AFC Championship Preview: Patriots at Broncos

     Nearly two months ago, we wrote about the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry in preparation for November's matchup between the Broncos and the Patriots. The Patriots went on to overcome a 24 point deficit and beat the Broncos in overtime. Now, Brady and the Patriots will try their luck a second time in order to beat Denver on the road in the AFC Championship Game. If Tom Brady is able to win this game, there will be no disputing his legacy, where a victory over Peyton will put the nail in the coffin regarding the Brady-Manning debate; however, a victory by Peyton will continue the argument, especially if he goes on to win the Super Bowl. The Broncos are the 5-point favorites entering Sunday's game, but it is always dangerous to go against Tom Brady in the playoffs, especially when his Patriots are the underdog.

New England Patriots: Last weekend, the Patriots played the Indianapolis Colts in the divisional round, a team that had beaten the 49ers, Broncos, and Seahawks in 2013 (all three of those teams are still in contention). The Patriots led the entire game, and won by a final score of 43-22; however, New England's running game carried the Patriots offense, where all five of New England's touchdowns came from running the ball. New England's running back LeGarrette Blount rushed for 166 yards and four touchdowns in Sunday's win, but don't be surprised if New England does not give Blount as many attempts against Denver. The running game will still be important for the Patriots so that they can keep Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos' offense off the field. Historically, Tom Brady has done well statistically when facing a team led by Peyton Manning, but Brady will no longer be the most important factor in order for New England to win on Sunday. Defensively, the Patriots picked off Andrew Luck four times on Sunday, but because of Indy's weak running game, a large amount of pressure was put on Luck to have a great game. Now, the Patriots will face a more well-rounded offense in the Denver Broncos, so it is reasonable to believe that Manning will not throw more than two interceptions. The Pats defense have lost star defenders like Vince Wilfork and Jerard Mayo, yet they have managed to apply reasonable pressure on the quarterback, as well as smother even the best wide receivers in the league thanks to cornerback Aqib Talib.

Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning has posted great numbers in the regular season throughout his entire career, but his legacy as a quarterback will be questioned if he finishes his career with just one Super Bowl ring. Manning's career passer rating of 76.7 in the Championship Round is his worst rating of any playoff round, where his completion percentage in the Championship Round falls to just 57.1%, as well as a TD/INT ratio of 1:1 (contrary to his rating of 5.5:1 during the 2013 regular season). There is also the belief that Peyton can not play in cold weather games, but if this myth is actually true, Peyton does not need to worry seeing that the temperature is expected to be 52 degrees at kickoff. With all the criticism against Peyton, as well as the immense pressure to beat Tom Brady in the playoffs, we expect Manning to have a reasonable game by his standards against the Patriots defense. Manning's ability to read defenses quickly, as well as his talented offensive line, helped Denver rank first in the league in sacks allowed during the regular season with 20. The Patriots defense is mediocre when it comes to applying pressure on the quarterback, but they certainly deserve credit after losing Wilfork and Mayo for the entire season. With Manning surrounded by extraordinary talent at the wide receiver position, including guys like Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Eric Decker, the Patriots will just have to pick their poison regarding who to focus on shutting down. Pats corner Aqib Talib has a reputation of smothering the best wide receivers in the league, but then again, he can only be in one place on the field at a time.

Prediction: With the temperature exceeding 50 degrees on Sunday, the great conditions will allow both quarterbacks to successfully throw the ball, which clearly gives the advantage to Peyton Manning. The Patriots will try and keep Manning off of the field for as long as possible, but in the end, we predict Matt Prater to kick the gaming winning field goal, sending Peyton Manning to his third career Super Bowl.
Broncos over Patriots 23-20

8 of the 14 Manning-Brady matchups have been decided by 7 or fewer points, including 6 of the last 7
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 13, 2014

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have met 3 times career in the postseason. Home team has won each time, AND won the Super Bowl.
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 13, 2014

Tom Brady-Peyton Manning Debate

As Tom Brady and the New England Patriots prepare to play Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in a Week 12 matchup, it is inevitable that people start to argue over who the better quarterback is: Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? There is no denying that these two quarterbacks are first-ballot Hall of Famers, and one could argue that they are in top 3 greatest quarterbacks of all time, alongside 49ers legend Joe Montana. But since Peyton Manning and Tom Brady entered the league at around the same time, people have been asking themselves, who is the better quarterback? With very different backgrounds, the two quarterbacks are relatively similar on the field, as they are both able to entirely take control of their offense. In this post, we will analyze the two quarterbacks, and offer our opinion by the end of the post, all in anticipation of Sunday night's game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots.

