Week 13 Predictions

Game to Watch: Saints @ Seahawks: As we mentioned in an earlier post, this game is bound to be the same game seen in the NFC Championship Game later in the season. Both New Orleans and Seattle are off to spectacular starts, and a win on Monday Night would almost ensure the number one seed in the playoffs. The game is being played in Seattle, where the Seahawks have not lost a game in CenturyLink Field since December of 2011. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense has been absolutely spectacular, which also includes a fabulous running game led by Marshawn Lynch. Clearly the most valuable asset of this team is the defense, who have been impenetrable, particularly at home. Drew Brees and the Saints are leaving the safety of the Superdome to play the Seahawks outdoors. In the past, Drew Brees' spectacular numbers have seen a slight decrease when he plays outdoors, especially in poor conditions. The crowd in Seattle is always a factor in big games, so we predict the frightfully loud fans, mixed with Seattle well rounded team, will lead to a New Orleans Saints loss.
Prediction: Seahawks over Saints 23-13

Stand Out Performance: RB Adrian Peterson: Even though Adrian Peterson will likely fall short of the 2,000 yards rushing mark in 2013, he has already achieved 997 rushing yards with 10 rushing touchdowns. Last week, Peterson rushed for 146 yards and a score, whereas the defense he is facing this upcoming week, the Chicago Bears, allowed a whopping 196 yards and two touchdowns in their game against St. Louis last week. The last time Peterson played the Bears, Chicago forked up 100 rushing yards, but Peterson was unable to register a rushing touchdown that game. That will change on Sunday.
RB Adrian Peterson: 110 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns

Player to Watch: QB Robert Griffin III: The entire Robert Griffin III debate (to play, or not to play?) has taken a new turn following Washington's embarrassing loss to the 49ers. The Redskins are now 3.5 games out of the playoffs, and quarterback RGIII is clearly not playing like the same quarterback we saw last season. RGIII's passer rating in 2013 has dropped almost 20 points compared to his passer rating last season, and his 11 interceptions are currently ranked 9th in the league. Sunday will be a decisive game, as the Redskins coaching staff will need to decide between starting RGIII or Kirk Cousins in the following game.
QB Robert Griffin III: 225 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD, FUM

Week 13 Predictions:

Lions over Packers (Correct)

Cowboys over Raiders (Correct)

Steelers over Ravens (Incorrect)

Panthers over Buccaneers

Browns over Jaguars

Patriots over Texans

Colts over Titans

Bears over Vikings

Dolphins over Jets

Cardinals over Eagles

Bills over Falcons

49ers over Rams

Broncos over Chiefs

Bengals over Chargers

Giants over Redskins

Seahawks over Saints

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em (Week 12)

Start 'Em:
Rashad Jennings, RB, Oakland Raiders
In the three weeks that Darren McFadden has been injured, Jennings has dominated, posting two touchdowns and 340 rushing yards.  Additionally, with 19 carries per game during this spell, and a matchup against the Titan's 27th ranked run defense, all the pieces are in place for Jennings to have another fantastic week.

Aaron Dobson, WR, New England Patriots
Sunday night's blockbuster game between the Patriots and the Broncos is undoubtedly going to be a shootout, with two of the best quarterbacks ever to play the game, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, going up against each other.  Despite his early-season drop difficulties, Dobson has managed to jump Julian Edelman and Kenbrell Thompkins on the depth chart, and now lays claim to the role of Tom Brady's number one wide receiver.  He will still receive fewer targets than Gronkowski and Shane Vereen, but he should get enough balls headed his way to put in a good performance.

Scott Tolzien, QB, Green Bay Packers
The way the Minnesota pass defense is playing right now, I'd start Uncle Rico in my fantasy league if he was playing against them.  Even if Tolzien is not Aaron Rodgers, he still has loads of offensive weapons, and looks a pretty good pick against a Minnesota defense that has allowed more than one passing touchdown against them in all but two games.

Sit 'Em:
Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins
Miller has not lived up to the lofty expectations we had for him at the start of the year, but he has managed to provide a decent amount of consistency in a year that has seen very poor running back production.  Thus, he continues to be played in a number of leagues despite his low upside.  In the past two weeks, though, he only has eleven rushes for nineteen yards, as Daniel Thomas has emerged as the Dolphin's number one back.  In addition, Miller goes up against a top 5 Panther's defense this week.  Lack of touches and a tough matchup are not a good recipe for success; keep Miller on your bench this Sunday.

Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers
Steve Smith always seems to have a positive impact on the Panthers, whether he's making a clutch catch or requiring double coverage.  However, the play of Smith that has been so important to the Panthers this year, has not quite translated well to fantasy football.  He only has three touchdowns on the year, and has yet to record more than 70 yards.  Thus, with a tough matchup against the Dolphin's defense this week, Smith should be taking a rest on your bench.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins
Though his fantasy production has been great  in the past two weeks, I think its if fair to asses these games as outliers for Griffin.  In particular, last week Griffin struggled mightily against a lousy Eagle's defense before recording two long touchdowns late in the fourth quarter (one of which was a bit fluky).  If you watched the game, its was obvious that Griffin is not that same quarterback that he was last year, when he won rookie of the year.  If the Eagles were able to stifle RGIII, surely the sturdy 49er's defense will be up to the task.

Russell Wilson vs Robert Griffin III vs Andrew Luck

     The 2012 NFL Draft class produced one of the best group of quarterbacks in recent memory, where an astounding five quarterbacks from this particular draft class started on opening day last season. Three quarterbacks in particular were able to find success within their first season: Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, and Andrew Luck. With their second season quickly approaching, we will predict which quarterback will have the best statistical year in 2013.

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, the 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year, was clearly the most dominant rookie of the 2012 draft class. RGIII now holds the record for the highest passer rating of any rookie in NFL history (102.4), as he threw for 3,200 yards and 20 touchdowns. One of RGIII's most dangerous qualities is his ability to run; Griffin ran for 815 yards and 7 touchdowns, but his days of escaping the pocket may soon be over. RGIII underwent surgery on January 9th to repair a torn ACL and LCL, and though he will miss all four preseason games, RGIII will likely return by Week 1. Unfortunately for Griffin, head coach Mike Shanahan will certainly limit his quarterback's rushing attempts. RGIII is rather small considering how frequently he runs the ball, so injury will likely follow RGIII until he transforms into a pocket passer. Robert Griffin III has all the qualities needed to be a successful pocket passer, and with offensive weapons such as Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis, RGIII has the potential to be one of the best passing quarterbacks in the league.
2013 Projection: 3,850 yards, 30 touchdowns, 11 interceptions


Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: Entering the 2012 Draft, Andrew Luck was the clear favorite to be picked first overall by the Indianapolis Colts. With a big arm, the ability to evade tacklers, and leadership qualities, it was no surprise Andrew Luck was considered the number one prospect of the 2012 draft class. Andrew Luck was the opening day starter, and his most important accomplishment was an 11-5 record, earning Indianapolis a Wild Card berth. Andrew Luck broke the record for passing yards by a rookie in a single season after throwing for 4,374 yards. Other parts of his game need drastic improvement if he looks to win a Super Bowl with the Colts. Luck's completion percentage stood at just 54.1%, and his 76.5 passer rating put him behind quarterbacks such as Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder. The Indianapolis Colts rely heavily on their offense, and if Andrew Luck turns the ball over 28 times as he did last season, this offense will not get the chance to succeed.
2013 Projection: 4,350 yards, 29 touchdowns, 16 interceptions


Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: As a rookie, Russell Wilson gradually improved over the course of the season, and by year's end, he challenged RGIII as the league's best offensive rookie. In his final eight regular season games, Wilson passed for 1,652 yards with 16 touchdowns and just two interceptions. By the end of the regular season, Russell Wilson tied Peyton Manning's record for the most passing touchdowns by a rookie (26). Wilson's spectacular play carried over into the playoffs, as he led the Seahawks past Washington in the first round, yet despite passing for 385 yards with two touchdowns in the divisional round, Seattle lost 30-28 to the Atlanta Falcons. Wilson is an intelligent quarterback with great accuracy and impeccable mechanics. Wilson also uses his speed only when necessary, but it would be dangerous for him to consistently run the ball at just 5 feet 11 inches. The Seattle Seahawks traded for wide receiver Percy Harvin in the offseason, but a hip injury will keep Harvin on the sidelines until the playoffs. If Wilson is able to play all 16 games, the Seattle Seahawks will be a serious threat to dethrone San Francisco as the NFC West champion.
2013 Projection: 3,900 yards, 28 touchdowns, 14 interceptions


Bottom Line: Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III will both have great second seasons, with the advantage going to RGIII if he can stay healthy. As for Andrew Luck, we predict Luck will make great strides in his level of improvement, but he still needs more time to mature. 

