2015-2016 Fantasy Football Love/Hate

I know it's been a while. You may not even remember me anymore. My name is Gabe Schmittlein. I'm back. Matthew Berry just came out with his Fantasy Football Love/Hate article for the upcoming season and I was inspired to give all the dedicated readers of the NFL Report my own view on the landscape of fantasy football. So -- Matthew Berry, my muse -- this one's for you.

Love:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers and Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts --

Rodgers and Luck can be looped in together because they are far-and-away the top two fantasy options at quarterback this year. Brady is suspended/not-suspended/who-the-hell-knows, Peyton Manning's arm strength is right down there with the Mark Sanchez's of the world (that's not good), and Drew Brees has a receiving core made up of guys who are not Jimmy Graham. Mid-level options behind Rodgers and Luck are there, but even guys like Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matthew Stafford represent steep drop-offs in value from Rodgers and Luck and don't represent extraordinarily higher values than their late draft quarterback counterparts like Ryan Tannehill or Sam Bradford. The first few rounds of fantasy football drafts are all about maximizing value in positions where value can be most effectively maximized (if ya see what I mean)... For example, running backs are often drafted so high because there tends to be a sharp drop-off in fantasy quality, while receivers are drafted lower because the difference between the 1st and 20th best receiver is marginal when compared to the difference between the 1st and 20th best running backs. So take Rodgers and Luck. Or Don't. But don't be a sucker and take Peyton Manning in the second round.

Wide Receivers in the Second/Third Round --

Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green. Alshon Jefferey. T.Y. Hilton. With the usual high splurge on running backs, those are all the wide receivers that could be available in rounds two and three. Picking up most of those guys in the second round would represent a good value and getting any of them in the third round would be incredible. Be aware that there is a decently sharp drop-off after these wideouts, so you don't want to be the one guy in your league to go quarterback in the second round (don't. pick. manning.) and have to draft after all of these guys are gone.

Jeremy Maclin --

He's going way way way too low right now. Maclin thrived last season with Mark Sanchez at the helm, and I don't see Alex Smith being a huge downgrade from him. Sure, Chip Kelly's scheme played a part, but Maclin was great under Andy Reid when he was in Philly too. Matthew Berry said that Maclin was going in the eighth round in most ESPN leagues, down with Mike Wallace, Jarvis Landry, and Allen Robinson. Ridiculous is what that is. Hey, if you can get Maclin in the eighth round, that represents awesome value, but I'd even be happy if you took him as early as the fifth or sixth round. Pro-tip - if you're playing with a bunch of guys on auto draft, he'll likely fall right into your hands in the eighth round, so at least there's some good news with him being ranked as low as he is.

Hate

Tight Ends Not Name Gronkowski or Graham --

Ugh. See Rodgers and Luck paragraph above. Or I'll just type it out in a slightly different way down here... Gronkowski and Graham represent a massive value gap between them and the rest of their position, so I'm fine with either of them in the first couple rounds. However, guys like Travis Kelce, Greg Olson, and Julius Thomas that are being drafted around the fifth round don't seem to be providing a maximized value over a tight end that you could be drafting in the tenth round (Zach Ertz is totally gonna get it going this year!!). On the other hand, the difference between a wide receiver/running back in the fifth round and the tenth round is going to be huge.

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions --

The Abdullah hype train has been very real the past couple weeks, but I struggle to see where his value is going to come. He's not going to get many touchdowns, as Joique Bell is one of the more accomplished goal line backs in the league, and he's not going to get as many touches as you'd hope, once again because of the aforementioned Joique Bell. I guess he provides some value as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but it isn't enough to warrant the sixth round (about) draft slot that he's been getting in most leagues. I do like Abdullah in the long term, but it's going to take time for him to win carries away from Bell, who I actually think is being drafted too low right now.

