Pre-season Heisman Watch List

With the AP top 25 just released, it appears that season is open on every possible college football analysis. With that in mind, I am inclined to present my Heisman watch list for the 2014 college football season. There are no real surprises on this list, but keep in mind that for two years running, the Heisman winner has been a freshman, so I give somewhere around a 60-40 chance that I have here given the winner.

Marcus Mariota: QB, Oregon
Mariota was the Heisman frontrunner for most of 2013 before fading down the stretch, suggesting he definitely has the potential to win the award. The athletic junior passed for over 3,600 yards last year and threw 31 touchdowns. Although he has to work on his consistency as a passer (3 games last season completing under 50% of his passes), he makes up for it with almost one rushing touchdown per game. The high powered spread offense around Mariota is of course enormously talented, and tailored almost perfectly to his skill set. Mariota will post Heisman numbers this season, but his campaign will hinge, as per usual, on big wins and big moments. He probably won't be able to win the Heisman if he loses a game, except a BCS playoff game.

Jameis Winston: QB, Florida State

"We strong:" They certainly are this year 

I don't think he'll repeat, but he'll come close. People tend now to forget just how exciting Winston was for all of last season, from the first game. With over 4,000 passing yards in a season and a national championship, he's definitely not the Messiah, but he can play football really well. He set freshman season records for the NCAA in passing yards and touchdowns (with 40, also an ACC single season record.) Winston will have great stats on a great team, behind what is probably the best offensive line in the country. In short, I don't have him first on this list simply because it would be a statistical anomaly.


Bryce Petty: QB, Baylor
Last year's first time starter dropped a casual 4,200 passing yards with 4 interceptions. Not a typo there. At the helm of a shiny and outrageous Baylor offense, which averaged 52.4 points per game, he went to a BCS bowl game and suffered a disappointing loss. Unfortunately, Petty's competition probably won't prove stiff enough to merit a Heisman award, but at one point his stats may speak simply for themselves. In a new stadium, with an upcoming team, Petty is definitely a player to watch this year.

TJ Yeldon: RB, Alabama
Yeldon isn't found close to this high on most lists, but most arguments against him hinge around one point: He has many talented backs behind him, and if his fumbling issues rear their ugly head early in the season, he may not get enough carries to fuel a Heisman campaign. This isn't really a legitimate argument, as that can be said about many players, regardless of depth chart. I hereby concede that yes, if Yeldon fumbles the ball a lot, he won't win a Heisman. That isn't rocket science, nor is it exclusive to the running back from Alabama. He is also vying for a national championship, which means a lot when considering this award. Ultimately, he will prove to be an offensive focal point for possibly the best team in the country, which screams Heisman candidate.

Count on seeing a lot of that this year. 

Brett Hundley: QB, UCLA
He moves, he passed for over 3,000 yards, he leads his team well, (a team which may be contending for the first time ever) and he isn't yet a finished product. He also has the strength of schedule to present the potential Heisman moment, notably against Oregon in week seven. All this means I'd be foolish not to put him on my list. While the hype was a little overdone last year, it wasn't that far off the mark. Definitely a player you'll hear a lot about this season, and in a great conference he should have his share of the limelight.

Dashing, there's no other word for it. 

My dark horse candidate has to be Maty Mauk, Missouri's quarterback for the second half of last season. Missouri was predicted to finish last in the SEC east at the beginning of last season, and instead behind Mauk they maintained a top 10 national ranking for several weeks, eventually reaching #5, and played in the SEC championship game after an 11-1 regular season. There they lost 59-42, but posting 42 points against Auburn's defense is a win when we're talking about Heisman potential. Although he isn't a topic of hot discussion, keep an eye on Mauk this season, as he finished up last season with an impressive win over Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.

Notable omissions:
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
"He's athletic, and they lost Aaron Murray so he'll get tons of carries." Both of these are true, but this is a distinctly lame argument. He was also injured last year, which allows people to point to his decent numbers and say they suggest greatness. He'll play well, but he won't win, or stay in the conversation late.
Braxton Miller: QB, Ohio State
Again, injuries shouldn't insert players into this conversation. He hurt his knee and as a result missed 3 games, but 2,094 passing yards, even over that a shorter interval, does not suggest a Heisman winner. Of course he runs well, and plays for a good team, but the prediction I have seen of 2,500 passing yards, 1,000 rushing yards and 40 combined TD's lies entirely outside the realm of likelihood, in my opinion. However that would probably win the Heisman this year.
Mike Davis: RB, South Carolina
Another great player who won't win a Heisman. Steve Spurrier will rely on him heavily this season, but he's coming off an injury last year, and didn't post spectacular numbers. He's definitely explosive, but we have to be wary of pointing to on field flashiness as a predictor of a Heisman award. He needs great numbers, and probably won't get them. I will say that of these three, I can most easily see Davis staying in the conversation late.