NFL Award Predictions: Offensive Rookie of the Year

     Last April's draft class proved to have one of the more talented trio of passers in recent memory. Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck all wish to take home Offensive Rookie of the Year on February 2nd, but unfortunately, their can only be one winner.

QB Robert Griffin III: Out of the three quarterbacks competing, RGIII appeared to be the most disciplined, where he showed off his extraordinary accuracy by obtaining a 102.4 quarterback rating. Unlike Andrew Luck, RGIII threw just 5 interceptions in 15 games, as well as rush for over 800 yards with 7 scores. The former Heisman winner resurrected the Redskins franchise, bringing them back into contention before being bumped by Seattle in the Wild Card round. RGIII managed to stay consistent throughout the year, and if not for several injuries, he may have won this award in a landslide. 

QB Andrew Luck: The most impressive of Andrew Luck's statistics might be his ability to succeed even when the odds are against him. Luck was forced to play while a franchise coped with their head coach, Chuck Pagano, battling cancer. Andrew Luck had seven fourth quarter comebacks in 2012, and was also able to break the rookie record for passing yards with 4,374. The only problem with Andrew Luck was the high interception total (18 interceptions compared to 20 touchdowns). A fantastic rookie season will be followed by many more years of success, but it is unlikely Luck will win Rookie of the Year over Wilson and RGIII.

QB Russell Wilson: Unlike RGIII and Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson was the only rookie quarterback to make it into the Divisional Round of this season's playoffs. Wilson likely has the most talented team surrounding him, meaning out of the three quarterbacks, Russell Wilson had to do the least amount of work in order to lead Seattle back into the playoffs. Wilson did manage to tie Peyton Manning's rookie passing touchdown record at 26, and maintained a 100.0 passer rating throughout the season. Wilson is capable of scrambling when needed, similar to RGIII, but his slow start to the year hurts his case for Rookie of the Year.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction: Robert Griffin III

Fantasy Football: Quarterbacks (Week 8)

David Welker/Getty Images

1. Drew Brees: Even with a BYE week under his belt, Drew Brees, according to ESPN's standard scoring system, has the third most fantasy points as of Week 8. Unlike Rodgers and RGII whom are both ahead of him, Brees has yet to post single digit fantasy points. His average of 24.2 points per game is unprecedented, and with Jimmy Graham returning as a healthy starter, make sure your starting this guy for the next 10 games.
(Stats: 2,097 passing yards, 19 total TDs, 145 fantasy points)

2. Robert Griffin III: After seven weeks of football, there is no longer any dispute of who the better rookie quarterback is after their first season; Andrew Luck or RGIII. Griffin has been extraordinary in fantasy football, making all of his fantasy owners happy each and every Sunday. However, the only reason he did not earn the number one spot over Brees is his injury concern. Like any quarterback who enjoys running from the pocket, there is always a huge fantasy risk for their owners.
(Stats: 1,601 passing yards, 13 total TDs, 158 fantasy points)

3. Aaron Rodgers: Many were somewhat disappointed by Rodgers after flopping in his first three games. Then he picked up from where he left off last season, throwing for six touchdowns against the elite Houston defense. He proved the 38 fantasy point game was no fluke by throwing for three more touchdowns against St. Louis. Rodgers may have started off modestly, but he has finally hit his stride.
(Stats: 1,979 passing yards, 19 total TDs, 155 fantasy points)

4. Tom Brady: Similar to our number one quarterback (Drew Brees), Tom Brady has yet to fall beneath the ten point mark in a specific week. His numbers are not quite off the charts, but consistency is a large part of his fantasy value.
(Stats: 2,104 passing yards, 14 total TDs, 134 fantasy points)

5. Matt Ryan: After a hot start to his 2012 season, Ryan's stats have gradually decreased since Week 4, and his 8 fantasy points last Sunday against Oakland hurts his stock. However, Ryan has one of the most talented receiving corps in the league surrounding him, so a stellar performance against Philly next week would not be a surprise.
(Stats: 1,756 passing yards, 15 total TDs, 118 fantasy points)