AFC Championship Preview: Patriots at Broncos

     Nearly two months ago, we wrote about the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry in preparation for November's matchup between the Broncos and the Patriots. The Patriots went on to overcome a 24 point deficit and beat the Broncos in overtime. Now, Brady and the Patriots will try their luck a second time in order to beat Denver on the road in the AFC Championship Game. If Tom Brady is able to win this game, there will be no disputing his legacy, where a victory over Peyton will put the nail in the coffin regarding the Brady-Manning debate; however, a victory by Peyton will continue the argument, especially if he goes on to win the Super Bowl. The Broncos are the 5-point favorites entering Sunday's game, but it is always dangerous to go against Tom Brady in the playoffs, especially when his Patriots are the underdog.

New England Patriots: Last weekend, the Patriots played the Indianapolis Colts in the divisional round, a team that had beaten the 49ers, Broncos, and Seahawks in 2013 (all three of those teams are still in contention). The Patriots led the entire game, and won by a final score of 43-22; however, New England's running game carried the Patriots offense, where all five of New England's touchdowns came from running the ball. New England's running back LeGarrette Blount rushed for 166 yards and four touchdowns in Sunday's win, but don't be surprised if New England does not give Blount as many attempts against Denver. The running game will still be important for the Patriots so that they can keep Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos' offense off the field. Historically, Tom Brady has done well statistically when facing a team led by Peyton Manning, but Brady will no longer be the most important factor in order for New England to win on Sunday. Defensively, the Patriots picked off Andrew Luck four times on Sunday, but because of Indy's weak running game, a large amount of pressure was put on Luck to have a great game. Now, the Patriots will face a more well-rounded offense in the Denver Broncos, so it is reasonable to believe that Manning will not throw more than two interceptions. The Pats defense have lost star defenders like Vince Wilfork and Jerard Mayo, yet they have managed to apply reasonable pressure on the quarterback, as well as smother even the best wide receivers in the league thanks to cornerback Aqib Talib.

Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning has posted great numbers in the regular season throughout his entire career, but his legacy as a quarterback will be questioned if he finishes his career with just one Super Bowl ring. Manning's career passer rating of 76.7 in the Championship Round is his worst rating of any playoff round, where his completion percentage in the Championship Round falls to just 57.1%, as well as a TD/INT ratio of 1:1 (contrary to his rating of 5.5:1 during the 2013 regular season). There is also the belief that Peyton can not play in cold weather games, but if this myth is actually true, Peyton does not need to worry seeing that the temperature is expected to be 52 degrees at kickoff. With all the criticism against Peyton, as well as the immense pressure to beat Tom Brady in the playoffs, we expect Manning to have a reasonable game by his standards against the Patriots defense. Manning's ability to read defenses quickly, as well as his talented offensive line, helped Denver rank first in the league in sacks allowed during the regular season with 20. The Patriots defense is mediocre when it comes to applying pressure on the quarterback, but they certainly deserve credit after losing Wilfork and Mayo for the entire season. With Manning surrounded by extraordinary talent at the wide receiver position, including guys like Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Eric Decker, the Patriots will just have to pick their poison regarding who to focus on shutting down. Pats corner Aqib Talib has a reputation of smothering the best wide receivers in the league, but then again, he can only be in one place on the field at a time.

Prediction: With the temperature exceeding 50 degrees on Sunday, the great conditions will allow both quarterbacks to successfully throw the ball, which clearly gives the advantage to Peyton Manning. The Patriots will try and keep Manning off of the field for as long as possible, but in the end, we predict Matt Prater to kick the gaming winning field goal, sending Peyton Manning to his third career Super Bowl.
Broncos over Patriots 23-20

8 of the 14 Manning-Brady matchups have been decided by 7 or fewer points, including 6 of the last 7
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 13, 2014

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have met 3 times career in the postseason. Home team has won each time, AND won the Super Bowl.
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 13, 2014