College Football Storylines: The SEC

If the Pac 12 isn't the best conference in the country, the SEC is without a doubt. Certainly in the last ten years there can be no debate as to the dominance of these schools, with a run of seven straight national championships. This year, I rank the SEC just below the PAC 12, owing to their loss of virtually every talented quarterback in the conference last year. That and a disappointing bowl showing, from the national championship loss to Alabama's (of all teams!) loss to Oklahoma. But of course there will still be anywhere from 2-5 teams from the SEC in the AP top 10 poll this season, and coming off a well publicized SEC media day (or week) the timing is perfect to look at some issues of note from the conference this season. Mind you, if you missed the coverage you didn't miss much (at one point, the merits of different tie knots were discussed-let's call it an off year.) But regardless, these are just several things to watch for this year coming out of the conference.

That didn't take long

Auburn's quarterback play: Nick Marshall's name was mentioned a lot during ESPN's coverage of the SEC media day, which is interesting because he did not speak. After an incident involving marijuana possession, Marshall was not allowed to appear before the press by Tiger coach Gus Malzahn. Apparently, Marshall will face "consequences" following last week's pot citation. Malzahn declined to specify whether a first game suspension would be in the works, which incidentally is a good matchup
against Arkansas. The trendy option of late has been the half game suspension, and realistically that will be the end result. However, we have to remember we are talking about the starting quarterback of the supposedly second best team in the country last year, so by virtue of that fact alone this is something to note. Moreover, Marshall may well be the best quarterback in his conference this year, and is arguably the conference's most prominent player. It remains to be seen if he'll meet expectations.


TJ Yeldon's Heisman bid: This could well be the last season we enjoy the money sign double throat slash, but the good news is we'll be seeing it a lot. Yeldon's numbers last year: 1,235 yards rushing in over 200 attempts, with an average yards per carry of 6.0 and 14 touchdowns. He will flirt with the Heisman from the beginning this year, and expect at least one Tre Mason like game from him (the Auburn running back who had a 300 yard 4 touchdown game in the SEC championship.) Yeldon will be fun to watch this year, as a horse for yet another Alabama team with national title aspirations. Also keep an eye on Amari Cooper.

Dashing

Maty Mauk and Missouri's follow up: A conference that really lacks star power this year might find it in this bow tie sporting 195 lb sophomore, who stepped up brilliantly for Missouri after their starter James
Franklin went down halfway through the season. Mauk helped the Tigers to a spectacular 12-2 campaign, finishing the season ranked fifth in the country. Not many predicted this, but this year the Tigers will get a little more respect as they look to continue trending upwards. Look for Mauk to surprise plenty of defenses with his mobility, and without a really great quarterback in the conference he could perhaps lead Missouri to a conference championship. He caught everyone's attention with some self made comparisons to Johnny Manziel, so it'll be interesting to see if he can back it up.

LSU's offense will take a big step back this season. Led by Cam Cameron, they bid goodbye to Zach Mettenberger but can perhaps say hello to the run first offense so typical of an LSU team. Their star quarterback is not the only loss, as besides the 3,000 yard passer they lost 1,000 yards rushing in RB Jeremy Hill and 1,000 yards receiving each from Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. Their best returning receiver caught a grand total of seven passes last year. Say what you will about a strong freshman class, (highly praised Leonard Fournette was the best recruit at running back in the nation) they will score fewer points than last year's 35.8 per game, by a good margin.

The Iron Bowl will be a little less tame than usual, after last years astonishing Auburn victory-if you watch one college football game this year, make it this one, on November 29th in Tuscaloosa. Other games of note, in no particular order:
November 8th, Alabama at LSU (This game always seems to mean a lot, and look for LSU to improve upon last year's 38-17 defeat.)
September 13th, Georgia at South Carolina (Steve Spurrier's pre-season noise has been spot on)
November 29th, South Carolina at Clemson (The gamecocks have won five in a row in this one)
November 15th, Missouri at Texas A&M (I pick the Tigers, by a wide margin)

Heisman watch list: Maty Mauk, QB from Missouri, Alex Collins, RB from Arkansas, Mike Davis, RB from South Carolina, TJ Yeldon, RB from Alabama
Sleeper pick: Ole Miss Rebels
Conference champion: Alabama

In case you forgot..

My favorite part would be at the beginning, where he goes "And I guess if he misses it, Chris Davis can try to run it back…" Why yes, yes he can.