2016 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Predictions

Chiefs at Patriots (Saturday, 4:35 ET): While the Patriots may not have ended the season how they would have liked, the bye week gave players like Rob Gronkowski, Sebastian Vollmer, Julian Edelman, and Tom Brady additional time to heal from their respective injuries. The Chandler Jones saga that unfolded this past week may have served as a major distraction, but if there's any team capable of winning amidst a controversy, it's the New England Patriots. The Chiefs have to deal with injuries of their own, where Jeremly Maclin, Tamba Hali, and Justin Houston are all questionable and may not be full strength if they end up playing. Under Tom Brady, the Patriots are 14-3 at home in the playoffs, and while the Chiefs have an outstanding pass rush capable of causing trouble for this weak Pats offensive line, I predict the Pats to return to their winning ways.
Patriots over Chiefs 27-17

Packers at Cardinals (Saturday, 8:15 ET): This team played each other in Arizona just three weeks ago, a game where the Cardinals dominated against Rodgers and the Packers in a 38-8 victory. The Cardinals recorded nine total sacks that game, even without their star safety Tyrann Mathieu. Offensively, the Cardinals will rely on Carson Palmer and the passing game, who has a career passer rating of 66.5 in his two playoff games (both losses). This number is very different from Rodgers' career passer rating of 100.3 in his 13 career playoff games, yet this year Packers team is very different from the offensive powerhouses of the past. This game will be much closer than the Week 16 blowout, but Arizona will still find a way to win.
Cardinals over Packers 31-23

Seahawks at Panthers (Sunday, 1:05 ET): The Seahawks honestly have no business playing in this divisional round after Minnesota kicker Blair Walsh missed a chip shot for the win. Yet despite a close game one week earlier in frigid Minnesota weather, I still love the Seahawks to beat the Panthers in Carolina. Marshawn Lynch is "ready" for Carolina tomorrow, which is good for the Seahawks offense since it will be difficult to throw the ball with tomorrow's poor weather conditions. Cam Newton has thrown 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in his three career playoff games, and even though the Panthers beat the Seahawks in Seattle this past October, that was before the Seahawks caught fire later in the season.
Seahawks over Panthers 20-17

Seahawks list Marshawn Lynch as probable against Panthers: https://t.co/dXPMciefJt

— AP NFL (@AP_NFL) January 16, 2016

Steelers at Broncos (Sunday, 4:40 ET): The chances of the Steelers beating the Broncos in Denver are decreasing by the day, where receiver Antonio Brown and running back DeAngelo Williams have both been ruled out for Sunday's game. Even star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is far from full strength, but if there's any quarterback capable of winning a playoff game with a plethora of injuries, it's Big Ben. Peyton Manning for the Broncos likely won't have to carry his team through the playoffs this year thanks to a decent run game and outstanding defense, especially since he his 0-5 in the playoffs when the temperature dips below 40 degrees. If the Steelers were healthy, Pittsburgh would be the pick to win; however, Pittsburgh has too many injuries on offense to win this game.
Broncos over Steelers 21-10

Gronk will play tomorrow. He'll be limited, but he'll play.

— Jeff Howe (@jeffphowe) January 16, 2016

Chiefs feel good about Justin Houston and Tamba Hali for today. Jeremy Maclin's status not as clear. Might be a stretch for him. We'll see

— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) January 16, 2016

Getting ready for football. Three hours until #KCvsNE. https://t.co/QS47NnDz68

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 16, 2016

Packers are 5-1 as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed with Aaron Rodgers as QB

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 16, 2016

Peyton Manning has gone “one-&-done” in playoffs 9 times, 5 more than any other QB in Super Bowl era (since 1966).

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 15, 2016

Peyton Manning is 0-5 when kickoff temps are 40 degrees or below. Sunday's Denver forecast: 36 high, 21 low. pic.twitter.com/SZoo0es4tL

— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) January 16, 2016

WR Antonio Brown has been ruled out for Sunday's game in Denver. MORE: https://t.co/YczMIPd4y8

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) January 15, 2016

2015-2016 Fantasy Football Love/Hate

I know it's been a while. You may not even remember me anymore. My name is Gabe Schmittlein. I'm back. Matthew Berry just came out with his Fantasy Football Love/Hate article for the upcoming season and I was inspired to give all the dedicated readers of the NFL Report my own view on the landscape of fantasy football. So -- Matthew Berry, my muse -- this one's for you.

