Sunday, November 9, 2014

NFL Midseason Predictions: Super Bowl Update

While the final seeding for the playoffs is hazy, it becomes easier to predict the teams who will earn a spot in the postseason by the halfway point of the season. At this point in time, the Seahawks, 49ers, and Saints are all on track to miss the postseason, whereas the Bills, Cardinals, and Cowboys are all projected to finish the regular season with a spot in the playoffs. While this is certain to change, the NFL is not surprising in that there will always be surprises. At the beginning of the season, we predicted the New England Patriots to beat Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers by a final score of 24-23. While we still believe that the Patriots will make an appearance in the Super Bowl (if, and only if, Rob Gronkowski is healthy throughout the playoffs), we are changing the NFC Champion after watching football for the past 8 weeks from San Fran to the Green Bay Packers. Now, let's go into further detail regarding this quarterback battle for the ages, as well as predicting the new champions of football.

Patriots Offense
Tom Brady experienced a statistically historic October. With Rob Gronkowski returning from injury at the start of the season, the Patriots offense has gradually improved over the course of the year. Julian Edelman remains Tom Brady’s favorite target, but Bill Belicheck is slowly increasing Gronk’s workload in the offense, which is directly proportional to the Patriots improving record overtime. Recently acquired targets Brandon LaFell and Tim Wright have both had their bright spots in 2014, and it will be interesting to see how the fare later in the season. While running back Steven Ridley may be out for the rest of the season, Jonas Gray and Shane Vereen have stepped up nicely to fill the void.
Packers Offense
While the Packers are not currently atop the NFC North standings right now, Green Bay is always a threat to win the division as long as Aaron Rodgers is leading this offense. Wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are both experiencing incredible seasons thus far, where Cobb is averaging one touchdown per game. Running back Eddie Lacy is experiencing a down year as of this point in time, but seeing how outstanding his season was in 2013, we at least understand that the potential to do well is present.

Patriots Defense
The New England Patriots secondary might just be the best we've seen from head coach Bill Belichick since he took over for the Patriots nearly 15 years ago. Darrelle Revis is beginning to look like his former self, and fellow cornerback Brandon Browner has already recorded 6 tackles and an interception. While Jerard Mayo's injury will be significant in the long run, the Patriots certainly managed to shut down the Denver Broncos offense last week. The win over Denver was even without their best pass rusher Chandler Jones, but luckily, he will be ready to go come playoff time.

Packers Defense
The Green Bay Packers run defense currently ranks dead last in the entire National Football League. There are currently several big names on this defensive roster, such as Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, and AJ Hawk, who are all very talented defensive players, but clearly, they add little to the run defense.  Meanwhile, the secondary is incredibly youthful, where four out of the five members of the secondary are 25 years old or younger. Yet clearly, it has paid off, seeing how they rank eighth in passing yards allowed, as well as fourth in passing touchdowns allowed.

Quarterback Tom Brady is on a mission to win his fourth Super Bowl after losing in both 2007 and 2011. The New England Patriots showed they are capable of limiting great quarterbacks, as seen with the game against Denver, so count on Bill Belichick on creating a game plan meant to suppress Aaron Rodgers as much as possible. Meanwhile, Tom Brady will be able to pick away at this young Green Bay secondary, as New England manages to win their fourth Super Bowl in 14 years.
Patriots over Packers 30-27 

2014-2015 Start 'Em Sit 'Em (Week 10)

Start 'Em:

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons - Remember what happened last time Matt Ryan faced the Buccaneers defense - he threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns and had to be pulled in the second half before he could hand out even more of a beating. Sure, Ryan's looked increasingly worse after that game, but he still is yet to have less than ten fantasy points in a game. Also, the Buccaneers pass defense has actually continued to go downhill since that Thursday night game in week three. Start Ryan this week and your setting yourself up for a low risk high reward scenario. I like that.

Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos - Some may wonder why I have Hillman on this list considering he's been a top ten running back over the past few weeks. Others will remember that Montee Ball is supposed to return to the Broncos' offense this week, which would result in a decreased workload for Hillman. However, to those of you who are worried about the return of Ball, I urge you to ignore your instincts this week and start Hillman, who, in my opinion, has completely won over the Broncos' organization and will still see a huge role in the offense. Additionally, Hillman gets to go up against the putrid Raiders defense that has given up nine rushing touchdowns in just eight games this year.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers - I like the way the Eagles' defense has played this year, especially up front, but they still have a huge weakness, and that's dealing with big athletic wide receivers. Kelvin Benjamin, is exactly that, a big athletic wide receiver, and should absolutely torch Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher on Monday night. Don't be thrown off by his poor showings the last two weeks - Benjamin is starting quality this week.

Sit 'Em:

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions - Picking Stafford here is tough because he is getting back Megatron and Reggie Bush this week, but it's all about matchup. The Lions face the Dolphins, who have been the toughest fantasy matchup for quarterbacks and have been on an absolute roll recently, only allowing 14 total points against in the last three weeks. Love the situation, but hate the matchup, and ultimately I think the poor matchup will win out.

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets - Ivory only got eight carries for a measly twenty two yards last week against the Chiefs, which is concerning for this week's game against the Steelers. It is very likely that the Jets will find themselves down early and will end up airing out the ball much more than Ivory fantasy owners would want. Honestly, another single digit carry game is a large possibility, and unless Ivory gets a touchdown, that's not going to get it done. Even though there are a lot of running back byes this week, I'd recommend you try to get Ivory out of your starting lineup for the time being.

Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals - Carson Palmer's return for the Cardinals has spelled disaster for Floyd, as he only has four catches for 36 yards in his last two games while John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald have flourished. Floyd does have an alright matchup against the Rams this week, but would be an incredibly risky start seeing as the only way he's going to score points is on the deep ball.