College Football Conference Power Rankings

It may seem out of place to start talking about college football in early July, I'll grant. But with the NBA and NHL playoffs in the books and what looks to be a profoundly depressing second half for the Red Sox, I find myself inexplicably drawn to that tab at the top of the ESPN home page. Yes, NCAAF is less than two months away! I'll be posting with more regularity as thing heat up, about specific teams and specific story lines, but for starters it seems fitting to give an overview of the conferences this year. I've ranked them below.

The PAC 12: Call me a homer, but I have gone and unseated the SEC as my top conference. This is probably because defense is harder to measure, and the SEC is a defensive conference, so at a cursory glance (mine) the PAC 12 just looks way sexier. Seriously though, the offensive hijinks coming to us from the west coast this year should be nothing short of spectacular, as we have come to expect. Marcus Mariota (I know!) is coming off a remarkable run at a Heisman for a freshman, and the Ducks offense looks to dazzle. They are also looking to unseat a Stanford team that has now repeated as PAC 12 champs. Oregon playing Stanford at home on November 1 is already a game to keep in mind. Other fascinating material from this conference to keep an eye on is a finally legit Oregon State team, a Lane Kiffin-less USC, and Washington and UCLA (with Brett Hundley returning), both teams that are finally coming into their own. Don't forget about Arizona State either. There's simply a lot of great football to be played here, after a conference record 9 teams qualified for bowls. That's a great conference, from top to bottom.

Marcus Mariota didn't go anywhere

The SEC: I'm a little turned off on the SEC this year. I can name five great quarterbacks who graduated last year. AJ McCarron from Alabama, Aaron Murray from Georgia, Zach Mettenberger from LSU, Conner Shaw from South Carolina, and of course Johnny Manziel from Texas A&M. An SEC without quarterbacks (Nick Marshall will probably be the best quarterback in the conference next year, which is frankly kinda lame) is like ordering Moose Tracks ice cream and finding out there's no reese's cups in there. (This actually happened to me once- no further comment) It can still be enjoyable of course, but there's something missing, and that something proves to be an essential element. A great athletic quarterback provides the sole source of unpredictability, and frankly makes a game fun to watch. Defense has always ruled in the SEC, but now that will be exaggerated to such an extent that I can already predict a solid 12-3 win for the Crimson Tide over LSU this year. (Just for the record, definitely not a prediction. I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.) So honestly I can't think of a single game that I am already looking forward to. Of course the Iron Bowl will be timeless, Alabama-LSU, but in all honestly none of those excite me like several teams and games in the PAC 12 do. There you have it. A strong conference but not a fun one. Now I know you'll say I'm not ranking "fun to watch," I'm ranking strength of the teams, but I see the PAC 12 as simply better this year. I'm not saying there won't be the usual contingent of scary top ten SEC teams, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if we had a national champion from outside the SEC this year. In fact the opposite is true, (I would be surprised, for those of you following at home) so I do predict now that the coaches' trophy will remain out of the conference.

Nick Marshall may be good, but he shouldn't be the best in your conference. 

The Big 12: Now besides a beautiful victory by the Sooners over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl that rang resoundingly with a certain poetic justice, the Big 12 didn't fare all that well in bowls last season. An ugly loss by what was previously a very exciting Baylor team was disappointing to everyone but Blake Bortles and his girlfriend, as well as losses from Texas and Oklahoma State. But all those teams, as well as a Texas Tech team that was lots of fun last year, are teams to watch this season. This conference might be my favorite in terms of rivalries, (Red River, for starters) but it does lack that elite level team, the Oregon or Alabama, and that is a knock against it for sure. Keep an eye out for Bryce Petty as well, on sports center top 10s and Heisman watch lists. You heard it here first. Ok definitely not first, but he'll flirt with video game numbers this year, like that entire Bear offense always does.

The ACC: First, let me pause. Thank you, Jameis. You might behave questionably off the field. Then again, you might not, which I guess is sort of the point. But you gave us one of the most poignantly simultaneously quotable and not quotable moments in the history of sports. I myself have brought this up on many an occasion, from a pick up soccer game to an argument about the academic standards for collegiate athletes. "And I said, we strong? And he said, we strong if you strong. *pause* We strong."  Even that's iffy, but I am fairly sure we got the point. (The pause there is my favorite part.) Anyways of course the important point is that this conference took the coaches' trophy out of the SEC for the first time in seven years. I don't say this because I hate the SEC, but simply because it is worth noting and testifies to the strength of the conference. Depth is what's missing here, but Duke looked strong (sorry, I had to) out of nowhere, BC gave some teams some good tough games, and of course the perennially relevant Clemson Tigers and Miami are a big plus. Louisville sans Teddy Bridgewater will take a step back, but they are headed in the right direction, as is this entire conference. Also keep in mind that Notre Dame's non football teams have moved into the ACC officially now, and for many (not all) intents and purposes their football team has as well, so that'll be fun.

The Big 10: Here, I am a homer. A huge Notre Dame fan, I relish on some level dumping Michigan last on a list, even though I know it's not just Michigan and I know they're fifth on the list, and many other conferences would be happy to be here. Still. That was fun. I do have some legitimacy here though. The Big 10 had a losing bowl record for the fourth straight season, at 2-5, which is the worst for any automatic BCS qualifying conference by a good margin. This is a conference that is not doing well, and besides a Michigan State upset over Stanford in the Rose bowl, a good ground out 24-20 win what was fun to watch, there weren't many highlights for these guys last year. Ohio State will be a good team of course with Braxton Miller, and I'm not burying the conference as whole, (Michigan Ohio State will always be great, though they won't top last year's obscenities) but the level of play and the caliber of team has declined considerably. Here's hoping they ramp it back up, so that they can be mentioned in the same breath as the PAC 12 and the SEC, just like the good old days.