Love:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers and Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts --

Rodgers and Luck can be looped in together because they are far-and-away the top two fantasy options at quarterback this year. Brady is suspended/not-suspended/who-the-hell-knows, Peyton Manning's arm strength is right down there with the Mark Sanchez's of the world (that's not good), and Drew Brees has a receiving core made up of guys who are not Jimmy Graham. Mid-level options behind Rodgers and Luck are there, but even guys like Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matthew Stafford represent steep drop-offs in value from Rodgers and Luck and don't represent extraordinarily higher values than their late draft quarterback counterparts like Ryan Tannehill or Sam Bradford. The first few rounds of fantasy football drafts are all about maximizing value in positions where value can be most effectively maximized (if ya see what I mean)... For example, running backs are often drafted so high because there tends to be a sharp drop-off in fantasy quality, while receivers are drafted lower because the difference between the 1st and 20th best receiver is marginal when compared to the difference between the 1st and 20th best running backs. So take Rodgers and Luck. Or Don't. But don't be a sucker and take Peyton Manning in the second round.

Wide Receivers in the Second/Third Round --

Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green. Alshon Jefferey. T.Y. Hilton. With the usual high splurge on running backs, those are all the wide receivers that could be available in rounds two and three. Picking up most of those guys in the second round would represent a good value and getting any of them in the third round would be incredible. Be aware that there is a decently sharp drop-off after these wideouts, so you don't want to be the one guy in your league to go quarterback in the second round (don't. pick. manning.) and have to draft after all of these guys are gone.

Jeremy Maclin --

He's going way way way too low right now. Maclin thrived last season with Mark Sanchez at the helm, and I don't see Alex Smith being a huge downgrade from him. Sure, Chip Kelly's scheme played a part, but Maclin was great under Andy Reid when he was in Philly too. Matthew Berry said that Maclin was going in the eighth round in most ESPN leagues, down with Mike Wallace, Jarvis Landry, and Allen Robinson. Ridiculous is what that is. Hey, if you can get Maclin in the eighth round, that represents awesome value, but I'd even be happy if you took him as early as the fifth or sixth round. Pro-tip - if you're playing with a bunch of guys on auto draft, he'll likely fall right into your hands in the eighth round, so at least there's some good news with him being ranked as low as he is.

Hate

Tight Ends Not Name Gronkowski or Graham --

Ugh. See Rodgers and Luck paragraph above. Or I'll just type it out in a slightly different way down here... Gronkowski and Graham represent a massive value gap between them and the rest of their position, so I'm fine with either of them in the first couple rounds. However, guys like Travis Kelce, Greg Olson, and Julius Thomas that are being drafted around the fifth round don't seem to be providing a maximized value over a tight end that you could be drafting in the tenth round (Zach Ertz is totally gonna get it going this year!!). On the other hand, the difference between a wide receiver/running back in the fifth round and the tenth round is going to be huge.

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions --

The Abdullah hype train has been very real the past couple weeks, but I struggle to see where his value is going to come. He's not going to get many touchdowns, as Joique Bell is one of the more accomplished goal line backs in the league, and he's not going to get as many touches as you'd hope, once again because of the aforementioned Joique Bell. I guess he provides some value as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but it isn't enough to warrant the sixth round (about) draft slot that he's been getting in most leagues. I do like Abdullah in the long term, but it's going to take time for him to win carries away from Bell, who I actually think is being drafted too low right now.

Defenses and Kickers --

Matthew Berry said this in his Love/Hate article, but I believe I said it in my Love/Hate article prior to last season, so if anything he's copying me. Please please please don't draft a defense or a kicker before the last couple rounds. Berry listed a whole catalog of people who he hates more than those who draft defenses and kickers in the first ten rounds, and it was all very cute. I'll say this, though, (and I mean it for real) I hate those sort of people more than I hate cleaning off the inside of peanut butter containers so they can go in the recycling. Sorry to one-up you Berry, but I hope you understand that I don't mean any harm because we're fighting on the same side. The opportunity for maximizing value in positions where value can most effectively be maximized is almost negligible when talking about defenses and kickers. In terms of defenses, it makes much more sense statistically to just pick up a defense that has an easy matchup every week, while for kickers, our ability to predict their year-to-year success is really really poor so you're better off (once again) keeping your eye on the waiver wire.

Super Bowl XLIX Pump Up Videos

With Super Bowl XLIX just hours away, we have combined the best arrangement of Super Bowl pump up videos into one post. These videos range from quarterback Tom Brady's career in the NFL, to a recap of the Seahawks' season synced to "Uptown Funk." Enjoy, and hear's to an exciting Super Bowl!

Top 5 Fantasy Tight Ends

It's been a while since my last installment of this series, but I'm back, and so is the age of the receiving tight end.  This renaissance has largely been sparked by two of the best tight ends that the NFL has every seen: Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.  Though these two are the centerpiece of what the NFL has to offer, there is certainly a solid supporting cast including Julius Thomas, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten, Jordan Cameron, Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen, and Tony Gonzalez.

1. Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints
This former University of Miami basketball player has blossomed into a truly incredible tight end.  With enough speed to outrun linebackers and safeties, and the strength to overpower smaller cornerbacks, Graham is a mismatch for any defender.  With eleven touchdowns already this year, he is primed to rival, if not overtake Rob Gronkowski's record 17 touchdown catches in 2011.  In addition to averaging over a touchdown per game, Graham has also posted more than one hundred yards in already six of the ten games that he's played.  Simply put, Graham is undoubtedly the number one receiving tight end in the league right now.

2. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
Despite being injured for the first six weeks of the season, Gronk is only 15th in terms of fantasy points for tight ends.  This is a testament to how incredibly he has played in the last three weeks, compiling 292 yards and three touchdowns.  Even in the two weeks before that, when he was still partially injured, Gronk managed and impressive 141 yards.  With Tom Brady at quarterback, Gronkowski's numbers should only improve with his health, especially with the lack of other options in the Patriot's passing game.

3. Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos,
Thomas, another former basketball player, came out of nowhere this year and has established himself as Peyton Manning's favorite red zone target.  Averaging just under one touchdown per game, Thomas is a very consistent option, for even when he doesn't manage to compile a lot of yards, he usually manages to reward fantasy owners with a touchdown.  It is by no means a coincidence that the top three tight ends on this list belong to the top three quarterbacks in the NFL: Brees, Brady, and Manning.  In years to come, with Manning at the helm, Thomas could develop into a tight end that could challenge the currently untouchable combo of Graham and Gronkowski at the top of this list.

4. Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers
What has really hurt Davis this year is the inconsistent quarterback play from Colin Kaepernick.  When Kaepernick has performed, though, Davis has performed too.  Like Julius Thomas, Davis is averaging just under one touchdown per game.  Also like Thomas, more than once, touchdowns have concealed games that would otherwise be considered very poor for Davis.  This is not too take anything away from his great season, but it just outlines the fact that if his touchdown production stops, Davis could be in a fair bit of trouble, especially with the up-and-down quarterback play of Colin Kaepernick.

5. Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers
I know it, you're surprised, but you shouldn't be. I could have picked so many players for this final spot, and I chose Greg Olsen, but when you look at all the other players I could have picked, they all have obvious flaws, and Olsen doesn't.  For example, Jordan Cameron has to deal with the horrible quarterback play of Brandon Weeden, while Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten have to compete for targets among talented receiving cores, and Antonio Gates is simply not the player he was five years ago.  Greg Olsen has a talented quarterback, is the Panther's only real red zone threat, and is only 28 years old.  The results have showed too, as Olsen has four touchdowns in his last five games.

Week 8 Predictions

Game to Watch: Redskins @ Broncos: The Denver Broncos were handed their first loss of 2013 season by the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football, and now they have a chance to redeem themselves this week at home against Washington. The Washington Redskins (soon to be the Washington Bravehearts??) are 2-5, and a key factor of Washington's poor play is that quarterback Robert Griffin III does not look the same since his injury in the 2012 NFL Playoffs. Luckily for Redskins fans, RGIII is coming off of a dominant performance in Week 7, as  Washington's offense scored 45 points in a win over the Bears. The Denver Broncos incredible offense will create problems for Washington's struggling defense, as this game is sure to be high scoring.
Broncos over Redskins 34-23

Stand Out Performance: RB Jamaal Charles: The Kansas City Chiefs are 7-0, as they look to be 8-0 for the first time since 2003. The success of the Chief's offense relies heavily on running back Jamaal Charles, who is just one rushing touchdown away from tying his career high . At this rate, Charles is on pace to rush for 1,280 yards with 14 rushing touchdowns in 2013. Tomorrow, Charles and the Chiefs will play the Cleveland Browns, a defense that has struggled to stop the run. Charles is going to make his fantasy owners very happy with this Sunday's performance.
RB Jamaal Charles: 120 yards, 2 total TDs

Player to Watch: TE Rob Gronkowski: The New England Patriots have been missing a healthy Rob Gronkowski from their lineup for almost a full year. Gronk made his return last week against the New York Jets, as he recorded 114 receiving yards in an overtime loss to the Jets. The Patriots will try to successfully incorporate Gronkowski into their lineup so that the Patriots may return to their winning form. Once Belicheck and the coaching staff are able to figure out their plans with Gronk, the Patriots offense has the potential to be one of the best in the league once again.
TE Rob Gronkowski: 105 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

Week 8 Predictions:

Panthers over Buccaneers

49ers over Jaguars

Chiefs over Browns

Patriots over Dolphins

Lions over Cowboys

Saints over Bills

Eagles over Giants

Bengals over Jets

Steelers over Raiders

Cardinals over Falcons

Broncos over Redskins

Packers over Vikings

Seahawks over Rams

Last Week: 9-6

2013 Season: 71-35 (66.9%)