College Football Storylines: Pac 12

Over the next couple of weeks, I will be going conference by conference to give you, dear reader, some collegiate material to chew on before this upcoming season. These are a few things in the Pac 12 that I think are important to note and watch for, in no particular order.

Oregon's offense: Marcus Mariota's Heisman campaign is officially underway, and with nine returning starters on offense we can again count on an absolutely prolific offensive showing from Oregon this year. Out of the backfield, it seems like we are constantly talking about Oregon running backs and their astonishing penchant for 200 yd games. This year, they are without Kenjon Barner from a couple of years ago and De'Anthony Thomas now a Kansas City Chief, but make no mistake. There are several men on this football team who are capable of making exactly the same impact as those two. The most obvious candidate to fill those ridiculously fast and agile shoes would be Byron Marshall. In his third season, he will be vying for the starting spot for the first time as a Duck, but last year proved himself more than capable, with over 1,000 yds rushed and 5 consecutive 100 yd games. That in particular suggests that he can play every Saturday. Another player to watch in Eugene this year is Thomas Tyner, the sophomore who in his debut season last year seemed to get better game by game. He averaged 6.2 yds per carry, scored nine touchdowns, and had a highlight reel 66 run against Washington St. to make a statement. Of course, the last two running backs for the Ducks were the rare sort of players that make an impact regardless of the opponent, but defensive coordinators of the Pac 12 might be forced to admit grudgingly that that sort of one-two combo might be the case again for Oregon. If it is, count on their averaging well north of 40 points per game, as last year's 45.5 would suggest. This should be as fun as it has always been.

Marcus Mariota will lead the Ducks to a probable playoff spot.

UCLA? The Pac 12 championship game is a relatively recent development, and so it's not outrageous that no team but Stanford and Oregon has ever won it. Still, because both of the best Pac 12 teams play in the North division, they cannot meet in the final, and so the rest of the conference is ensured a spot in the game. Coming out of the Pac 12 South, the obvious frontrunner to beat either one in the championship game would be UCLA, led by Brett Hundley. This team has top 10 potential this year according to many. I myself cannot bring myself to agree with that, simply because they have yet to prove themselves against a quality opponent. Last season, UCLA was the flavor of the week... for about a month. By week 8, they had climbed all the way to ninth in the AP top 25, an impressive feat of course for a team not traditionally up there. Everyone was talking about them as a national contender, but after two prompt losses to Stanford and Oregon, 24-10 and 42-14, respectively, they fell out of the spotlight. Until they start winning those sorts of games against top 10 opponents, they are not a true top 10 team. Still, watch for them to build on an overall strong season last year, a 9-3 bid that ended with a good bowl win over Virginia Tech. This team is trending the right way. Also remember the name Miles Jack, a sophomore linebacker and at times running back who will undoubtedly be on sportscenter at one point this season.

Brett Hundley can make a good run at the Heisman this year.

Some random notes, and teams to watch for:
Arizona St. lost 27 seniors last season, by far the most in the conference, so expect them to have an off year to rebuild. They are coming off a great season where it was in fact they who represented the south in the conference championship game, but won't be able to repeat that feat... Cal's defense can't get any worse...can it? Last season they allowed 529.6 yards per game and almost 46 points. That is of course the type of season that loses defensive coordinators their job, and the new Art Kauffman looks to turn things around on that side of the ball for the Golden Bears, who will also appreciate the return of a couple key players. These include defensive end Brennan Scarlett who has missed 17 months and tackle Mustafa Jalil. Those two, plus several junior college prospects, should mean a much improved defensive showing this season. Speaking of which, Oregon's defense will take a step back this year. Last year they were in fact extremely underrated, but with only five returning starters they will not be the same solid front they were last year. There are a couple of question marks here, but mainly up front as they wave goodbye to Wade Keliikipi, Taylor Hart and Ricky Heimuli, all of whom were important parts of a strong defensive unit... Washington is another team on the rise, coming off a respectable 9-4 season. The Huskies, seemingly out of nowhere, gave Stanford a hard time with a 31-28 loss, Oregon a decent 45-24 showing, and UCLA a great game at 41-31. Of course they aren't a great team until we start talking about great wins, but still these testify to the strength of an up and coming team. Watch the Huskies this year. There is something of a question mark at quarterback, and they have a new head coach, but with a solid core of 14 returning starters they can do as well as they did last season or better.

And some predictions:
Heisman watch list: Oregon's Marcus Mariota, UCLA's Brett Hundley, Washington's Cyler Miles, Stanford's Kevin Hogan, UCLA's LB/RB Miles Jack, Arizona State's Taylor Kelly
Sleeper pick: Washington
Conference champion: Oregon

Game Recap: (4) UCLA vs. (1) Florida

There is no doubt in my mind that UCLA's Kyle Anderson was the best player in this game.  However, as is generally the case, Florida won because they were the better overall team.  There was not a single player on Florida that didn't have an impact when they were in the game, but undoubtedly the most impressive performance from Florida was that of Scottie Wilbekin down the stretch.  Wilbekin made several impossible shots to seal the game for the Gators, including an outrageous banked jump shot over a much taller defender to put them up seven with just 2:38 left.  Though this contest was much closer than the score would indicate, Florida will be enthused by the result over a UCLA team that I believe had one of the most talented rosters in the whole tournament.