Five College Football Games to Watch (Week 9)

Week 9 will see one great game in particular, but you'd be surprised at some other nice looking match ups I have found here. In order of must watch to will probably be a good game, here are 5 bouts that I'll be tuned to this weekend. At the very least I'll catch post game coverage, with highlights. My motto with regards to making predictions? Fortune favors the bold. 

#12 UCLA at #2 Oregon:  I am really impressed with the team head coach Jim Mora has put together in sunny Los Angeles. The Bruins started this year ranked 21st, but have shown that they are not to be messed with. They hung in there with 8 Stanford (a 14 point loss at Stanford), and with a sophomore stud QB in Brett Hundley and 3 freshman starting on the offensive line, they will be a team to watch in the next couple of years. All this being said, you know what's coming here. In the only real challenge they have faced all year, the Ducks beat then 15 Washington 45-24. This is a team averaging 57.6 points per game. Oregon takes this one, and it won't be close. It'll be pretty though, as Mariota will pass for at least 400 yards, putting on an offensive clinic. UCLA defense is allowing an average 250 yards per game against through the air, and 165 yards on the ground. Both of those numbers are about to change drastically. Mariota will step up big (with that much needed "Heisman moment" in the back of his mind) and drop at least 45 on the Bruins defense (19th in the country with a 19.2 points against average). I see him running for at least 1 TD and passing for at least 3. The Ducks defense will pressure UCLA's very young offensive line, and it will be Oregon 46 UCLA 17.

#20 South Carolina at #5 Missouri: This is not the most likely upset this week, but it'll be pretty darn close.  A win against the Gamecocks would be huge this week for the Tigers, who are ready to pounce on a berth in the SEC title game. South Carolina is coming off a horrendous loss to Tennessee last week, but I don't see them rolling over. Sophomore RB Mike Davis (5'9" 215 lbs, which I just find awesome) will have a day for himself, as dazzling young running backs tend to enjoy doing, and South Carolina's defense will be better equipped to deal with red shirt freshman Maty Mauk than 22 Florida was last week. In his first career start, Mauk put many doubts to rest with a 36-17 victory against a good Gators squad, but this week I see the SC defense showing a little more spine. Ultimately Mauk will have a second good start in homecoming at the 'Zou, the Conner Shaw-less Gamecocks will fall short late, and I go Mizzou 23 South Carolina 20.

Penn St. at #4 Ohio St: My big upset pick this week. OSU is coming off 2 mediocre wins, and so many good teams have lost this year after close wins the week before. Then 5 Stanford fell to Utah, 7 Georgia lost to a 25 Missouri, an unranked Texas team beat then 12 Oklahoma, #6 LSU fell to the unranked Rebels, #7 A&M lost to #24 Auburn, the list goes on, and on, and on. What is the point of this, besides to demonstrate my ridiculous command of college football statistics? These games illustrate my favorite aspect of college football, upsets. Emotions run high, the season is a grind, and every once in a while (or every week, it seems) a "bad" team beats a "great" one. That's a wonderful part of the game at this level, whether you attribute it to younger men, playing for your school, or a flawed ranking system, it happens. Enter the Nittany Lions. Vegas doesn't think this will be close, but the Lions are coming off a 4 OT win against Michigan two weeks ago, and a bye week. OSU can only escape fate so many times and were just saved by RB Carlos Hyde last week, but Penn St. defense has been stout against the run this year, allowing an average 117 yds per game on the ground. True freshman Christian Hackenburg is leading the Big 10 with close to 300 yards per game. Urban Meyer can kiss his unblemished record goodbye. Penn St. 24 OSU 17

#10 Texas Tech at #17 Oklahoma: A great opportunity for Texas Tech to prove its legitimacy against a quality opponent. The Sooners are 7-1 in their last 8 meetings, but Texas Tech is 7-0 this season, and 5-2 against the spread (Oklahoma -7 in this one at home, incidentally.) Every year under Bob Stoops, the Sooners look like national title contenders until they drop a game in which they are big favorites. This year, that game was another great installment in the great Red River rivalry, against an unranked Longhorns squad. However, once they get the loss out of they way they usually play some terrific football. While the Raider defense has allowed just 18.7 points per game this season, that average is against a schedule of relatively little manliness. I see a shootout, Oklahoma 43 Texas Tech 35. 

North Carolina St. at #2 Florida St: Now this won't be a great game, by any stretch. Winston at home will take care of business handily against the Wolfpack, but I'll be checking this game out for one reason. The Ducks and the Seminoles are going to be battling for the #2 spot all season long, and chances are neither of them loses for the remainder of the season. I was so happy when the Seminoles were bumped up, not because I am a fan but because, finally, the BCS changed it up even though the #2 team did not lose. This is rare, but fair, as we can safely say FSU had a big day against Clemson. What we got here was clearly a declaration that either of these teams, whichever one outplays the other, will win the right to a national championship berth vs Alabama. This ensures that every remaining game for FSU and Oregon will be interesting, as each week brings an opportunity to punch the ticket. Meanwhile, I hope every week those rankings change. This week, I see FSU beating the Wolfpack, but the Ducks beating a much better Bruins team. After FSU 38 NCST 17, Oregon will move into the #2 spot. It's going to be a great final stretch of the season to see these two battle it out, and if neither squad loses, may the best man (with the best wins) win.