Tom Brady: Unlike Peyton Manning, Tom Brady was not drafted 1st overall in the draft; instead, Brady was selected 199th overall by the New England Patriots. In his second season with the Patriots, Tom Brady replaced an injured drew Bledsoe, and as we all know, he went on to win three Super Bowl within his first four years as a starter. Yet within that timespan, Brady's regular season statistics were not mind-boggling. Brady's passer rating averaged 87.7 per season within his first four years as a starter, as well as an average of 3,479 yards and 24 passing touchdowns per season. It is important to keep in mind Troy Brown and David Givens, where neither wide receiver ever eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards or over 6 receiving touchdowns within a single season. However, a solid running game and a dominant defense helped out Tom Brady in winning three Super Bowls with the Pats. Overtime, Tom Brady's regular season statistics improved, but everything changed when the New England Patriots traded for a 30-year old All-Pro wide receiver by the name of Randy Moss. Before traveling to New England, Randy Moss showed steady signs of decline, as he finished the 2006 season with 553 yards and 3 touchdowns. In 2007, Brady and the Patriots culminated an NFL Record 589 points on offense, where Tom Brady set the record for passing touchdowns with 50. despite their incredible season, Brady fell one game short of the perfect season after losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl. From that point onwards, Tom Brady culminated very impressive statistics, but a fourth Super Bowl eluded him, even after yet another trip to the Super Bowl in 2012. This year, Brady's receiving corp is clearly lacking talent after losing both Wes Welker and tight end Aaron Hernandez. The most used argument is that Tom Brady has two more Super Bowls than Manning, but there is also the fact that Brady's receiving corp is not nearly as talented as Manning's throughout both of their careers.

Including playoffs, Tom Brady is 9-4 in his career vs Peyton Manning.
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 21, 2013

Peyton Manning: This year, Peyton Manning has a legitimate shot at breaking Tom Brady's single season touchdown record, which currently stands at 50. Since acquiring Wes Welker from New England, Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense is on track to clobber all kinds of offensive records, even though Peyton Manning has had two surgeries on his neck and is on the wrong side of 35. Despite all of this, Peyton Manning is currently leading the league in passing yards per game (357.2), passing touchdowns (34), and passer rating with a minimum of 200 attempts (118.3). Manning has a reputation of dominating the regular season, where his career statistics in the regular season are far superior to Brady's. As we enter the postseason, Manning's statistics see a decrease in productivity. Manning is 9-11 in the postseason, with a whopping eight one-and-done postseason trips. Manning and the Broncos have a legitimate chance at winning Manning his second Super Bowl, which would add a whole other dimension to this argument. A large portion of Peyton Manning's success can be credited to his highly talented receiving corp over the course of his career. In Indianapolis, Manning was able to throw the ball to the likes of Marvin Harrison, a future Hall of Famer, Reggie Wayne, another future Hall of Famer, and tight end Dallas Clark. This season in Denver, Manning's receiving corp consists of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and running back Knowshon Moreno. Another augment against Peyton Manning is that he played inside a dome for the majority of his career, an environment that clearly favors the passing game; meanwhile, Brady has played in the hostile environment of New England, susceptible to any type of weather that comes his way. Outdoors, especially in very cold weather, we see Peyton Manning's numbers dip pretty significantly. To his credit, Manning has been able to rotate through several coaches throughout his career, but has still been able to produce great numbers.

Bottom Line: Like it says in the tweet above, Tom Brady is 9-4 in his career against Peyton Manning, but on Sunday Night, Manning and the Broncos are the clear favorites. As for the debate over the two quarterbacks, Tom Brady's three Super Bowls and 16-0 season in 2007 proves that he is a complete winning machine, and even though Manning has the better statistics, his environment was more suitable to the passing game. I take Brady over Manning in this one, but another Super Bowl for Manning and I would have to reconsider.