2014 NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Saints @ Seahawks: The last time Seattle played New Orleans, the Seahawks absolutely demolished Drew Brees and the Saints, beating the Saints by a score of 34-7. In that game, Russell Wilson passed for 310 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a passer rating above 135, while Brees passed for 147 yards and a score, both being his lowest totals of the season. The Saints are now trying to plan accordingly for the deafening noise within CenturyLink Field, where the Seahawks have lost only one game at home since December of 2011. Even worse for New Orleans, Brees and the Saints have a history of playing poorly on the road. Not only will the Saints' offense try to beat Seattle's 12 man, but Seattle's stingy defense as well. The Seahawks defensive unit led the league in total defense, passing yards allowed, rushing touchdowns allowed per game, and interceptions. Bottom line: the Saints are in trouble. We predict the Seahawks to roll past new Orleans into the NFC Championship Game.
Seahawks over Saints 30-13

Colts @ Patriots: The Indianapolis Colts were down 28 points to the Kansas City Chiefs in last week's playoff matchup, but thanks to an excellent comeback led by Andrew Luck, as well as a resilient defense, the Colts were able to come from behind and win the game. Last Sunday's win marked Andrew Luck's first career playoff win, and even though he threw 3 interceptions that created the deficit, Luck's five total touchdowns, as well as 443 passing yards, allowed the Colts to advance to the Divisional Round. Now, Indianapolis will travel to Foxboro in order to play Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Ever since the Colts lost Reggie Wayne, Luck's number one target in 2013 has clearly been T.Y. Hilton, who will likely be limited by New England's star cornerback Aqib Talib in Sunday's game. This means Luck will have to rely on his other wide receivers if the Colts wish to win through the air. Even worse for Indy, there is a 100% chance of rain in Foxboro on Sunday, meaning passing the ball will become more difficult. The rainstorm favors New England, whose running back trio of Steven Ridley, Shane Vereen, and LeGarrette Blount have all rushed for more than 100 yards in a single game this season. Lastly, Tom Brady's playoff experience makes New England the favorite to win this game.
Patriots over Colts 23-17

49ers @ Panthers: Colin Kaepernick walked into frozen Lambeau last weekend as the favorite and were able to beat the Packers, even though the temperature reached below zero with the wind. Now, the 49ers are favored to beat the Panthers, just the third time since 1990 that a home playoff team was the underdog in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Everyone expected Cam newton to have a great year statistically, but the main reason why Carolina has been so successful is their punishing defense. Luke Kuechly, a second year linebacker out of Boston College, totaled 156 tackles, 4 interceptions, and 2 sacks in 2013. After winning Defensive Rookie of the Year last season, Kuechly is one of the favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year this season, which would mark the second time a defensive player won Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in their first two seasons (only other player was Lawrence Taylor, who won Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in the same season). The Panthers defense as a whole ranked second in the league in both total defense and run defense, where the 49ers were not too far behind in either category. The two defenses in Sunday's matchup will both play very well, but in the end, we predict San Francisco to win this thanks to their playoff experience.
49ers over Panthers 27-20

Chargers @ Broncos: The San Diego Chargers pulled off the upset over the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend, even though Cincinnati was undefeated at home entering the Wild Card Round. Phillip Rivers has a history of choking in the playoffs, and even though his statistic were not incredible against the Bengas, his numbers are bound to increase now that he is going up against a weaker Broncos' defense. Denver lost star outside linebacker Von miller for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL, but this team is 7-0 in games where Miller is not int the starting lineup. Quarterback Peyton Manning finished 2013 with 5,477 passing yards, 55 touchdowns, and a passer rating of 115.1. Because of the first round bye, Wes Welker has had time to recover from his concussion, and he is listed as probable for Sunday's game. Welker, Thomas, and Decker create the best wide receiving corp in the NFL, which is why we predict Denver to beat the Chargers and move on to play Brady and the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
Broncos over Chargers 27-23

