterback is after their first season; Andrew Luck or RGIII. Griffin has been extraordinary in fantasy football, making all of his fantasy owners happy each and every Sunday. However, the only reason he did not earn the number one spot over Brees is his injury concern. Like any quarterback who enjoys running from the pocket, there is always a huge fantasy risk for their owners.
(Stats: 1,601 passing yards, 13 total TDs, 158 fantasy points)

3. Aaron Rodgers: Many were somewhat disappointed by Rodgers after flopping in his first three games. Then he picked up from where he left off last season, throwing for six touchdowns against the elite Houston defense. He proved the 38 fantasy point game was no fluke by throwing for three more touchdowns against St. Louis. Rodgers may have started off modestly, but he has finally hit his stride.
(Stats: 1,979 passing yards, 19 total TDs, 155 fantasy points)

4. Tom Brady: Similar to our number one quarterback (Drew Brees), Tom Brady has yet to fall beneath the ten point mark in a specific week. His numbers are not quite off the charts, but consistency is a large part of his fantasy value.
(Stats: 2,104 passing yards, 14 total TDs, 134 fantasy points)

5. Matt Ryan: After a hot start to his 2012 season, Ryan's stats have gradually decreased since Week 4, and his 8 fantasy points last Sunday against Oakland hurts his stock. However, Ryan has one of the most talented receiving corps in the league surrounding him, so a stellar performance against Philly next week would not be a surprise.
(Stats: 1,756 passing yards, 15 total TDs, 118 fantasy points)

Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees?

     Last February, Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers was voted Most Valuable Player of the NFL in a “uninamous” decision. There is no question Rodgers deserved a spot on the ballot, for his MVP-like season may be one of the best in league history. However, Saints quarterback Drew Brees was just as good, if not better. 2012 was labeled as the Year of the Quarterback, and rightfully so when you are dealing with big names such as Tom Brady, Eli Manning and Mathew Stafford. Rodgers may have won the MVP Award, but in no way does that make him better then the Purdue alum. So who is the better quarterback: Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees?
    Three years; that’s how long Rodgers sat on the Packers bench, watching star quarterback Brett Favre calling out plays on the field. Aaron Rodgers was drafted 24th overall out of UCal, and would be Favre’s replacement when needed. His career started off slowly, but things were looking up for the quarterback. Brett Favre was on the wrong side of 30, and later announced he would be retiring (or so we thought) by the end of 2007. When 2008 rolled around, it was Rodgers’ time to shine. In his first year as a starter, Rodgers passed for 4,038 yards and 28 touchdowns. However, the trait that differentiates Rodgers is his mobility. Early on in his career, it was clear to football fans the new quarterback possessed extraordinary speed. Rodgers has evolved his running game so that he can make a spectacular throw off balance, as well as rushing for a few extra yards. The next two seasons of Rodgers’ career were spectacular as well, where he ended up beating Pittsburgh for his first Super Bowl title. Undoubtedly his best year in the NFL came in 2011. The Packers quarterback threw for 4,643 yards, and was just 5 touchdowns away from the touchdown record with 45. His Green Bay Packers earned a 15-1 record, but were dethroned by New York in their first playoff game. Rodgers’ regular season success won him the MVP Award last February, and rightfully so. Taking all of this into account, I still find Aaron Rodgers one of the more overrated quarterbacks in the league. Now don’t get me wrong, Rodgers is clearly an elite passer, but not quite as elite as people think. When comparing Rodgers to Drew Brees, you will notice Rodgers’ receiving corp is dramatically better then that of New Orleans. Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley are all spectacular weapons that allow Rodgers to put up extraordinary statistics. The main reason why I am doubting Rodgers is due to Week 17 of the 2011 season. Green Bay started Matt Flynn in order to rest their star quarterback for the playoffs. Flynn had started in just one other NFL game, yet he was able to throw for 480 yards and 6 touchdowns against Detroit. Had Flynn been dealing with the Saints’ wide receivers, there is no way he could put up the same statistics. Rodgers has exemplified fabulous accuracy in his 4 seasons as a starter, but I am not sure if he is a better quarterback than Drew Brees.
     Brees’ career began as the starting quarterback for the San Diego Chargers back in 2002. Many had doubted Brees due to his problems with injuries in the past, which is why was taken 33rd overall. He may not have been an elite quarterback when he first became a starter, and clearly the Chargers were not satisfied. That is why San Diego traded for NC State passer Philip Rivers. Brees stayed a starter for the rest of 2004, and was later slected to the Pro Bowl team. After one more season spent in San Diego, Brees was signed by the New Orleans Saints. Over time, he was able to improve his game bit by bit, and eventually brought a Super Bowl trophy home to New Orleans. He may not have been succesful in his quest for a second Super Bowl title, but last season statistically was the best of Brees’ career. In 16 games, Drew Brees threw for 5,476 yards (an NFL record), 46 touchdowns and a passer rating of 110.6. The most impressive feature of Drew Brees is his lack of weapons at wide receiver, even though the Saints quarterback manages to put up great staistics. Brees has spectacular accuracy (.71 completion percentage) which allows him to hit the smallest of targets. He may not have the same speed as Rodgers, but Brees definitely has the capability of escaping pass rushers. Overall, Brees has experience, arm strength, and awareness on the football field, the main reason why he has been so successful in the league.

     Both quarterbacks are basically equal when it comes to statistics, but in the end, I would rather have Drew Brees on my opening day roster than Aaron Rodgers.

Aaron Rodgers Overall: 97.5

Drew Brees Overall: 98