Defenses and Kickers --

Matthew Berry said this in his Love/Hate article, but I believe I said it in my Love/Hate article prior to last season, so if anything he's copying me. Please please please don't draft a defense or a kicker before the last couple rounds. Berry listed a whole catalog of people who he hates more than those who draft defenses and kickers in the first ten rounds, and it was all very cute. I'll say this, though, (and I mean it for real) I hate those sort of people more than I hate cleaning off the inside of peanut butter containers so they can go in the recycling. Sorry to one-up you Berry, but I hope you understand that I don't mean any harm because we're fighting on the same side. The opportunity for maximizing value in positions where value can most effectively be maximized is almost negligible when talking about defenses and kickers. In terms of defenses, it makes much more sense statistically to just pick up a defense that has an easy matchup every week, while for kickers, our ability to predict their year-to-year success is really really poor so you're better off (once again) keeping your eye on the waiver wire.

2014-2015 Fantasy Football Draft Do's and Don'ts

Football season is right around the corner, which means that Fantasy Football drafts are also right around the corner, which means that you are probably looking for an informed analyst to help with your draft strategy. Well... You've come to the right place. I'll be providing weekly fantasy football articles throughout the season and I guarantee that if you follow my advice you'll finish at the top of your league (disclaimer - fantasy football contains large amounts of luck and I have honestly no clue whether my insight will help your team or not). Before you can actually get to playing games, though, you need to have drafted a team, so here is my guide for your 2014-2015 Fantasy Football Draft.

Do - Draft a Running Back Very, Very High.

The running back position is extremely lacking in depth this year. After the first seven or eight there is a sharp drop, which is followed by another equally sharp drop around number 15. Simply put, if you don't pick up a running back in the first three rounds you are going to be living off of waiver-wire running backs, and that's not a very luxurious way to live. For those of you in two running back leagues, this advice is even more imperative - please pick a running back early.

Don't - Draft a Quarterback High (Unless His Name is Peyton Manning).

In my eight team league, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, and Jay Cutler are all still on waivers following the draft. With that much depth at the quarterback position, there is no reason for you to be reaching for Russell Wilson with your third pick when you can pick up a statistically similar quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, with one of your last picks. Obviously, if you find yourself at the end of the first round, Peyton Manning might be an alright pick, considering he will be by far the best fantasy quarterback this year, but outside of him there is no need to go quarterback early. Be patient.

Do - Proceed With Caution When Drafting a Tight End.

There is absolutely no denying that the tight end position has top end talent, but there are questions about how much of that talent there is. Jimmy Graham should be a first round pick, which makes sense, Julius Thomas will probably go in the third or fourth, and Vernon Davis and Rob Gronkowski will probably be off the board by the fifth round. After that, unless you find Jason Witten or Jordan Cameron oddly dropping to the tenth or eleventh rounds, I would recommend passing on those 12 or 13 rounders including the likes of Martellus Bennett, Greg Olsen, and Dennis Pitta. Instead, wait until you can pick up a guy like Zach Ertz or Jordan Reed in the 15th or 16th. The best case scenario would be to draft a tight end high, but if that's not possible, don't panic and reach on a mid-level tight end.

Don't - Go on Autodraft.

This is certainly the case every year, but it is even more so this year. Seeing as ESPN doesn't update their player rankings to keep up with injuries and suspensions, you may end up drafting Josh Gordon, Le'Veon Bell, Ray Rice, and Sam Bradford if you're unlucky enough. Outside of the obvious desire to avoid players who are going to miss significant portions of time, your team is just going to be better if you're the one drafting it. For example, I'd much rather have Peyton Manning over Eddie Lacy, but ESPN's fantasy rankings have Lacy ranked higher - bummer.

Do - Pick For Value Over Need.

Most leagues nowadays have at least three flex spots per team, so, even if you feel like you need to fill up that running back slot, if there aren't any top-tier backs available, snatch up that star wide receiver who managed to slide down the board a bit. Flex spots are just as important as other spots and should be treated that way when drafting. Additionally, trades will allow you to acquire players in positions of need after the draft and the additional talent that you managed to nab will help you in your bargaining.

Don't - Pick a Defense Before Eighth or Ninth Round (Not Even the Seahawks).

Defenses are a fairly hard thing to predict considering how many variables they have, so why would you waste one of your first few picks on something so questionable. A large part of what makes a defense perform well or not is the opposition - searching the waiver wire for defenses who are coming up against dismal offenses (the Jets and Jaguars were great for this last year) will often yield you pretty solid results, and you may even end up finding a defense that you end up keeping for the rest of the year (see: last year's Chief's defense).