2014 NFL Wild Card Predictions

Chiefs @ Colts: After beating the Buffalo Bills in a Week 9 matchup, the Kansas City Chiefs were 9-0 going into their Week 10 bye; however, since Week 10, the Chiefs are 2-5, putting them at 11-5 on the year. One of those losses came against the Indianapolis Colts, where Andrew Luck and the Colts marched into Kansas City and won by a score of 23-7. In the last six games, Justin Houston, outside linebacker for Kansas City (seen on the right), has been watching from the sidelines, but in the 11 games that he played, he recorded 11.0 sacks with a forced fumble. Houston is expected to return in Saturday's game against Indy, along with outside linebacker Tamba Hali, who sat out last Sunday's game as well. The Colts' offensive line is ranked 6th in the league this season, so Kansas City's defense needs all the help it can get. Offensively, both teams have their key weapons that will need to play well in order for them to advance into the next round of the playoffs. Running back Jamaal Charles of Kansas City acquired 1,287 rushing yards with 19 total touchdowns this year, and the Colts have struggled at times when defending the run. Despite their inconsistency, Andrew Luck and the Colts are my pick to win on Saturday.
Colts over Chiefs 17-13

Saints @ Eagles: When playing at home, the New Orleans Saints as a team can be compared to Superman: indestructible, intimidating, and capable of disrupting any type of opposition. But just like Superman, the Saints have their kryptonite: road games. New Orleans has yet to lose a home game in 2013, which means all 5 of their losses this season came on the road. Saturday's game will be played in Philadelphia, and following a snow storm projected to hit Pennsylvania by Friday, the conditions will be very poor come Saturday. Poor conditions will mean it will be difficult to throw the ball, which clearly gives Philadelphia the advantage seeing that their running back, LeSean McCoy, is superior to any running back on the Saints roster. McCoy won the rushing title in 2013, as he rushed for 1,607 yards on 314 carries. With the temperature close to freezing on Saturday, Chip Kelly will likely avoid throwing the ball and give McCoy at least 25 carries against the Saints. In the event that both teams will be passing the ball a lot, Philly will still be able to keep up with the Saints' high-flying passing attack. In games where Foles had 15 attempts or more, the Eagles are 9-2, and seeing that Foles has a 119.2 passer rating, New Orleans' defense will have their hands full throughout the game.
Eagles over Saints 20-14

Chargers @ Bengals: The San Diego Chargers were able to make the playoffs following an overtime victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, even though the NFL released a statement saying there should have been a penalty against the Chargers during Kansas City's potentially game winning field goal that they missed. Had there been a penalty on the play, Ryan Succop of the Chiefs would have likely made the easier kick, causing the Chargers to miss the playoffs all together; however, this did not happen, and Chargers will go up against the heavily favored Bengals on the road. Cincinnati is undefeated at home this season, where their offense averages 37.3 points per game, and their defense allows just 16.8 per game. San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers has improved in every major statistical category compared to his 2012 numbers, as he has thrown for 4,478 yards and 32 touchdowns for a passer rating of 105.5 in 2013. Even Ryan Matthews improved in 2013, where he was finally able to play in all 16 games for the first time in his 4 year career. The Chargers were 4-4 on the road this season, and quarterback Philip Rivers is 3-4 in the postseason. We predict the Bengals to win this one with ease.
Bengals over Chargers 27-10

49ers @ Packers: Sunday afternoon's game between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers will be the best game that the Wild Card Round has to offer. The Green Bay Packers will look for revenge following San Francisco's dominant win over the Pack in in last year's playoffs. Last week, Aaron Rodgers returned to the starting lineup for the first time since November 4th, as he led Green Bay past Chicago in order to earn the fourth seed in the playoffs. Both teams are coming off of emotional victories, and this upcoming game will be a testament of their resilience following their emotionally draining victories in Week 17. The San Francisco 49ers are on a six game winning streak, where three of those wins came on the road. In the past three games, Colin Kaepernick has thrown five touchdown passes with no interceptions and an average of 236 passing yards per game. On the other hand, running back Frank Gore is coming off of his worst game of the season, where on thirteen carries he rushed for 14 yards with no touchdowns against the Cardinals. The Niners have relied heavily on their running game, and even though Gore was limited in the final game of the season, he can not be averaging 1.08 yards per carry in the playoffs. The last time these two teams played, the 49ers beat Green Bay in Week 1. We believe the same thing will happen this Sunday
49ers over Packers 30-23 (OT)