Five College Football Games to Watch (Week 9)

Week 9 will see one great game in particular, but you'd be surprised at some other nice looking match ups I have found here. In order of must watch to will probably be a good game, here are 5 bouts that I'll be tuned to this weekend. At the very least I'll catch post game coverage, with highlights. My motto with regards to making predictions? Fortune favors the bold. 

#12 UCLA at #2 Oregon:  I am really impressed with the team head coach Jim Mora has put together in sunny Los Angeles. The Bruins started this year ranked 21st, but have shown that they are not to be messed with. They hung in there with 8 Stanford (a 14 point loss at Stanford), and with a sophomore stud QB in Brett Hundley and 3 freshman starting on the offensive line, they will be a team to watch in the next couple of years. All this being said, you know what's coming here. In the only real challenge they have faced all year, the Ducks beat then 15 Washington 45-24. This is a team averaging 57.6 points per game. Oregon takes this one, and it won't be close. It'll be pretty though, as Mariota will pass for at least 400 yards, putting on an offensive clinic. UCLA defense is allowing an average 250 yards per game against through the air, and 165 yards on the ground. Both of those numbers are about to change drastically. Mariota will step up big (with that much needed "Heisman moment" in the back of his mind) and drop at least 45 on the Bruins defense (19th in the country with a 19.2 points against average). I see him running for at least 1 TD and passing for at least 3. The Ducks defense will pressure UCLA's very young offensive line, and it will be Oregon 46 UCLA 17.

#20 South Carolina at #5 Missouri: This is not the most likely upset this week, but it'll be pretty darn close.  A win against the Gamecocks would be huge this week for the Tigers, who are ready to pounce on a berth in the SEC title game. South Carolina is coming off a horrendous loss to Tennessee last week, but I don't see them rolling over. Sophomore RB Mike Davis (5'9" 215 lbs, which I just find awesome) will have a day for himself, as dazzling young running backs tend to enjoy doing, and South Carolina's defense will be better equipped to deal with red shirt freshman Maty Mauk than 22 Florida was last week. In his first career start, Mauk put many doubts to rest with a 36-17 victory against a good Gators squad, but this week I see the SC defense showing a little more spine. Ultimately Mauk will have a second good start in homecoming at the 'Zou, the Conner Shaw-less Gamecocks will fall short late, and I go Mizzou 23 South Carolina 20.

Penn St. at #4 Ohio St: My big upset pick this week. OSU is coming off 2 mediocre wins, and so many good teams have lost this year after close wins the week before. Then 5 Stanford fell to Utah, 7 Georgia lost to a 25 Missouri, an unranked Texas team beat then 12 Oklahoma, #6 LSU fell to the unranked Rebels, #7 A&M lost to #24 Auburn, the list goes on, and on, and on. What is the point of this, besides to demonstrate my ridiculous command of college football statistics? These games illustrate my favorite aspect of college football, upsets. Emotions run high, the season is a grind, and every once in a while (or every week, it seems) a "bad" team beats a "great" one. That's a wonderful part of the game at this level, whether you attribute it to younger men, playing for your school, or a flawed ranking system, it happens. Enter the Nittany Lions. Vegas doesn't think this will be close, but the Lions are coming off a 4 OT win against Michigan two weeks ago, and a bye week. OSU can only escape fate so many times and were just saved by RB Carlos Hyde last week, but Penn St. defense has been stout against the run this year, allowing an average 117 yds per game on the ground. True freshman Christian Hackenburg is leading the Big 10 with close to 300 yards per game. Urban Meyer can kiss his unblemished record goodbye. Penn St. 24 OSU 17

#10 Texas Tech at #17 Oklahoma: A great opportunity for Texas Tech to prove its legitimacy against a quality opponent. The Sooners are 7-1 in their last 8 meetings, but Texas Tech is 7-0 this season, and 5-2 against the spread (Oklahoma -7 in this one at home, incidentally.) Every year under Bob Stoops, the Sooners look like national title contenders until they drop a game in which they are big favorites. This year, that game was another great installment in the great Red River rivalry, against an unranked Longhorns squad. However, once they get the loss out of they way they usually play some terrific football. While the Raider defense has allowed just 18.7 points per game this season, that average is against a schedule of relatively little manliness. I see a shootout, Oklahoma 43 Texas Tech 35. 

North Carolina St. at #2 Florida St: Now this won't be a great game, by any stretch. Winston at home will take care of business handily against the Wolfpack, but I'll be checking this game out for one reason. The Ducks and the Seminoles are going to be battling for the #2 spot all season long, and chances are neither of them loses for the remainder of the season. I was so happy when the Seminoles were bumped up, not because I am a fan but because, finally, the BCS changed it up even though the #2 team did not lose. This is rare, but fair, as we can safely say FSU had a big day against Clemson. What we got here was clearly a declaration that either of these teams, whichever one outplays the other, will win the right to a national championship berth vs Alabama. This ensures that every remaining game for FSU and Oregon will be interesting, as each week brings an opportunity to punch the ticket. Meanwhile, I hope every week those rankings change. This week, I see FSU beating the Wolfpack, but the Ducks beating a much better Bruins team. After FSU 38 NCST 17, Oregon will move into the #2 spot. It's going to be a great final stretch of the season to see these two battle it out, and if neither squad loses, may the best man (with the best wins) win.