Top 5 Fantasy Tight Ends

It's been a while since my last installment of this series, but I'm back, and so is the age of the receiving tight end.  This renaissance has largely been sparked by two of the best tight ends that the NFL has every seen: Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.  Though these two are the centerpiece of what the NFL has to offer, there is certainly a solid supporting cast including Julius Thomas, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten, Jordan Cameron, Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen, and Tony Gonzalez.

1. Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints
This former University of Miami basketball player has blossomed into a truly incredible tight end.  With enough speed to outrun linebackers and safeties, and the strength to overpower smaller cornerbacks, Graham is a mismatch for any defender.  With eleven touchdowns already this year, he is primed to rival, if not overtake Rob Gronkowski's record 17 touchdown catches in 2011.  In addition to averaging over a touchdown per game, Graham has also posted more than one hundred yards in already six of the ten games that he's played.  Simply put, Graham is undoubtedly the number one receiving tight end in the league right now.

2. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
Despite being injured for the first six weeks of the season, Gronk is only 15th in terms of fantasy points for tight ends.  This is a testament to how incredibly he has played in the last three weeks, compiling 292 yards and three touchdowns.  Even in the two weeks before that, when he was still partially injured, Gronk managed and impressive 141 yards.  With Tom Brady at quarterback, Gronkowski's numbers should only improve with his health, especially with the lack of other options in the Patriot's passing game.

3. Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos,
Thomas, another former basketball player, came out of nowhere this year and has established himself as Peyton Manning's favorite red zone target.  Averaging just under one touchdown per game, Thomas is a very consistent option, for even when he doesn't manage to compile a lot of yards, he usually manages to reward fantasy owners with a touchdown.  It is by no means a coincidence that the top three tight ends on this list belong to the top three quarterbacks in the NFL: Brees, Brady, and Manning.  In years to come, with Manning at the helm, Thomas could develop into a tight end that could challenge the currently untouchable combo of Graham and Gronkowski at the top of this list.

4. Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers
What has really hurt Davis this year is the inconsistent quarterback play from Colin Kaepernick.  When Kaepernick has performed, though, Davis has performed too.  Like Julius Thomas, Davis is averaging just under one touchdown per game.  Also like Thomas, more than once, touchdowns have concealed games that would otherwise be considered very poor for Davis.  This is not too take anything away from his great season, but it just outlines the fact that if his touchdown production stops, Davis could be in a fair bit of trouble, especially with the up-and-down quarterback play of Colin Kaepernick.

5. Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers
I know it, you're surprised, but you shouldn't be. I could have picked so many players for this final spot, and I chose Greg Olsen, but when you look at all the other players I could have picked, they all have obvious flaws, and Olsen doesn't.  For example, Jordan Cameron has to deal with the horrible quarterback play of Brandon Weeden, while Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten have to compete for targets among talented receiving cores, and Antonio Gates is simply not the player he was five years ago.  Greg Olsen has a talented quarterback, is the Panther's only real red zone threat, and is only 28 years old.  The results have showed too, as Olsen has four touchdowns in his last five games.

Week 10 Predictions

Game to Watch: Panthers @ 49ers: On Sunday, the two hottest teams in football (apart from Andy Reid's Chiefs) will battle late in the afternoon. The Carolina Panthers, led by quarterback Cam Newton, have flown under the radar, as they sit at 5-3, just one game behind the New Orleans Saints. The competition may be weak, but in their last four games, Carolina's offense has averaged 32.5 points per game, an astounding statistic. Cam Newton's passing statistics are not jaw-dropping, yet they are good enough to get the job done. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers' offense has been rolling ever since their terrible offensive performance against Indy. The running game ranks first in the league thanks to running back Frank Gore and quarterback Colin Kaepernick, as they have averaged 153.0 yards per game. The San Francisco 49ers have always been strong in their own stadium, so we see the 49ers beating Cam Newton and the Panthers on Sunday.
49ers over Panthers 37-31

Stand Out Performance: TE Jimmy Graham: Apart from a terrible performance against the New England Patriots, tight end Jimmy Graham has been incredibly consistent throughout the season. If Graham's incredible play continues, he will record 1,492 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns, where both would be NFL records among tight ends. The Dallas Cowboy pass defense has been absolutely atrocious in 2013, ranking 31st overall in passing yards allowed per game. Be prepared for a monster performance by this monster of a tight end.
TE Jimmy Graham: 145 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Player to Watch: QB Nick Foles: Who would have thought that Nick Foles, a third round pick out of Arizona in the 2012 NFL Draft, would tie the NFL record for passing touchdowns at 7. Sure, it was against the Oakland Raiders' defense, but 7 passing touchdowns is a sensational number that deserves to be discussed. The Eagles offense has been an emotional roller coaster so far this season, with its many ups and downs. The Eagles are going up against a very beat-up Packers defense. Nick Foles will not throw for 7 touchdowns, no how, no way; however, we can see Nick Foles passing for several touchdowns in a narrow victory over Green Bay.
QB Nick Foles: 285 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 1 INT

Week 10 Predictions:

Redskins over Vikings (Incorrect)

Seahawks over Falcons

Bengals over Ravens

Lions over Bears

Eagles over Packers

Colts over Rams

Giants over Raiders

Steelers over Bills

Titans over Jaguars

49ers over Panthers

Cardinals over Texans

Broncos over Chargers

Saints over Cowboys

Buccaneers over Dolphins

Last Week: 9-4

2013 Season: 92-41 (69.1%)

Week 6 Predictions

Game to Watch: Saints @ Patriots: After starting the 2013 regular season at 4-0, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were handed their first loss of the season by the Cincinnati Bengals. Brady had one of the worst games of his career, where his touchdown streak was napped at 52, two shy of the record held by Drew Brees. Rob Gronkowski was expected to play in tomorrow's game against New Orleans, but his most recent status is marked as 'doubtful'. Brady's wide receivers are constantly dropping balls, and if Gronk does not return in time for tomorrow's game, the Patriots' offense will be in  serious trouble. The New Orleans Saints, on the other hand, are 5-0, where the return of head coach Sean Payton has had a positive impact on this offense. Sunday's key player for the Saints will be tight end Jimmy Graham, who is off to an extraordinary start in 2013. The Patriots defense has struggled so far in defending big, physical tight ends, so Jimmy Graham will likely have a field day with the patriots' defenders. We predict the Saints to win with ease.
Saints over Patriots 35-23

Stand Out Performance: TE Jimmy Graham: Obviously, Peyton Manning against the Jacksonville Jaguars is the default pick for stand out performance in Week 6; however, the player to have the best week aside from Manning will be Jimmy Graham. Tight end Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints is unquestionably the greatest tight in the league. Graham is tall, strong, and has hands that allow him to catch any ball, no matter what the placement might be. The New England Patriots struggled against Tony Gonzalez, whose style of play is very similar to that of Jimmy Graham. Considering how well Graham has been doing in 2013, there is no way the Patriots will find a way to contain this incredibly talented offensive weapon.
TE Jimmy Graham: 150 receiving yards, 2 TD's

Player to Watch: RB Adrian Peterson: This past week, Adrian Peterson experienced an emotional roller coaster that resulted in the death of his two-year old son. Despite the many emotions Peterson is likely feeling, he insists that he will be playing this Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. In the words of Peterson, "I am able to release a lot of stress through sports." If Peterson sees the same amount of carries as a regular game, we expect him to have an incredible performance against the Panthers. Thoughts and prayers are with the Peterson family.
RB Adrian Peterson: 145 rushing yards, 2 TD's

Week 6 Predictions:

Bears over Giants (Correct)

Packers over Ravens

Bengals over Bills

Lions over Browns (OT)

Texans over Rams

Chiefs over Raiders

Vikings over Panthers

Steelers over Jets

Eagles over Buccaneers

Broncos over Jaguars

Seahawks over Titans

Saints over Patriots

49ers over Cardinals

Cowboys over Redskins

Colts over Chargers

Last Week: 9-5

2013 Season: 51-25 (67.1%)